{"id":80110,"date":"2018-10-09T10:31:06","date_gmt":"2018-10-09T07:31:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=80110"},"modified":"2018-10-09T11:29:12","modified_gmt":"2018-10-09T08:29:12","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analiz-08-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analiz-08-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 08.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; T\u00fcrkiye’nin ilk n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 santrali projesi olan ve yap\u0131m\u0131na devam edilen Mersin’deki Akkuyu N\u00fckleer G\u00fc\u00e7 Santrali (NGS), ‘A\u00e7\u0131k Kap\u0131’ etkinli\u011fi kapsam\u0131nda ilk kez vatanda\u015flar\u0131n ziyaretine a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131, NASA’dan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131l\u0131mla r\u00fczgar enerjisi yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yapan, 400 MW RES portf\u00f6y\u00fcne sahip olan \u00d6zg\u00fcl Holding’in Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00d6mer Faruk \u00d6zg\u00fcl, 10 ilde 450 milyon dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131ma haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131, Elektrik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 100’\u00fcn\u00fc yenilenebilir kaynaklardan kar\u015f\u0131lamay\u0131 taahh\u00fct eden \u015firketlerden olu\u015fan RE100’e G\u00fcrmen Group da d\u00e2hil oldu, Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurumu’nun (EPDK) deste\u011fiyle d\u00fczenlenen T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Zirvesi, 1500’\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ve b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin kamu kurum ve kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimleriyle bulu\u015fturacak ve yeni i\u015fbirli\u011fi imkanlar\u0131na kap\u0131 aralayacak.\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 323,32 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 358,35<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 248,99 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 03:00 \u2013 04:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 328,21<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 3,69 <\/strong>TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 37,<\/strong> linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 25 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 8<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 9, <\/strong>jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i itibariyle<\/strong> t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f ve r\u00fczgar santrallerindeki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 335,91 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 37.498<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 73<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 94 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 86<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 310,59 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 377,32 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 08:00 \u2013 09:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 202,88 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 324,68<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 08.10.2018 <\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.622,63<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 27.863<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; T\u00fcrkiye’nin ilk n\u00fckleer g\u00fc\u00e7 santrali projesi olan ve yap\u0131m\u0131na devam edilen Mersin’deki Akkuyu N\u00fckleer G\u00fc\u00e7 Santrali […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":80118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":579,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80110"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80110"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80130,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80110\/revisions\/80130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}