{"id":81068,"date":"2018-10-26T20:36:43","date_gmt":"2018-10-26T17:36:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=81068"},"modified":"2018-10-26T20:36:43","modified_gmt":"2018-10-26T17:36:43","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-25-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-25-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 25.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; G\u00fcney Koreli LG Chem, \u00c7in’de kuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu\u011fu ikinci elektrikli ara\u00e7 bataryas\u0131 fabrikas\u0131n\u0131n temelini att\u0131, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, \u00f6zt\u00fcketim i\u00e7in yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131ndan elektrik \u00fcretimini geli\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in Fransa\u2019ya 200 milyon euroluk fon verdi, OECD, d\u00fcnyada hammadde kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 2060’ta iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ciddi \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmazsa bu durumun hava, su ve toprak kirlili\u011fine yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor, IEA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, enerji verimlili\u011fi alan\u0131nda sa\u011flanan ilerleme ve elektrikli ara\u00e7lar\u0131n petrol talebini azaltmas\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, petrol ve gaz \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin gelir kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeleri gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi, R\u00fczgar enerjisi santralleri toplam \u00fcretimin neredeyse % 35\u2019ini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi, D\u00fcnya Kaynaklar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (WRI) T\u00fcrkiye S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u015eehirler taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen \u201cYa\u015fanabilir \u015eehirler Sempozyumu\u201d bu y\u0131l 6\u2019\u0131nc\u0131 kez d\u00fczenlendi, \u00c7evreye duyarl\u0131 otellerin elektrik deste\u011fi kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 312,43 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"<\/strong>359,06<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 17:00 \u2013 18:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 174,00 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 02:00 \u2013 03:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 349,30<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 7,12 <\/strong>TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 35,<\/strong> linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 24 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 13<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 6, <\/strong>jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i itibariyle<\/strong> t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, hidro elektrik santrallerinde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 306,41 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 29.386<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 79<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 91 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 86<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 91<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 301,80 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 370,13 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 10:00 \u2013 11:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 174,71 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 04:00 \u2013 05:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 325,19<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 25.10.2018 <\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.589,53<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 129.863<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; G\u00fcney Koreli LG Chem, \u00c7in’de kuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu\u011fu ikinci elektrikli ara\u00e7 bataryas\u0131 fabrikas\u0131n\u0131n temelini att\u0131, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":81073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,40289,40290,39352,39351],"views":987,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81068"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81068"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81068\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":81074,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81068\/revisions\/81074"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/81073"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81068"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81068"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81068"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}