{"id":78954,"date":"2018-09-20T13:03:03","date_gmt":"2018-09-20T10:03:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=78954"},"modified":"2018-09-20T13:03:03","modified_gmt":"2018-09-20T10:03:03","slug":"elektrik-piyasasinin-istatistiksel-analizi-19-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasinin-istatistiksel-analizi-19-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130statistiksel Analizi \u2013 ( 19.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Alstom \u015firketi taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen hidrojen yak\u0131t h\u00fccreli trenin, Almanya’da hizmete girdi, Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurulu (EPDK) taraf\u0131nda \u201cDo\u011falgaz Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u015eirketleri Taraf\u0131ndan Organize Sanayi B\u00f6lgelerinde Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m Faaliyeti Ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesine \u0130li\u015fkin Usul ve Esaslar\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00f6nerge Resmi Gazetede yay\u0131nlanarak y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe al\u0131nd\u0131, DEK (D\u00fcnya Enerji Konseyi) T\u00fcrkiye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alparslan Bayraktar taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamad\u0131, i\u00e7inde bulunulan yeni d\u00f6nemin zorluklarla beraber f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 da beraberinde getirece\u011fini belirtti,\u00c7anakkale’nin \u00c7an il\u00e7esinde yeni devreye al\u0131nan \u00c7an-2 Termik Santrali’nde k\u00f6m\u00fcrlerin depoland\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmde d\u00fcn \u00f6\u011fle saatlerinde yang\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 328,70<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi.Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 363,21<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00\u2013 17:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131225,00<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \"\"\u2013 07:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 349,50<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 0,32<\/strong> TLart\u0131\u015fg\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 37<\/strong>, linyit % 14<\/strong>,ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 19<\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 17<\/strong>,r\u00fczgar% 10<\/strong>,jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki de\u011fi\u015fmezlik,termik santrallerdeki \u201cspark spread\u201din vetahmin edilen \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 299,68<\/strong>TL\/MWh ve ortalama t\u00fcketim 34.901<\/strong> MWh olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck% 68<\/strong>, t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 iseg\u00fcnl\u00fck % 98<\/strong>olarak hesaplan\u0131rken, bug\u00fcne kadar yap\u0131lan piyasa takas fiyat\u0131na dair analizlere g\u00f6re ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 % 78<\/strong>,t\u00fcketime dair ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 92<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ile haftal\u0131k bazda tahmin edilenve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftik\u00e7e yer alacakg\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama t\u00fcketimde\u011ferleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerde yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 341,71<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 378,19 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 10:00 \u2013 11:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 225,00 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 364,91<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 18.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF)1.603,20<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3olarak belirlenirken,ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fene\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 28.271<\/strong> x1000 sm3olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarakhesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Alstom \u015firketi taraf\u0131ndan geli\u015ftirilen hidrojen yak\u0131t h\u00fccreli trenin, Almanya’da hizmete girdi, Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurulu (EPDK) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":78959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,26353,67,1009,422,39352,39351],"views":1526,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78954"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78954"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78954\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78960,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78954\/revisions\/78960"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}