{"id":80813,"date":"2018-10-23T10:07:48","date_gmt":"2018-10-23T07:07:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=80813"},"modified":"2018-10-25T23:43:35","modified_gmt":"2018-10-25T20:43:35","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analiz-22-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analiz-22-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analiz \u2013 ( 22.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Alman Ekonomi ve Enerji Bakan\u0131 Peter Altmaier, 24 Ekim’de Alman i\u015f adamlar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir heyetle T\u00fcrkiye’ye ziyaret ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek, T\u00fcrkiye’ye tek kalemde yap\u0131lan en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olan ‘Star Rafinerisi’ hizmete al\u0131nd\u0131, Akfen Yenilenebilir Enerji, 13 ye\u015fil enerji projesi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye’nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck r\u00fczg\u00e2r ve g\u00fcne\u015f kredisini ald\u0131, Amasya b\u00f6lgesinde 4 jeotermal kaynak arama ve i\u015fletme sahas\u0131 i\u00e7in ihaleye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lacak, ABD\u2019li elektrikli otomobil \u00fcreticisi Tesla, \u00c7in\u2019in \u015eangay kentinde kuraca\u011f\u0131 fabrika i\u00e7in, 973 milyon y\u00fcen (140,51 milyon ABD-dolar\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 864.885 metrekarelik arsa sat\u0131n ald\u0131, \u00c7in 2020\u2019de sokak lambalar\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmak ve elektrik harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smak ad\u0131na uzaya \u2018yapay Ay\u2019 f\u0131rlatmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.\"\"
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 328,28 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 362,61<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 174,00 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 03:00 \u2013 04:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 357,62<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 10,13 <\/strong>TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 37,<\/strong> linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 24 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 15<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 5, <\/strong>jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i itibariyle<\/strong> t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve termik enerji santrallerinde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 323,62 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 28.873<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 78<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 92 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 86<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 90<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 336,25 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 379,86 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 08:00 \u2013 09:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 215,12 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 04:00 \u2013 05:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 345,68<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 22.10.2018 <\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.594,73<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 114.132<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Alman Ekonomi ve Enerji Bakan\u0131 Peter Altmaier, 24 Ekim’de Alman i\u015f adamlar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fck bir heyetle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":80819,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,40289,40290,39352,39351],"views":621,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80813"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80813"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80813\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80961,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80813\/revisions\/80961"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80819"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}