{"id":83749,"date":"2018-12-20T22:48:33","date_gmt":"2018-12-20T19:48:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=83749"},"modified":"2018-12-20T22:52:29","modified_gmt":"2018-12-20T19:52:29","slug":"petrokimya-sektorunun-gelecegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petrokimya-sektorunun-gelecegi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petrokimya Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn Gelece\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Petrokimya \u00dcr\u00fcnleri Art\u0131k Her Yerde\u2026<\/h1>\n

Petrol ve gaz\u0131 her t\u00fcrl\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcr\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren plastik, g\u00fcbre, ambalaj, giysi, dijital cihaz, t\u0131bbi ekipman, deterjan veya lastik gibi petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri modern toplumlar\u0131n ayr\u0131lmaz bir par\u00e7as\u0131 haline geldi.<\/strong>\u00a0G\u00fcnl\u00fck ya\u015famlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in kritik olan \u00fcr\u00fcnlere ek olarak, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi panelleri, r\u00fczg\u00e2r t\u00fcrbini kanatlar\u0131, bataryalar, binalar i\u00e7in \u0131s\u0131 yal\u0131t\u0131m\u0131 ve elektrikli ta\u015f\u0131t par\u00e7alar\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere modern enerji sisteminin bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde de petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri yer \"\"almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel enerji sisteminin \u00f6nemli bir bile\u015feni olan petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin \u00f6nemi daha da artmakta.\u00a0<\/strong>Plasti\u011fe olan talep, biny\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana neredeyse ikiye katlanarak di\u011fer t\u00fcm d\u00f6kme malzemeleri (\u00e7elik, al\u00fcminyum veya \u00e7imento gibi) geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri, Avrupa ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomiler \u015fu anda 20 kata kadar plastik ve 10 kata kadar g\u00fcbre kullan\u0131yor. Hindistan, Endonezya ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler gibi ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme, d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeline i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol ve do\u011fal gazdan \u00fcretilen kimyasallar, hammaddelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; geri kalan\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve biyok\u00fctleden geliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0Petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn enerji t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 hammadde olarak kullan\u0131lan yak\u0131tlardan olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n

\u2026 ve en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen petrol t\u00fcketimi kayna\u011f\u0131 haline geldiler<\/p>\n

Petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn artan rol\u00fc, k\u00fcresel enerji tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki kilit \u201ck\u00f6r noktalardan\u201d biri.<\/strong>\u00a0Bu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi ve karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin artan \u00f6nemine ra\u011fmen, di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re daha az dikkat \u00e7ekmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Petrokimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fc h\u0131zla k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin en b\u00fcy\u00fck fakt\u00f6r\u00fc haline geliyor.\u00a0<\/strong>2030\u2019a kadar petrol talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ve kamyonlar, havac\u0131l\u0131k ve nakliye \u00f6n\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 2050\u2019ye kadar yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hesaba kat\u0131yor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u015fu anda bask\u0131n petrol talebi kaynaklar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle yolcu ta\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131, daha iyi yak\u0131t ekonomisi, artan toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma, alternatif yak\u0131tlar ve elektrifikasyon kombinasyonu sayesinde \u00f6nemini yitiriyor. Petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri, ayr\u0131ca 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 56 milyar metrek\u00fcp daha fazla do\u011falgaz t\u00fcketmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yorlar. Bu rakam da bug\u00fcn Kanada\u2019n\u0131n toplam gaz t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131na e\u015fit oluyor.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in Halk Cumhuriyeti ve Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri de dahil \u00fclkeler, en \u00e7ok yak\u0131n vadeli kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 elde edecekler; uzun vadeli b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netiliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nin k\u00fcresel pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n, etilen (buhar k\u0131rma) oran\u0131 i\u00e7in 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar %22\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019nun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD, bol miktarda do\u011fal gaz tedari\u011fi sayesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli etan eri\u015fiminde hammadde avantaj\u0131na sahip. Bu avantaj, her iki b\u00f6lgenin de k\u0131sa ve orta vadede en b\u00fcy\u00fck etan bazl\u0131 kimyasal ihracat pay\u0131n\u0131 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019de k\u00f6m\u00fcr bazl\u0131 metanol-olefin kapasitesi 2017 ve 2025 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Uzun vadede, Avrupa ve Amerika\u2019dan gelen pay azal\u0131rken, Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu, y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli kimyasal \u00fcretim pazar pay\u0131n\u0131 %10 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar, Hindistan, G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu, k\u00fcresel amonyak \u00fcretiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unu olu\u015fturuyor olacak.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir k\u00fcresel ekonomi, y\u00fckselen n\u00fcfus ve teknolojik geli\u015fimin birle\u015fimi, petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri i\u00e7in artan bir talep haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/strong>\u00a0Her ne kadar \u00f6zellikle Avrupa, Japonya ve Kore ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde ve tek kullan\u0131ml\u0131k plastik malzemelerin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015flar meydana gelse de geli\u015fmekte olan plastik t\u00fcketim ekonomilerinin keskin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu \u00e7abalardan \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r basacak. Alternatifleri bulmakta ya\u015fanan zorluk, petrokimyasal \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc genel talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin temelini olu\u015fturan di\u011fer bir fakt\u00f6r.<\/p>\n

Hem Petrokimya Hem de Petrol ve Gaz End\u00fcstrileri i\u00e7in Geli\u015fen Bir Alan<\/p>\n

End\u00fcstrideki artan k\u00fcresel rekabet, kimyasal hammaddeler i\u00e7in yeni arz dinamikleri taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendiriliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0\u0130ki y\u0131l boyunca durgunluk ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften sonra ABD, \u015feyl gaz devrimi sayesinde kimyasal \u00fcretim i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir b\u00f6lge olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ABD, etan bazl\u0131 petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcretme kapasitesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019\u0131na ev sahipli\u011fi yap\u0131yor. Ortado\u011fu, Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran liderli\u011findeki \u00f6nemli petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgede ilan edilen bir dizi yeni projeyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli \u015fampiyon olmaya devam ediyor. \u00c7in ve Avrupa, her biri nafta bazl\u0131 y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli kimyasallar i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel kapasitenin d\u00f6rtte birini olu\u015fturmakta. Ancak, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 stoklama nedeniyle daha hafif hammaddelere dayanan \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kapasiteye sahipler. Bir zamanlar spek\u00fclatif bir \u00f6neri olan \u00c7in\u2019in k\u00f6kl\u00fc k\u00f6m\u00fcr temelli kimya end\u00fcstrisi, \u015fimdi s\u00fcrekli teknolojik geli\u015fmeleri b\u00fcnyesinde topluyor. Hindistan, artan i\u00e7 talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in mevcut k\u00fcresel kapasitenin sadece %4\u2019\u00fcnden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek.<\/p>\n

Petrol \u015firketleri giderek petrokimyasal de\u011fer zincirinde b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/strong>\u00a0Daha yava\u015f benzin talebi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, kimyasal \u00fcr\u00fcnler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ve cazip k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, petrol \u015firketleri, petrokimya pazarlar\u0131yla olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131 daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Her ne kadar teknoloji \u015fimdilik zorlu olsa da geleneksel rafinaj \/ petrokimya operasyonlar\u0131na alternatifler sunan yeni, do\u011frudan ham petrol-kimyasal s\u00fcre\u00e7 rotalar\u0131 da devreye girebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, Suudi Aramco ve SABIC k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce Singapur\u2019daki mevcut tesisin be\u015f kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde olan, 0,4 mb \/ d\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fck ham madde-kimyasal projesini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kimyasallar\u0131n \u00dcretimi, Kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve Yok Edilmesi \u00c7evresel Zarar Boyutuna Sahip \u2026<\/p>\n

Petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnleri bir\u00e7ok iklim, hava kalitesi ve su kirlili\u011fi sorunlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/strong>Petrokimyasal \u00fcr\u00fcnler, \u00e7e\u015fitli kesimlerde artan say\u0131da uygulama, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir enerji sistemi i\u00e7in kritik olan temiz teknolojiler dahil olmak \u00fczere topluma \u00f6nemli faydalar sa\u011flar. Ancak, bu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcretimi, kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve yok edilmesi, ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken \u00e7e\u015fitli s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik sorunlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7maktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, \u00e7elik ve \u00e7imento sekt\u00f6rlerinin toplam\u0131 kadar enerji t\u00fcketmesine ra\u011fmen,\u00a0<\/strong>her iki sekt\u00f6rden daha az CO2<\/sub>\u00a0yayar.<\/strong>\u00a0Yine de bu, t\u00fcm end\u00fcstriyel sekt\u00f6r CO2\u00a0<\/sub>emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %18\u2019i veya toplam yanma ile ili\u015fkili CO2\u00a0<\/sub>emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n %5\u2019i olan yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 GtCO2\u2019ye denk gelmektedir. Bu k\u0131smen, kimya end\u00fcstrisinin di\u011fer a\u011f\u0131r sanayilere g\u00f6re daha fazla petrol ve gaz t\u00fcketti\u011fi i\u00e7indir. Di\u011fer bir katk\u0131 fakt\u00f6r\u00fc, kimyasal hammaddelerde bulunan karbonun \u00e7o\u011funlukla nihai \u00fcr\u00fcnlere (plastik gibi) kilitlenmesi ve \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin yaln\u0131zca yanmas\u0131 veya ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2026 Ancak \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcmler Ula\u015f\u0131labilir ve Uygun Maliyetlidir<\/p>\n

Kimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in iddial\u0131 ama ula\u015f\u0131labilir bir yol sa\u011flayan Temiz Teknoloji Senaryosunda (CTS), \u00e7evresel etkiler geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde azalmakta.<\/strong>\u00a0CTS\u2019de, birincil kimyasal \u00fcretimden kaynaklanan hava kirleticileri 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar neredeyse %90 oran\u0131nda azalmakta; su talebi temel senaryoda yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. CTS ayr\u0131ca geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 i\u00e7in at\u0131k y\u00f6netimi iyile\u015ftirmelerini vurgulamakta, b\u00f6ylece temel senaryoya g\u00f6re 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00fcm\u00fclatif, okyanusa ba\u011fl\u0131 plastik at\u0131klar\u0131 yar\u0131dan daha fazla bir de\u011fere indirgemesi, her y\u0131l d\u00fcnya okyanuslar\u0131na s\u0131zan 10 milyon tonluk plastik at\u0131klar\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m.<\/p>\n

2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar, artan plastik geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ve yeniden kullan\u0131m\u0131ndan kaynaklanan k\u00fcm\u00fclatif CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emisyonu tasarrufu, bug\u00fcn kimyasal sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn y\u0131ll\u0131k emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131na e\u015fittir.<\/strong>\u00a0CTS\u2019de, plastik at\u0131klar\u0131n k\u00fcresel ortalama toplama oran\u0131, 2050\u2019ye kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 kat artar. Bu, geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f plastiklerin \u00fcretiminin artmas\u0131na ve mevcut e\u011filimlere k\u0131yasla y\u00fcksek de\u011ferli kimyasal talepte yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019lik bir k\u00fcm\u00fclatif tasarruf sa\u011flar. Bu sonu\u00e7 \u00f6nemli bir teknik sorun te\u015fkil ediyor. Ortalama toplama oranlar\u0131n\u0131 maksimum pratik seviyeye y\u00fckseltmek i\u00e7in geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor.<\/p>\n

Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn temiz ge\u00e7i\u015fi, karbon yakalama, kullan\u0131m ve depolama (CCUS), katalitik s\u00fcre\u00e7ler ve k\u00f6m\u00fcrden do\u011fal gaza ge\u00e7i\u015f ile y\u00f6netiliyor.<\/strong>\u00a0CCUS i\u00e7in en uygun maliyetli f\u0131rsatlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131 kimya sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bulunabilir. Geleneksel s\u00fcre\u00e7 rotalar\u0131na katalitik alternatifler, birim \u00fcretim ba\u015f\u0131na %15\u2019ten fazla enerji tasarrufu sa\u011flayabilir. Hem amonyak hem de metanol \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in k\u00f6m\u00fcrden do\u011fal gaza ge\u00e7i\u015fler hem proses emisyonlar\u0131nda hem de enerji yo\u011funlu\u011funda azalmaya neden olur.<\/p>\n

Petrokimyasal hammaddeler i\u00e7in gerekli olan daha hafif petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin pay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, CTS\u2019de rafine edilmeye y\u00f6nelik zorluklar do\u011furabilir.<\/strong>\u00a0Plastik t\u00fcketimi ile ilgili petrol talebi, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar karayolu yolcu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakabilir. Bunun, halihaz\u0131rda hem a\u011f\u0131r hem de hafif \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in kurulmu\u015f olan rafineriler i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 vard\u0131r. Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019ndeki hafif s\u0131k\u0131 petrol (LTO) \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, bu sorunun \u00fcstesinden gelmesi bekleniyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc LTO, daha hafif petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fcretmek i\u00e7in daha kolay bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131. Ancak, bu katk\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi de LTO\u2019nun kaynak taban\u0131n\u0131n, teknolojisinin ve piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:\u00a0\u201cThe Future of Petrochemicals\u201d, International Energy Agency, 2018<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde Petrokimya \u00dcr\u00fcnleri Art\u0131k Her Yerde\u2026 Petrol ve gaz\u0131 her t\u00fcrl\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcr\u00fcne d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcren plastik, g\u00fcbre, ambalaj, giysi, dijital cihaz, t\u0131bbi ekipman, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":83751,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53,44],"tags":[43047,10207,43036,43014,43027,43021,43039,43022,43049,43050,43069,43048,43045,43043,43065,43051,43041,43018,43042,43016,884,43044,43028,43023,42491,41345,67,1009,43046,43071,42781,11380,43015,43055,43052,43053,43054,17392,5392,43031,1224,43038,43032,43029,43034,18928,29929,24075,24289,43019,43070,42666,43063,43037,43059,43058,43057,43060,43062,43061,40413,43024,28565,39474,11822,43030,43035,2415,43025,43013,43066,15222,43020,31327,43064,39746,43033,43040,43056,43017,43068,43067,43026],"views":1381,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83749"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83749"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83749\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/83751"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}