Poland and Ukraine are increasing this year’s production of thermal coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, preparing for colder months as Europe grapples with an energy security crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

Thermal coal use as fuel for power plants will need to plummet if the world wants to meet its goals to reach net zero emissions by mid-century.

But, as Russian gas flows to Europe have fallen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s sanctions on Moscow, the continent is scrambling for alternative supplies.

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Today, the consensus among leading forecasters is that we can expect continued rapid growth in renewables. Wind and solar power provided 6 per cent of the world’s electricity in 2017, according to the International Energy Agency. By 2040, they are projected to provide 21 per cent in the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which reflects governments’ announced policies and targets. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, showing a system on track to provide universal energy access while limiting the threat from climate change, they provide 38 per cent.

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The lukewarm response to the report of the commission set up to advise on plans for the elimination of coal use in Germany is understandable. The commission’s conclusions push the end of coal use out to 2038. The plan is cautious enough to have secured the support even of those members of the commission representing the coal industry and the main coal producing regions.

Criticism of the report has predictably come from groups such as Climate Alliance Germany and Friends of the Earth, which have said that the plan will not meet the Paris climate agreement targets, and that the phasing of the reduction through the 2020s needs to be defined in detail.

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For the global energy industry, China’s importance is hard to overstate. It is the world’s largest oil importer and is on course to be the largest gas importer this year. It accounts for about half the world’s coal consumption and almost a third of global investment in “clean” energy. If the Chinese economy were to go into a downturn, producers of energy commodities and technologies all around the world would be affected. China accounted for just over a quarter of the increase in world oil demand last year, according to Opec, and is expected to make about the same contribution this year, with its own consumption growth slowing in tandem with the global total.

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1) Global coal demand will remain stable

World coal consumption has never been higher than it was in 2013-14, but it seems that that level was a plateau rather than a peak. After declining over 2014-16, global coal demand started to pick up in 2017, and rose again last year. From now until at least 2023, the International Energy Agency has predicted, it will remain roughly stable, rising or falling only slightly each year.

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Since 2000, the world has doubled its coal-fired power capacity to 2,000 gigawatts (GW) after explosive growth in China and India. Another 200GW is being built and 450GW is planned. More recently, 200GW has closed due to a wave of retirements across the EU and US. Another 170GW is set to retire by 2030 and 13 of the world’s 77 coal-powered countries plan a total phaseout.

Meanwhile, electricity generated from coal peaked in 2014, so the expanding fleet is running fewer hours than ever.

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