{"id":79721,"date":"2018-10-02T12:20:50","date_gmt":"2018-10-02T09:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79721"},"modified":"2018-10-02T12:23:21","modified_gmt":"2018-10-02T09:23:21","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-01-10-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-01-10-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 01.10.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; BOTA\u015e, 1 Ekim’den itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 konutlar i\u00e7in % 9, sanayide ise % 18,5 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131r\u0131rken, EPDK da elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 konut i\u00e7in % 9, sanayi i\u00e7in % 18,5 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131rd\u0131. Asya Altyap\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m Bankas\u0131 (AAYB), T\u00fcrkiye Sanayi Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131’na (TSKB) 200 milyon dolar kredi sa\u011flad\u0131, ilgili kredi \u00f6zellikle yenilenebilir enerji ve enerji verimlili\u011fi projeleri i\u00e7in uzun vadeli finansman\u0131 destekleyece\u011fi belirtildi. Seza \u00c7imento Fabrikas\u0131’n\u0131n y\u00f6netim kurulu ba\u015fkan\u0131 Prof. Dr. Yasemin A\u00e7\u0131k taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re, Elaz\u0131\u011f b\u00f6lgesinde 35 milyon dolarl\u0131k yeni yat\u0131r\u0131m yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7evre dostu yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerini kentte hayata ge\u00e7irmeye devam eden Malatya B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Belediyesi, \u015fehir mezarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yan\u0131nda yer alan 60 bin metrekarelik alan \u00fczerine kurdu\u011fu GES Santrali’nde enerji \u00fcretimine ba\u015flad\u0131. Yeni Ekonomik Program’da yer alan Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n yeniden yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in kanun teklifi Meclis’e sunuldu. Yeniden faaliyete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131rlanan Emlak Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Zeki Say\u0131n, makine, g\u00fcne\u015f paneli ve r\u00fczgar t\u00fcrbini kanad\u0131 gibi ithal ikameli projelere teminats\u0131z kredi verebileceklerini belirtti.\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 325,68 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 362,36<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 174,00 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 03:00 \u2013 04:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 355,51<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 6,23<\/strong> TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 40<\/strong>, linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 24 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 11<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 4<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 do\u011frultusunda hidro santrallerindeki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 348,23 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 33.248<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 90 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 95<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 320,88 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 379,69 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 08:00 \u2013 09:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 213,19 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 03:00 \u2013 04:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 343,60<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.10.2018 <\/strong>tarihi itibari ile Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.625,19<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ilgili tarih i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 1.040<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; BOTA\u015e, 1 Ekim’den itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 konutlar i\u00e7in % 9, sanayide ise % […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":1024,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79721"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79721"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79729,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79721\/revisions\/79729"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}