{"id":94719,"date":"2019-06-22T08:15:31","date_gmt":"2019-06-22T05:15:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=94719"},"modified":"2019-06-22T08:25:29","modified_gmt":"2019-06-22T05:25:29","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-20-06-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-20-06-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 20.06.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan elektrik enerjisi piyasas\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/span><\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD’de ham petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve Fed’in g\u00fcvercin tutumunun ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakan\u0131 Fatih D\u00f6nmez, Yavuz Gemisi\u2019nin ilk sondaj\u0131n\u0131 K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n do\u011fusunda, Karpaz 1 Kuyusunda ilk sondaj\u0131na ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131 Karadeniz \u00fczerinden T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yacak T\u00fcrkAk\u0131m\u2019\u0131n K\u0131y\u0131k\u00f6y’deki al\u0131m terminalinin % 80’den fazlas\u0131 tamamland\u0131. <\/strong><\/h1>\n

– Avrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir Altyap\u0131 Grubu Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Nandita Parshad “T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yenilenebilir enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne odakland\u0131k” a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda bulundu.<\/strong><\/h1>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 267<\/strong>.1<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"304<\/strong>.99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 14<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 15<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 171<\/strong>.98<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 05<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 266<\/strong>.6<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda –2<\/strong>.38<\/strong> TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 13<\/strong>, linyit % 15<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 20<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 41<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 6<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak hidro elektrik santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 223<\/strong>.14<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 301<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 21<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 47<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 07<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 249<\/strong>.38<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 223<\/strong>.14<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 301<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 21<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 47<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 07<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 249<\/strong>.38<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01<\/strong>.06<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 20<\/strong>.06<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,510<\/strong>.56<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 65,610<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>\n

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<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan elektrik enerjisi piyasas\u0131na dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD’de ham petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve Fed’in g\u00fcvercin tutumunun […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94725,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[1258,51608,1259,43643,52373,52374,49519,52375,42701,42490,52377,42485,42486,42484,46702,42488,42489,52376,1079,45271,50069,61,34979,343,19638,50070,8304,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,41345,52379,1046,52259,422,750,27530,52380,52584,40289,40290,52372,33107,41603,52424,52381,39932,39352,1772,52378,39351,34599,7508,52583],"views":489,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94719"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94719\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94725"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}