Today, the consensus among leading forecasters is that we can expect continued rapid growth in renewables. Wind and solar power provided 6 per cent of the world’s electricity in 2017, according to the International Energy Agency. By 2040, they are projected to provide 21 per cent in the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which reflects governments’ announced policies and targets. In the Sustainable Development Scenario, showing a system on track to provide universal energy access while limiting the threat from climate change, they provide 38 per cent.

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The lukewarm response to the report of the commission set up to advise on plans for the elimination of coal use in Germany is understandable. The commission’s conclusions push the end of coal use out to 2038. The plan is cautious enough to have secured the support even of those members of the commission representing the coal industry and the main coal producing regions.

Criticism of the report has predictably come from groups such as Climate Alliance Germany and Friends of the Earth, which have said that the plan will not meet the Paris climate agreement targets, and that the phasing of the reduction through the 2020s needs to be defined in detail.

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1) Global coal demand will remain stable

World coal consumption has never been higher than it was in 2013-14, but it seems that that level was a plateau rather than a peak. After declining over 2014-16, global coal demand started to pick up in 2017, and rose again last year. From now until at least 2023, the International Energy Agency has predicted, it will remain roughly stable, rising or falling only slightly each year.

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