{"id":79293,"date":"2018-09-26T13:34:10","date_gmt":"2018-09-26T10:34:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79293"},"modified":"2018-09-26T13:37:49","modified_gmt":"2018-09-26T10:37:49","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-25-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-25-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 25.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Avrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) K\u0131demli Bankac\u0131s\u0131 Andi Aranitasi, Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’na yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik edecek yeni bir mekanizman\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi konusunda destek verdiklerini belirterek, “Yeni bir sistemle devam etmek istenildi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2020’den sonra yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecek yeni mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l sonuna kadar a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 umuyoruz” a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda bulundu, ODA\u015e Elektrik \u00dcretim Sanayi Ticaret A\u015e’nin \u00c7anakkale’deki \u00c7an-2 Termik Santral\u0131’nda yang\u0131na dair yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada, “Kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc 340 megavat olan santralda, 18 Eyl\u00fcl’de meydana gelen yang\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan koordineli yo\u011fun \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve rehabilitasyon \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde santral\u0131n bug\u00fcn yeniden \u00fcretime ge\u00e7mesi planlan\u0131yor” olarak belirtildi, Pamsolar Y\u00f6netim Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yal\u00e7\u0131n Kaplan, T\u00fcrkiye’nin yenilenebilir kaynaklar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan potansiyelinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve bu potansiyeli enerjiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcp sanayiciye vermeyi g\u00f6rev edindiklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 302,28<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 \"\"<\/strong>353,87<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 17:00 \u2013 18:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131\u00a0158,56<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 12:00 \u2013 13:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 334,08<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda -12,07<\/strong> TLd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 29<\/strong>, linyit % 15<\/strong>,ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 23\u00a0<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 11<\/strong>,r\u00fczgar% 18<\/strong>,jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f,\u00a0t\u00fcketim talebine kar\u015f\u0131n yenilenebilir enerji santrelleri \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u00a0<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131<\/strong> (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 310,98<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 34.873<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0% 69<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck % 96\u00a0<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 80<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilen ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 267,61<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 317,89<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 10:00 \u2013 11:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 158,27\u00a0<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 295,19<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 24.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)\u00a01.582,60<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken,ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 38.507<\/strong> x1000 sm3olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0TBD<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Avrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD) K\u0131demli Bankac\u0131s\u0131 Andi Aranitasi, Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’na yenilenebilir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":822,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79293"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79293"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79293\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79303,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79293\/revisions\/79303"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79299"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}