{"id":8753,"date":"2013-03-25T11:28:29","date_gmt":"2013-03-25T08:28:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=8753"},"modified":"2013-03-25T11:28:36","modified_gmt":"2013-03-25T08:28:36","slug":"global-enerji-talebi-2030a-kadar-6-artacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/global-enerji-talebi-2030a-kadar-6-artacak\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Global Enerji Talebi 2030\u2019a Kadar %36 Artacak…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

BP\u2019nin Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030 Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, enerji verimlili\u011findeki art\u0131\u015flara ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnyada enerji talebi 2030’a kadar y\u00fczde 36 oran\u0131nda artacak.<\/strong><\/p>\n

BP, enerjide yeni trendler hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 veren Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030 Raporu\u2019nu (Energy Outlook 2030) yay\u0131mlad\u0131.
\nUzman analistler ve akademisyenler i\u015fbirli\u011finde haz\u0131rlanan rapora g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel enerji talebi, y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 yava\u015flamakla birlikte, OECD d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerde ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki yirmi y\u0131lda artmaya devam edecek. S\u00f6z konusu rapora g\u00f6re enerji verimlili\u011finde art\u0131\u015f ve yenilenebilir enerjide g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme de \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada enerji talebi, 2030\u2019a kadar y\u00fczde 36 oran\u0131nda artacak. Talep edilen enerji miktar\u0131n\u0131n, 12 milyar ton petrolden 16.6 milyar tona ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, neredeyse tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin talebindeki y\u00fckseli\u015finden kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin enerji talebi 5.6 milyar ton petrolden, 5.8 milyar tona y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, OECD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yer alan \u00fclkelerde ise 6.4 milyar tondan, 10.9 milyar tona \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

ABD Petrol \u00dcretiminde \u0130lk S\u0131raya Yerle\u015fecek<\/strong><\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019n\u0131n petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n, kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcretiminin etkisiyle 2030\u2019da d\u00fcnyada toplam b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 65 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.
\nB\u00f6lgesel olarak art\u0131\u015fta en \u00f6n s\u0131rada gelmesi beklenen ABD\u2019nin, 2013\u2019te ham petrol arz\u0131nda, OPEC \u00fclkelerinin \u00fcretimdeki kesintilerinin de etkisiyle, Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya\u2019y\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019nin enerjide artan \u00fcretiminin, 2030\u2019da kendi kendine yeterli seviyeye ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin 2030\u2019da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131, net ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70 azalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Enerji \u00fcretiminin t\u00fcketimi kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 99\u2019a ula\u015facak. ABD, Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, d\u00fcnyada petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n 3\u2019te 1\u2019ini kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.
\nN\u00fcfus ve gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131, artan enerji talebinin arkas\u0131ndaki temel fakt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2030\u2019a kadar, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 8.3 milyara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1.3 milyar insan\u0131n enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2030\u2019daki d\u00fcnya gelirinin ise 2011 seviyesindekinin iki kat\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. OECD\u2019de yer almayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta seviyedeki ekonomilerin, 2030\u2019daki n\u00fcfusun art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90 olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilen raporda, h\u0131zl\u0131 sanayile\u015fme ve kentle\u015fmeden dolay\u0131, bu \u00fclkelerin global gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 70, enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015fta ise y\u00fczde 90 oran\u0131nda pay\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Enerji t\u00fcketiminde en fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde olaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin sanayide ilerlemesinin bu art\u0131\u015fta \u00f6nemli bir etkisi bulunaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn enerji talebi oran\u0131n\u0131n, 2030\u2019da, toplam talep edilen enerjinin y\u00fczde 57\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn Pazar Pay\u0131 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in 2030\u2019da en fazla enerji ithal eden konumda olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tahminlere yer verilen raporda, bu \u00fclkenin enerji ithalat oran\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm Avrupa \u00fclkelerine denk d\u00fc\u015fecek. 2017\u2019ye kadar en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u0131na sahip \u00fclke olarak ABD ile yer de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00c7in\u2019in, enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011finin alt\u0131 \u00e7iziliyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da t\u00fcm fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131ndaki ihracat\u0131yla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumunda olaca\u011f\u0131, net enerji ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da 2013\u2019y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci diliminde, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 petrol \u00fcretiminde ge\u00e7ece\u011fi, ancak Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n 2027\u2019de yeniden en fazla petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclke konumuna gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, 2030\u2019da petrol ihracat\u0131, tahmini olarak 2010 seviyesinin y\u00fczde 17 yukar\u0131s\u0131nda olacak. Afrika da artan bir \u015fekilde \u00f6nemli fosil yak\u0131t\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

Raporda, enerji \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan kaynak t\u00fcrlerinin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin de tahminler yer al\u0131yor. Petrolde artan fiyatlar ve teknolojik yenilikler, global enerji dengelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirecek. 1970\u2019lerdeki petrol fiyat\u0131nda ya\u015fanan \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan, birincil enerji t\u00fcketimindeki pay\u0131 1973\u2019te y\u00fczde 48 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen petrolde, bu oran\u0131n 1985\u2019de y\u00fczde 39\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkati \u00e7ekilen raporda, yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7en fiyatlar\u0131n, petrol\u00fcn ekonomik olarak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Bu nedenle 2011\u2019de daha da daralan petrol pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20 y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 28\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi tahmin ediliyor. Petrol\u00fcn sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin, 2011\u2019de y\u00fczde 4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen elektrik \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

En h\u0131zl\u0131 artan enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc ise yenilenebilir yak\u0131tlar\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr enerjide \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131n, 2011 ve 2030 aras\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 7.6 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer yak\u0131tta, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,6, hidroelektrikte ise y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Hidroelektrik ve n\u00fckleer enerji, 2030\u2019daki toplam enerji arz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 17\u2019lik pay\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Fosil yak\u0131tlar aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 beklenen ise y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik oranla gaz, bunu ise y\u00fczde 1,2\u2019lik oranla k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve y\u00fczde 0,8\u2019lik oranla da petrol\u00fcn takip etmesi bekleniyor. Kaya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ise 2011\u2019den 2030\u2019a kadar toplam global enerji arz\u0131nda be\u015finci s\u0131rada yer almas\u0131 bekleniyor. Kaya petrol\u00fc ve yenilenebilir enerjideki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde yine de enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Energy World<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.BP\u2019nin Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030 Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, enerji verimlili\u011findeki art\u0131\u015flara ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnyada enerji talebi 2030’a kadar y\u00fczde 36 oran\u0131nda artacak. BP, enerjide yeni trendler […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8754,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,52,47,44],"tags":[853,68,63,3851,67,988,12,3850,70,168,2041,1377,59,105],"views":654,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8753"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8753"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8757,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8753\/revisions\/8757"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8754"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}