{"id":93406,"date":"2019-05-27T21:45:42","date_gmt":"2019-05-27T18:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=93406"},"modified":"2019-05-28T23:57:30","modified_gmt":"2019-05-28T20:57:30","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-27-05-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-27-05-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 27.05.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n

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– Petrol ABD’de arz\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ile kazanc\u0131n\u0131 korudu. <\/strong><\/h2>\n

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– EPDK akaryak\u0131t sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131 bayi ve ana da\u011f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131 aras\u0131nda sabit \u015fekilde pay etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. <\/strong><\/h2>\n

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– Suudi \u015firketi ARAMCO, hisselerinin %70\u2019ini devralmak suretiyle SABIC\u2019in tek kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elde edecek.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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– T\u00fcrkiye Elektro Mobilite Derne\u011fi, Antalya’da \u015fehrin baz\u0131 noktalar\u0131na dizel ara\u00e7lar\u0131n girmesinin yasaklanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in giri\u015fimlere ba\u015fl\u0131yor. <\/strong><\/h2>\n

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– Gazprom, T\u00fcrk \u015firketi Bat\u0131 Hatt\u0131 Do\u011falgaz A.\u015e.’nin fiyat anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tahkimde a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 davay\u0131 kazand\u0131.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 247<\/strong>.86<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"307<\/strong>.26<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 08<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 09<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 5<\/strong>.01<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 07<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 273<\/strong>.68<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 36<\/strong>.32<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 10<\/strong>, linyit % 13<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 10<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 58<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 3<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve \u00fcretimin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak hidro elektrik santrallerinde beklenmesi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 250<\/strong>.61<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 31,328<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 85<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 88<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 222<\/strong>.84<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 307<\/strong>.2<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 08<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 09<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 5<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 07<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 279<\/strong>.83<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01<\/strong>.05<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 27<\/strong>.05<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,511<\/strong>.05<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 45,804<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay SOLAK \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;   – Petrol ABD’de arz\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ile kazanc\u0131n\u0131 korudu.   – EPDK akaryak\u0131t […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[42489,1079,45271,50069,61,34979,343,19638,50070,8304,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,35376,2485,1009,40289,40290,39352,39351],"views":519,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93406"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93406\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}