{"id":79089,"date":"2018-09-23T23:22:09","date_gmt":"2018-09-23T20:22:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79089"},"modified":"2018-09-23T23:22:09","modified_gmt":"2018-09-23T20:22:09","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-22-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-22-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 22.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjisi Toplulu\u011fu, T\u00fcrkiye B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc G\u00dcNDER, YEKA-2 GES ve Enerji Depolama Sistemi ihalelerinin \u015fartnameleri hakk\u0131nda sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn konu ile ilgili g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini alabilmek ad\u0131na 26 Eyl\u00fcl g\u00fcn\u00fc, Ankara\u2019da \u00e7al\u0131\u015ftay d\u00fczenleyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131, Shell Eco-marathon T\u00fcrkiye etkinlikleri21 ile 23 Eyl\u00fcl tarihleri aras\u0131nda \u0130stanbul\u2019da ba\u015flad\u0131, \u00c7evre \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc Greenpeace taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00c7in’in karbondioksit emisyonu hakk\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131klamada, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketiminin% 3 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 315,42<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi.Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 358,80<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 19:00 \u2013 20:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131225<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 07:00 \u2013 08:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 353,91<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 22,32<\/strong> TLd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fg\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 36<\/strong>, linyit % 17<\/strong>,ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 26<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 5<\/strong>,r\u00fczgar% 2<\/strong>,jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f,t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki talebi termik santraller i\u00e7erisinden do\u011fal gazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131rken k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fcretim plan\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u00a0<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 325,87<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 30.148<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck% 65<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck % 97<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 78<\/strong>,t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilenve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacakg\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketimde\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 301,72<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 372,08<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 00:00 \u2013 01:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 226,02<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 335,82<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 21.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)1.589,61<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken,ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 33.217<\/strong> x1000 sm3olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Uluslararas\u0131 G\u00fcne\u015f Enerjisi Toplulu\u011fu, T\u00fcrkiye B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc G\u00dcNDER, YEKA-2 GES ve Enerji Depolama Sistemi ihalelerinin \u015fartnameleri hakk\u0131nda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79094,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39479,39352,39351],"views":1113,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79089"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79089"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79089\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79095,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79089\/revisions\/79095"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}