{"id":7998,"date":"2013-03-09T15:43:23","date_gmt":"2013-03-09T12:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=7998"},"modified":"2013-03-09T15:43:23","modified_gmt":"2013-03-09T12:43:23","slug":"petrolun-tahtina-hangi-enerji-kaynaklari-oturacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petrolun-tahtina-hangi-enerji-kaynaklari-oturacak\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petrol\u00fcn Taht\u0131na Hangi Enerji Kaynaklar\u0131 Oturacak?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Shell\u2019in alternatif senaryosuna g\u00f6re, petrol\u00fcn 70 y\u0131ll\u0131k taht\u0131na ileride ba\u015fka enerji kaynaklar\u0131 oturacak. ULUSLARARASI enerji devi Shell, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar piyasalar\u0131n nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik \u201csenaryo\u201d raporunu payla\u015ft\u0131. Raporda, analistlerin farkl\u0131 varsay\u0131mlara g\u00f6re haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki temel senaryonun bulu\u015ftu\u011fu ortak nokta \u201cpetrol\u00fcn bug\u00fcnk\u00fc taht\u0131na\u201d ileride ba\u015fka enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n oturaca\u011f\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alternatif senaryoya g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada enerji kaynaklar\u0131 s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda bug\u00fcn 13. s\u0131rada yer alan g\u00fcne\u015f, 2070\u2019e do\u011fru ilk s\u0131raya oturuyor. Shell\u2019e g\u00f6re, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyadaki enerjinin y\u00fczde 37\u2019si g\u00fcne\u015ften sa\u011flan\u0131rken, petrol\u00fcn pay\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 10\u2019da kalacak. Rapordaki ilk senaryoda ise do\u011falgaz, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 haline gelerek, petrol\u00fcn 70 y\u0131ll\u0131k saltanat\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ANA KAYNAK G\u00dcNE\u015e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"Shell\u2019in \u201cNew Lens Scenarios\u201dda, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ana enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulamas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz oldu. \u201c\u0130ki farkl\u0131 d\u00fcnya ve bunlar\u0131n olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d sunuldu\u011fu raporda, bu z\u0131t iki d\u00fcnya \u201cda\u011flar\u201d ve \u201cokyanuslar\u201d olarak ayr\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha klasik varsay\u0131mlar \u201cda\u011flar\u201d senaryosunda yer al\u0131rken, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmemi\u015f sonu\u00e7lara \u201cokyanuslar\u201dda rastlan\u0131yor. \u0130\u015fte iki senaryodan dikkat \u00e7ekici ba\u015fl\u0131klar:<\/p>\n

DA\u011eLAR (Klasik senaryo)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00b7 2020\u2019lerde, ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019in ortak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik artan bir kabul ortaya \u00e7\u0131karken, G20 gibi bir G2 (ABD-\u00c7in) k\u00fcresel sistemi kontrol edecek. Bu d\u00fczen, iki m\u00fcttefik aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiden ziyade, bir mant\u0131k evlili\u011fine benzeyecek.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2030\u2019lara kadar uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen daha renkli hale gelecek. Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye, G\u00fcney Afrika ve Brezilya gibi b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin, kendi b\u00f6lgelerindeki g\u00fcndemi belirlemeye y\u00f6nelik n\u00fcfuzlar\u0131 artacak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Kaya gaz\u0131 ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr yata\u011f\u0131 metan\u0131 geni\u015f \u00e7apta yay\u0131larak, k\u00fcresel enerji sisteminde bir \u201cdo\u011falgaz omurgas\u0131\u201d olu\u015fmas\u0131na vesile olacak. * Kaya gaz\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131yla, do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde bulu\u015facak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2030\u2019lu y\u0131llarda do\u011falgaz d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ana enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak, petrol\u00fcn 70 y\u0131ll\u0131k saltanat\u0131na son verecek. Petrolden \u00f6nce bu tahtta oturan k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn saltanat\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 y\u0131l s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (1910-1960).<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2050\u2019de d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc \u015fehirlerde ya\u015fayacak. \u015eehir n\u00fcfusundaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f \u00c7in, Hindistan, Nijerya ve ABD\u2019de ya\u015fanacak. Binlerce k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck kasaba h\u0131zla \u015fehre d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Hidrolik k\u0131r\u0131lma yani \u201cfracking\u201d y\u00f6ntemi, bug\u00fcne kadar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n t\u00fcketti\u011finden daha fazla, devasa miktarlarda petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karma potansiyeline sahip.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Y\u00fckselen ekonomilerde, do\u011falgazla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan CNG\u2019li ara\u00e7lar\u0131n filolardaki oran\u0131 giderek artacak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 ABD, 2030\u2019a kadar enerjide kendi kendine yeterli hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2080 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar, binek arabalarda art\u0131k akaryak\u0131t kullanmayacak.<\/p>\n

OKYANUSLAR (Alternatif senaryo)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00b7 Okyanuslar, y\u00fcksek petrol ve do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir d\u00fcnya. Bu ekonomik realite, yeni kaynaklar\u0131n ve teknolojik f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n anahtar\u0131 olarak, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisin k\u00fcresel \u00f6neme sahip olmas\u0131n\u0131n kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7acak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Enerji talebi bat\u0131dan do\u011fuya kaymaya devam edecek ve OECD\u2019nin enerji talebindeki pay\u0131 2030\u2019da y\u00fczde 33 seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Nispeten daha fakir \u00fclkelerde bile, y\u00fckselen ki\u015fisel gelirler, konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde fotovoltaik g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisine do\u011frudan ge\u00e7i\u015fi sa\u011flayacak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 Artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve talebi, yenilenebilir enerjide g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00f6nayak olacak. G\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi, bug\u00fcn enerji kaynaklar\u0131 s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda 13. s\u0131rada yer al\u0131rken, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ana enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 haline gelecek. G\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi 2040 y\u0131l\u0131nda petrol, do\u011falgaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada yer al\u0131rken, 2070\u2019e kadar liderli\u011fi kapacak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2100\u2019de enerji talebinin y\u00fczde 38\u2019i g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinden kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131rken, yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 10\u2019unu petrol kar\u015f\u0131layacak. Di\u011fer enerji t\u00fcrlerinin paylar\u0131 ise \u015f\u00f6yle olacak: Biyoyak\u0131tlar % 9.5, r\u00fczgar % 8.4, do\u011falgaz % 7.5, n\u00fckleer % 6.3, k\u00f6m\u00fcr %3.9.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2060\u2019a kadar OECD i\u00e7inde de, d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da, elektri\u011fin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131 fotovoltaik g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinden sa\u011flanacak.<\/p>\n

\u00b7 2065 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar Hindistan, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji t\u00fcketicisi olacak.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Eko Ayr\u0131nt\u0131<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Shell\u2019in alternatif senaryosuna g\u00f6re, petrol\u00fcn 70 y\u0131ll\u0131k taht\u0131na ileride ba\u015fka enerji kaynaklar\u0131 oturacak. ULUSLARARASI enerji devi Shell, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar piyasalar\u0131n nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53,49,44],"tags":[646,3261,3257,92,3260,19,67,1475,3262,13,168,1675,3259,71,2041,3258,59,69,1787],"views":1006,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7998"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7998"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7998\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8001,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7998\/revisions\/8001"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}