{"id":79961,"date":"2018-10-06T23:29:13","date_gmt":"2018-10-06T20:29:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79961"},"modified":"2018-10-06T23:29:13","modified_gmt":"2018-10-06T20:29:13","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-05-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-05-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 05.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; YEKA-2 GES ihalesi, \u00f6nceki YEKA ihalesinde oldu\u011fu gibi fabrika kurma \u015fart\u0131, uzun d\u00f6nemli ArGe zorunluluklar\u0131 ve depolama tesisi gibi \u015fartlar\u0131 i\u00e7ermiyor, Rusya Ulusal Ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u00dcniversitesi, Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Merkezi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dr. Vitaliy Yermakov taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan, \u201cRusya, Suudi Arabistan ve ABD: \u00dc\u00e7 B\u00fcy\u00fck Petrol \u00dcreticisi Aras\u0131nda Tedarik Dinamikleri\u201d konulu rapor Sabanc\u0131 \u00dcniversitesi \u0130stanbul Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji ve \u0130klim Merkezi\u2019nde (IICEC) d\u00fczenlenen toplant\u0131da payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131, H\u00fck\u00fcmetleraras\u0131 \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Paneli\u2019nin (IPCC) 1,5 Santigrat Derece \u00d6zel Raporu\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 tarihten d\u00f6rt g\u00fcn \u00f6nce, sivil toplum kurulu\u015flar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck 120 yeni k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc termik santral planlayan \u015firketlerin listesi yay\u0131nlad\u0131, Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi santrallerinin kurulmas\u0131 amac\u0131yla \u015eanl\u0131urfa, Viran\u015fehir\u2019de 500 MW, Hatay, Erzin\u2019de 200 MW ve Ni\u011fde, Bor\u2019da 300 MW g\u00fcc\u00fcnde Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynak Alan\u0131 (YEKA) sahas\u0131 i\u00e7in ihale d\u00fczenlenece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 302,92<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 351,99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 15:00 \u2013 16:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131\u00a0174,00<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak \"\"03:00 \u2013 04:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 319,92<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 5,51\u00a0TL<\/strong> d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fg\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 33<\/strong>, linyit % 18<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 24\u00a0<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 9<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar% 12,\u00a0<\/strong>jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f,\u00a0hafta sonu itibariyle t\u00fcketim talebindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc do\u011frultusunda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak r\u00fczgar santrallerinin ve hidroelektrik santrallerinin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi\u00a0<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 308,99<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 31.734<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0% 82<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131** iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck % 96\u00a0<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilenve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 280,19\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 330,27\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 175,43\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 288,35<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 05.10.2018\u00a0<\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)\u00a01.617,86<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken,ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 13.886<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**T\u00fcketime Dair Ba\u015far\u0131 Oran\u0131; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; YEKA-2 GES ihalesi, \u00f6nceki YEKA ihalesinde oldu\u011fu gibi fabrika kurma \u015fart\u0131, uzun d\u00f6nemli ArGe zorunluluklar\u0131 ve […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79966,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":847,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79961"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79961"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79961\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79967,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79961\/revisions\/79967"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79961"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79961"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79961"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}