{"id":91167,"date":"2019-04-17T00:43:08","date_gmt":"2019-04-16T21:43:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=91167"},"modified":"2019-04-17T00:44:13","modified_gmt":"2019-04-16T21:44:13","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-16-04-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-16-04-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 16.04.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir;<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

– Petrol ABD’de artan stoklar ve talep endi\u015feleri ile kayb\u0131n\u0131 korudu. <\/strong><\/p>\n

– Likit petrol gaz\u0131 (LPG) otogaz fiyatlar\u0131na bu gece yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere litre ba\u015f\u0131na 7 kuru\u015f zam geldi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Rus do\u011falgaz \u00fcreticisi Novatek, y\u0131ll\u0131k 5 milyon ton kapasiteli bir LNG tesisi daha kurmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. <\/strong><\/p>\n

– Avustralya\u2019da ticari \u00e7at\u0131lara daha esnek ve hesapl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler sunmak amac\u0131yla kurulumu kolay ve yer de\u011fi\u015ftirebilen 5 kW\u2019l\u0131k prefabrik g\u00fcne\u015f panelleri \u00fcretildi. <\/strong><\/p>\n

– Alpet\u2019in I\u011fd\u0131r\u2019daki ilk sat\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 unvan\u0131na sahip ALD Petrol\u2019e ait akaryak\u0131t istasyonu hizmete a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, Be\u015f GES projesi daha lisans sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 178<\/strong>.25<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"303<\/strong>.96<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 20<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 21<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 7<\/strong>.67<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 03<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 04<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 278<\/strong>.67<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda –5<\/strong>.97<\/strong> TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 10<\/strong>, linyit % 14<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 13<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 53<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 6<\/strong>, jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve hidro elektrik santrallerinde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f beklentisi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 183<\/strong>.19<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 32,802<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 82<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 98<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 88<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 132<\/strong>.43<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 292<\/strong>.52<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 20<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 21<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 16<\/strong>.61<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 04<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 05<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 214<\/strong>.62<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01<\/strong>.03<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 16<\/strong>.04<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,473<\/strong>.63<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 45,442<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Petrol ABD’de artan stoklar ve talep endi\u015feleri ile kayb\u0131n\u0131 korudu. – Likit petrol gaz\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91173,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[42483,42490,42485,42486,42484,42488,42489,34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,19,25591,67,1009,750,40289,40290,1377,39932,39352,1787,39351],"views":550,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91167"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91167"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91167\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91173"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}