{"id":89548,"date":"2019-03-20T00:45:51","date_gmt":"2019-03-19T21:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=89548"},"modified":"2019-03-20T00:50:59","modified_gmt":"2019-03-19T21:50:59","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-19-03-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-19-03-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 19.03.2019 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler\u00a0\u015fu \u015fekildedir; <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

– Petrol y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti.<\/strong><\/p>\n

– \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Hasan Ruhani, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u0130ran\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulayan Amerikal\u0131 yetkililere kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ran Mahkemelerinin karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan uluslararas\u0131 mahkemelerde dava a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. <\/strong><\/p>\n

– Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Abdullah Tancan, EPDK\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn uzun s\u00fcreden beri bekledi\u011fi ayl\u0131k mahsupla\u015fma d\u00fczenlemesini bitirdi\u011fini ve gelecek hafta kurul onay\u0131na sunulup yasala\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Japon otomobil \u015firketi Toyota, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l emisyon oran\u0131n\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re kilometrede 1,3 gram d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek otomotiv markalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emisyon ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 yakalad\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Rusya\u2019dan do\u011frudan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve devam\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019ya do\u011falgaz\u0131 ula\u015ft\u0131racak olan T\u00fcrkAk\u0131m\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k deniz kesimiyle kara \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ba\u011flant\u0131lar ba\u015far\u0131yla tamamland\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Bali\u2019de turistlere \u00e7evre vergisi uygulanacak.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 301<\/strong>.02<\/strong> TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"313<\/strong>.62<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 09<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 10<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 258<\/strong>.59<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 03<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 04<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 307<\/strong>.62<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 5<\/strong>.18<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 18<\/strong>, linyit % 14<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 17<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 40<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 6<\/strong>, jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve hidro elektrik santrallerinde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f beklentisi<\/strong> ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 264<\/strong>.45<\/strong> TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 33,644<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % –15<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 99<\/strong> olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 88<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 281<\/strong>.55<\/strong> TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 318<\/strong>.15<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 19<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 20<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 126<\/strong>.5<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 03<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 04<\/strong>:00<\/strong> saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17<\/strong>:00<\/strong> – 22<\/strong>:00<\/strong>) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 315<\/strong>.25<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01<\/strong>.03<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> \u2013 19<\/strong>.03<\/strong>.2019<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1,491<\/strong>.97<\/strong> TL\/1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 45,999<\/strong> x1000<\/strong> sm3<\/strong> olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \u2013\u00a0tumay.solak@enerjigazetesi.ist<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler\u00a0\u015fu \u015fekildedir; – Petrol y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyretti. – \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Hasan Ruhani, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u0130ran\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131m […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89554,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[42483,42490,42485,42486,42484,42488,42489,34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,19,25591,67,1009,750,1377,39932,1787,39351],"views":623,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89548"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89548"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89548\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/89554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89548"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89548"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89548"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}