{"id":94954,"date":"2019-06-27T01:14:56","date_gmt":"2019-06-26T22:14:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=94954"},"modified":"2019-06-27T01:17:14","modified_gmt":"2019-06-26T22:17:14","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-26-06-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-26-06-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 26.06.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD’de ham petrol stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015faret eden verinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Akaryak\u0131t \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinden kalyak fiyat\u0131na 15 kuru\u015f, fuel oil fiyat\u0131na 17 kuru\u015f ve y\u00fcksek k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc fuel oil fiyat\u0131na 19 kuru\u015f zam yap\u0131ld\u0131. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– EPDK, ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi denetimlerde mevzuata ayk\u0131r\u0131l\u0131k tespiti yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 12 \u015firkete toplam 4.347.143 TL idari para cezas\u0131 kesti. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Lisanss\u0131z elektrik \u00fcreticilerinden, santralin i\u015fletmedeki ilk 10 y\u0131l\u0131 boyunca sisteme veri\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m bedeli al\u0131nmayacak. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131ndan 32 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce t\u00fcketen T\u00fcrkiye, bug\u00fcnden itibaren 2020\u2019nin kaynaklar\u0131na bor\u00e7lanmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– EPDK\u2019dan lisanss\u0131z yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in uygulanacak da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m ve i\u015flem bedellerini g\u00fcncelledi, Alman ve \u00c7inli \u015firketler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrikli ara\u00e7lar i\u00e7in \u015firket kuruyor.<\/strong><\/h1>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 \"\"ortalamas\u0131 327<\/strong>.88<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 500<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 15<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 16<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 169<\/strong>.99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 05<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 343<\/strong>.34<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 42<\/strong>.56<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 17<\/strong>, linyit % 13<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 19<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 36<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 12<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak hidro elektrik santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 269<\/strong>.48<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 32,865<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 74<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 86<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 91<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 267<\/strong>.1<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 304<\/strong>.99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 14<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 15<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 171<\/strong>.98<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 05<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 266<\/strong>.6<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc piyasas\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD’de ham petrol stoklar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015faret eden verinin ard\u0131ndan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[35344,52773,52774,52772,3323,671,1363,830,51608,1259,43643,52373,52374,49519,52375,42701,42490,52377,42485,42486,42484,46702,42488,42489,52376,1079,45271,50069,61,34979,343,19638,50070,8304,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,52674,19,41345,52379,1046,52259,52776,52380,23416,52775,4034,3514,40289,40290,2012,52372,33107,52603,52605,81,347,41603,10059,34937,52424,52381,39932,39352,5406,52378,26590,6154,39351,2794,52604,7508,52583,34570],"views":406,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94954"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94954\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}