{"id":78853,"date":"2018-09-18T11:21:32","date_gmt":"2018-09-18T08:21:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=78853"},"modified":"2018-09-18T11:22:57","modified_gmt":"2018-09-18T08:22:57","slug":"elektrik-piyasasinin-istatistiksel-analizi-17-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-piyasasinin-istatistiksel-analizi-17-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Piyasas\u0131’n\u0131n \u0130statistiksel Analizi ( 17.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Ticareti Derne\u011fi (ETD) Ba\u015fkanvekili Mustafa Karahan, elektrik piyasas\u0131nda artan maliyetler nedeni ile ikili anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 iptal etmeye ba\u015flayan veya bunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen \u015firketlerin oldu\u011funu, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n piyasada zincirleme bir etkiye sebep olabilece\u011fini payla\u015ft\u0131, \u0130pragaz, LNG (S\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Do\u011fal Gaz) ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan IVECO Stralis NP 460 model \u00e7ekicisini nakliye filosuna dahil edildi\u011fini duyurdu, Alman firma RWE, k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretiminin durdurulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in hedeflenen 2035 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n erken oldu\u011funu payla\u015ft\u0131, Petrol Ofisi taraf\u0131ndan\u00a0Kocaeli Derince’de bulunan akaryak\u0131t depolama kapasitesinin 180.000 m3 art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 319,19 <\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi. Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 358,78<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 17:00 \u2013 18:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 224,99<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 338,81<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

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Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 4,15<\/strong> TL art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda termik enerji dahilinde do\u011fal gaz % 34<\/strong>, linyit % 14<\/strong>, ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr % 19 <\/strong>oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenirken, yenilenebilir enerji dahilinde ise hidro % 16<\/strong>, r\u00fczgar % 13<\/strong>, jeotermal % 2<\/strong> oran\u0131nda \u00fcretimin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f, termik santrallerdeki \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beraberinde hafta i\u00e7i t\u00fcketim talebindeki art\u0131\u015f <\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir. Yar\u0131n i\u00e7in planlanan \u00fcretim bazl\u0131 Kesinle\u015fmi\u015f G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcretim Plan\u0131 (KG\u00dcP) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 331,16 <\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 377,65 <\/strong>TL\/MWh olarak 08:00 \u2013 09:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 234,70<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00 <\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 351,71<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir. Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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Organize Toptan Do\u011fal Gaz Sat\u0131\u015f Piyasas\u0131 (OTSP) dahilinde 01.09.2018 \u2013 15.09.2018<\/strong> tarihleri aras\u0131 ortalama Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) 1.616,95<\/strong> TL\/1000 sm3 olarak belirlenirken, ayn\u0131 tarihler aras\u0131nda toplam ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen e\u015fle\u015fmelerin miktar\u0131 ise 24.523<\/strong> x1000 sm3 olarak belirlendi. \u0130lgili tarihler aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck Gaz Referans Fiyat\u0131 (GRF) ile E\u015fle\u015fme Miktar\u0131 verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

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*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm kullan\u0131lan veriler dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen t\u00fcketim verileri kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

**TBD; t\u00fcketim baz\u0131nda yap\u0131lan haftal\u0131k tahminlerde Pazar g\u00fcnleri yay\u0131nlanan raporda hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc itibari ile ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak hesaplanarak, raporda g\u00fcncellenecektir.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak \u2013 Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Enerji Ticareti Derne\u011fi (ETD) Ba\u015fkanvekili Mustafa Karahan, elektrik piyasas\u0131nda artan maliyetler nedeni ile ikili anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 iptal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":78858,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[34979,19638,39373,34980,26353,67,1009],"views":1268,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78853"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78853"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78860,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78853\/revisions\/78860"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78858"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}