{"id":79049,"date":"2018-09-23T00:33:40","date_gmt":"2018-09-22T21:33:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=79049"},"modified":"2018-09-23T00:45:21","modified_gmt":"2018-09-22T21:45:21","slug":"elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-21-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasi-istatistiksel-analizi-21-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131 \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 21.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131\u2019na (YEP) g\u00f6re , Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynak Alanlar\u0131 (YEKA) modeli ile bu enerji teknolojilerinin yenile\u015ftirilmesi desteklenece\u011fi, Ulusal Enerji Verimlili\u011fi Eylem Plan\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde enerji girdi maliyetleri azalt\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, petrol ve do\u011falgaz kayna\u011f\u0131 aramalar\u0131, ba\u015fta denizlerde olmak \u00fczere h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. CK Enerji Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i Elektrik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Halit Bakal taraf\u0131ndan May\u0131s ay\u0131nda T\u00fcketici Hizmetleri Y\u00f6netmeli\u011fi’ndeki de\u011fi\u015fiklik hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada “Elektrik s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi ba\u015fvuru ve elektri\u011fin ba\u011flanma s\u00fcreleri k\u0131sald\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca t\u00fcketici her konuda an\u0131nda bilgilendiriliyor. Art\u0131k unutulan \u00f6denmemi\u015f fatura y\u00fcz\u00fcnden elektrik kesilmiyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u015flem yapmadan \u00f6nce SMS’le t\u00fcketiciye faturas\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131yor” dedi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 337,73<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 360,90<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 20:00 \u2013 21:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131\u00a0249,99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00\u00a0<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 358,17<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 4,88<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 41<\/strong>, linyit % 15<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 21\u00a0<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 15<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar%\u00a03<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f,\u00a0t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki talebi termik santrallerin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fcretim plan\u0131 <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 356,39<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 33.725<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck% 72<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck % 98\u00a0<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 78<\/strong>,t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilenve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacak g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketim de\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 325,87<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 368,33<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 08:00 \u2013 09:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 250,00<\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 345,37<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 20.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)1.592,45<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 31.409<\/strong> x1000 sm3olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Yeni Ekonomi Program\u0131\u2019na (YEP) g\u00f6re , Yenilenebilir Enerji Kaynak Alanlar\u0131 (YEKA) modeli ile bu enerji teknolojilerinin […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,39426,26353,19,67,1009,39353,39352,39351],"views":1050,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79049"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79049"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79049\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79060,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79049\/revisions\/79060"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/79054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}