{"id":80506,"date":"2018-10-16T19:36:22","date_gmt":"2018-10-16T16:36:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=80506"},"modified":"2018-10-16T19:36:22","modified_gmt":"2018-10-16T16:36:22","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-15-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-15-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 15.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; T\u00fcrkiye Elektrik \u0130letim A.\u015e. (TE\u0130A\u015e) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re Kapasite Mekanizmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011fal gaza dayal\u0131 elektrik \u00fcretimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren 28 termik santral A\u011fustos ay\u0131 i\u00e7in toplamda 112 milyon 337 bin TL\u2019lik gelir elde edecek, TEMA Vakf\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan 17 Ekim\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan Alpu Termik Santrali ve K\u00f6m\u00fcr \u0130\u015fletmesi \u00f6zelle\u015ftirme ihalesi \u00f6ncesinde bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yay\u0131nland\u0131, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin elektrikli ara\u00e7 pil \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in milyarlaca avroluk destek planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia edildi, Garanti Bankas\u0131 Proje Finansman M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Ahmet Tohma, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde yap\u0131lacak yap\u0131sal reformlarla birlikte tekrardan aya\u011fa kald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p t\u00fcnelin ucundaki \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve Sabanc\u0131 \u00dcniversitesi \u0130stanbul Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji ve \u0130klim Merkezi (IICEC) Onursal Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dr. Fatih Birol, stratejik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131 ziyaret etti.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 326,44 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 356,73<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 264,99 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak \"\"04:00 \u2013 05:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 323,52<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 20,75 <\/strong>TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 38,<\/strong> linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 25 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 9<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 2, <\/strong>jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i itibariyle<\/strong> t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve termik santrallerdeki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 333,47 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 26.698<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 76<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 69 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 86<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 311,15 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 379,92 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 14:00 \u2013 15:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 175,42 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 04:00 \u2013 05:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 310,66<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 15.10.2018 <\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.620,69<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 63,694<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; T\u00fcrkiye Elektrik \u0130letim A.\u015e. (TE\u0130A\u015e) a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re Kapasite Mekanizmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011fal gaza dayal\u0131 elektrik […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80511,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":989,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80506"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80506"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80506\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80512,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80506\/revisions\/80512"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80511"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}