{"id":79579,"date":"2018-09-30T22:34:09","date_gmt":"2018-09-30T19:34:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79579"},"modified":"2018-09-30T23:11:43","modified_gmt":"2018-09-30T20:11:43","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-29-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-29-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 29.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Piyasas\u0131 Denetleme Kurumu(EPDK) Kalite Fakt\u00f6r\u00fc Uygulamas\u0131\u2019yla ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar y\u00fcr\u00fcten \u015firketleri 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda da \u00f6d\u00fcllendirilece\u011fini bildiren bir duyuru yay\u0131nlad\u0131, Enerjisa Enerji A.\u015e.\u2019de CEO\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 Strateji ve \u0130\u015f Geli\u015ftirme B\u00f6l\u00fcm Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na Fezal Okur, \u0130nsan Kaynaklar\u0131 ve Bili\u015fim Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ise G\u00fcl Erol atand\u0131, Erkin \u015eahin\u00f6z\u2019\u00fcn, Aksa Enerji \u00dcretim A\u015e\u2019nin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyeli\u011fine 28 Eyl\u00fcl tarihinden itibaren atamas\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi, Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yeni Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynak Alanlar\u0131\u2019\u0131 (YEKA); Ni\u011fde\u2019nin Bor, Urfa\u2019n\u0131n Viran\u015fehir ile Hatay\u2019\u0131n Erzin il\u00e7eleri g\u00fcne\u015fte, Edirne, K\u0131rklareli-Demirk\u00f6y, Sivas-Kangal, Sivas\u2013G\u00fcr\u00fcn, Eski\u015fehir-Tepeba\u015f\u0131 b\u00f6lgeleri ise r\u00fczgar do\u011frultusunda belirlendi, Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 Ba\u011flant\u0131 ve Sistem Kullan\u0131m Y\u00f6netmeli\u011finde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmas\u0131na dair y\u00f6netmelik yay\u0131nland\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 302,12\u00a0<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 355,01<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 20:00 \u2013 21:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131\u00a0174,00<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 346,61<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.\"\"<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda -22,30<\/strong> TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 29<\/strong>, linyit % 21<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 25\u00a0<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 10<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar% 12<\/strong>, jeotermal % 3<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki hafif art\u0131\u015f,\u00a0haftasonu t\u00fcketim talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesi do\u011frultusunda r\u00fczgar enerjisi \u00fcretiminki art\u0131\u015f beklentisi\u00a0<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 319,21<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 30.148<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0% 64<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 92\u00a0<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 91<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 306,63<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 364,69<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 21:00 \u2013 22:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 203,83\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 347,09<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 29.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)\u00a01.577,03<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 58.176<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Piyasas\u0131 Denetleme Kurumu(EPDK) Kalite Fakt\u00f6r\u00fc Uygulamas\u0131\u2019yla ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar y\u00fcr\u00fcten \u015firketleri 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda da \u00f6d\u00fcllendirilece\u011fini bildiren […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79584,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":882,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79579"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79579"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79600,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79579\/revisions\/79600"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}