{"id":80355,"date":"2018-10-14T01:13:06","date_gmt":"2018-10-13T22:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=80355"},"modified":"2018-10-14T01:15:35","modified_gmt":"2018-10-13T22:15:35","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-12-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-12-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 (12.10.2018)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Piyasalar\u0131 \u0130\u015fletme Anonim \u015eirketi (EP\u0130A\u015e) YEKDEM kapsam\u0131ndaki lisanss\u0131z elektrik \u00fcretim santrallerinin verilerini yay\u0131nlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131, Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakan\u0131 Fatih D\u00f6nmez, T\u00fcrkiye’de son y\u0131llarda yap\u0131lan arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla k\u00f6m\u00fcr rezervlerinin % 100’den fazla art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti, T\u00dcS\u0130AD Enerji \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Grubu \u00dcyesi ve Borusan EnBW Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Mehmet Acarla, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yenilenebilir enerji potansiyelinin sadece r\u00fczgar, g\u00fcne\u015f ve jeotermal kaynaklar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 120 GW oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek bu potansiyelin de\u011ferlendirilmesinin YEKA ihaleleriyle olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti, \u00c7in\u2019in elektrik depolama kapasitesini y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yedi ay\u0131nda 729 MW seviyesine getirdi, Enerji Ticareti Derne\u011fi (ETD) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tamer \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r, enerji ticaretinde son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan ikili anla\u015fmalardaki iptallerin ko\u015fullar ne olursa olsun ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 \"\"<\/strong>ortalamas\u0131 301,47\u00a0<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi.Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 349,54<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131\u00a0174,00<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 03:00 \u2013 04:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 317,70<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 27,70<\/strong>TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 33,\u00a0<\/strong>linyit % 18<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 26\u00a0<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 7<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar% 13,\u00a0<\/strong>jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f,\u00a0hafta sonu itibariyle t\u00fcketim talebindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve r\u00fczgar santrallerinde \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 320,69\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 35.647<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0% 79<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck %79\u00a0<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 86<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 298,18\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 343,00\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 185,95\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 314,12<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 12.10.2018\u00a0<\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)\u00a01.624,36<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplamger\u00e7ekle\u015fene\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 44.574\u00a0<\/strong>x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Piyasalar\u0131 \u0130\u015fletme Anonim \u015eirketi (EP\u0130A\u015e) YEKDEM kapsam\u0131ndaki lisanss\u0131z elektrik \u00fcretim santrallerinin verilerini yay\u0131nlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131, Enerji […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":1216,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80355"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80355"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80363,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80355\/revisions\/80363"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}