{"id":79369,"date":"2018-09-27T12:22:36","date_gmt":"2018-09-27T09:22:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79369"},"modified":"2018-09-27T12:22:36","modified_gmt":"2018-09-27T09:22:36","slug":"elektrik-piyasasinin-istatistiksel-analizi-26-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasinin-istatistiksel-analizi-26-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 26.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Antalya Organize Sanayi B\u00f6lgesi’nde faaliyet g\u00f6steren CW Enerji’nin Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Volkan Y\u0131lmaz, \u00fcrettikleri g\u00fcne\u015f panelleri, yapt\u0131klar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ve ihra\u00e7 ettikleri \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kapanmas\u0131na fayda sa\u011flad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 payla\u015ft\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye’nin ilk n\u00fckleer enerji santrali olacak Akkuyu NGS i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar devam ederken, b\u00f6lge sanayicileriyle de bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme trafi\u011fi ya\u015fanacak Akkuyu N\u00fckleer A.\u015e. ile projenin \u00f6nemli kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131ndan Konzern T\u0130TAN-2 A.\u015e. b\u00f6lgedeki sanayicilerle biraraya gelece\u011fi \u00f6\u011frenildi, 10 kW\u2019a kadar olan \u00e7at\u0131 tipi g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi kurulumlar\u0131nda proje onay i\u015flem \u00fccreti al\u0131nmayaca\u011f\u0131 duyuruldu, BOTA\u015e taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re, 23 Eyl\u00fcl ile 7 Ekim tarihleri aras\u0131nda, \u0130ran – T\u00fcrkiye do\u011falgaz boru hatt\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak bak\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flanmayca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 304,13 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 356,09<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 17:00 \u2013 18:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 174,00 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak \"\"06:00 \u2013 07:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 340,79<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 1,86<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 30<\/strong>, linyit % 15<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 22 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 13<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 16<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki hafif art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcketim talebine kar\u015f\u0131n ger\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcndeki gibi termik ve yenilenebilir enerji santrallerin \u00fcretimlerinde de\u011fi\u015fim olmamas\u0131 <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 267,61 <\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 34.901<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 73<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise g\u00fcnl\u00fck % 96 <\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 318,39 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 377,40 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 210,57 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 352,83<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 25.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.582,07<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 44.337<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Antalya Organize Sanayi B\u00f6lgesi’nde faaliyet g\u00f6steren CW Enerji’nin Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Volkan Y\u0131lmaz, \u00fcrettikleri g\u00fcne\u015f panelleri, yapt\u0131klar\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79374,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":1029,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79369"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79369"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79369\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79375,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79369\/revisions\/79375"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}