{"id":79846,"date":"2018-10-04T11:00:48","date_gmt":"2018-10-04T08:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79846"},"modified":"2018-10-04T17:05:57","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T14:05:57","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analiz-03-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analiz-03-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131’n\u0131n \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 03.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, arz darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerinin ABD’de ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131 ile birlikte yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde yatay seyretti, T\u00fcrkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A\u015e (T\u00dcPRA\u015e)\u2019\u0131n, haz\u0131rlanan rapora g\u00f6re kurumsal y\u00f6netim ilkelerine uyum notu 94,81 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, Avrupa Parlamentosu otomobiller ve a\u011f\u0131r vas\u0131talar i\u00e7in karbon sal\u0131n\u0131m hedeflerini 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda % 20, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise % 40 olarak belirledi, Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjisi Toplulu\u011fu T\u00fcrkiye B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc G\u00dcNDER, SOLARENA etkinli\u011finde payla\u015f\u0131lan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjisi Yol Haritas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 14 GW, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 38 GW seviyesini ge\u00e7ece\u011fi belirtildi, \u00c7in Ekoloji ve \u00c7evre Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, a\u011f\u0131r sanayi kapsam\u0131ndaki firmalar\u0131 uyararak \u00e7evre kurallar\u0131na uymalar\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131.\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 330,22 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 357,16<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 09:00 \u2013 10:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 289,99 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 04:00 \u2013 05:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 326,25<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 13,12 <\/strong>TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 40<\/strong>, linyit % 18<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 25 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 8<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 6<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, t\u00fcketim talebindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f do\u011frultusunda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak termik santrallerin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 336,29 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 33.276<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 78<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 95 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 358,71 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 379,97 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 277,85 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 04:00 \u2013 05:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 375,94<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 \u2013 03.10.2018 <\/strong>tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.613,02<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 8.585<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, arz darl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerinin ABD’de ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131 ile birlikte yakla\u015f\u0131k […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":79851,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":618,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79846"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79846"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79846\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79874,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79846\/revisions\/79874"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79851"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}