{"id":79500,"date":"2018-09-29T23:02:04","date_gmt":"2018-09-29T20:02:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79500"},"modified":"2018-09-29T23:03:08","modified_gmt":"2018-09-29T20:03:08","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-28-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-28-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 28.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurumu (EPDK) taraf\u0131ndan, Do\u011falgaz Piyasas\u0131 Tarifeler Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi’nde “parametrelerde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler meydana geldi\u011fi” gerek\u00e7esiyle de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131labilece\u011fi y\u00f6nde revizyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi, \u0130ngiltere \u0130\u015f, Enerji ve Sanayi Stratejisi Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2018\u2019in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine dair enerji \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketim verileri dahilinde yenilenebilirin pay\u0131 % 30\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) \u0130cra Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Fatih Birol Hamburg\u2019da d\u00fczenlenen K\u00fcresel R\u00fczgar Zirvesi\u2019nde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada karasal r\u00fczgar enerjisinin \u015fu an yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in en ucuz elektrik \u00fcretim kayna\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izerken, k\u0131y\u0131 \u00f6tesinde de maliyetlerin h\u0131zla geriledi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti, TEMA Vakf\u0131 Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Deniz Ata\u00e7, T\u00fcrkiye’nin Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131 onaylamas\u0131, kararl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde sera gaz\u0131 emisyonu azalt\u0131m\u0131 hedeflerini ortaya koymas\u0131, iklim dostu politikalar\u0131 savunarak \u00e7evresindeki \u00fclkelere liderlik etmisinin \u00f6nemini vurgulad\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 \"\"ortalamas\u0131 324,42\u00a0<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 355,18<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 09:00 \u2013 10:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131\u00a0249,99<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 02:00 \u2013 03:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 342,74<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 5,36<\/strong> TL d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 38<\/strong>, linyit % 17<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 25\u00a0<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 10<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar% 6<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki hafif art\u0131\u015f,\u00a0haftasonu t\u00fcketim talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesi do\u011frultusunda termik santrallerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fcretim beklentisi\u00a0<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 345,92<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 33.725<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck% 67<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck % 94<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>,t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 91<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilenve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacakg\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketimde\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 319,21<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 363,12<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 13:00 \u2013 14:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 251,46<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 05:00 \u2013 06:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 336,49<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 26.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)1.580,82<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken,ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 46.035<\/strong> x1000 sm3olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurumu (EPDK) taraf\u0131ndan, Do\u011falgaz Piyasas\u0131 Tarifeler Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi’nde “parametrelerde \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikler meydana geldi\u011fi” gerek\u00e7esiyle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,39661,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":659,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79500"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79500"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79500\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79506,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79500\/revisions\/79506"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}