{"id":78757,"date":"2018-09-16T16:01:48","date_gmt":"2018-09-16T13:01:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=78757"},"modified":"2018-09-16T16:02:45","modified_gmt":"2018-09-16T13:02:45","slug":"fosil-yakitlar-ile-nereye-kadar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/fosil-yakitlar-ile-nereye-kadar\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Fosil Yak\u0131tlar \u0130le Nereye Kadar?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Carbon Tracker 2020 Vizyonu: Fosil Yak\u0131tlar\u0131n D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (Why You Should See Peak Fossil Fuels Coming) Raporu \u00a0Yans\u0131malar\u0131…<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u0130R\u0130\u015e <\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00f6m\u00fcr ve petrol nevi hidrokarbon i\u00e7eri\u011fine sahip \u00a0fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n sonsuz kaynaklarm\u0131\u015fcas\u0131na\u00a0 ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun zihniyetiyle tedav\u00fclde hala varl\u0131k g\u00f6stermesine izin vermenin bir uzant\u0131s\u0131 olarak kirli enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ayakta tutulmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterilen azami \u00e7aba y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u00a0gelece\u011fimizin ipotek alt\u0131na\u00a0al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bedellerini \u015fimdiden \u00a0k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, asit ya\u011fmurlar\u0131,s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131, sel, kurakl\u0131k, su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 gibi k\u00fcresel afetlerle\u00a0 misliyle\u00a0 \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz bir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n i\u00e7indeyiz. Roller \"\"coaster gibi ba\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc uzunlukta bir c\u00fcmle; s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan bu meselenin\u00a0 beyinde ne kadar n\u00f6ron yak\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funa da bir at\u0131f olsun desek de\u00a0 mevcut vaziyete \u201c oh olsun\u201d diyemeyiz.<\/p>\n

2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 95 oran\u0131nda azaltmak.,2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 49 azaltmak.,2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 100 s\u0131f\u0131r karbon sal\u0131n\u0131ml\u0131 elektrik \u00fcretmek. Bunlar paris iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n hedefleri . peki bu hedeflere ula\u015fmada\u00a0 gerekli olan fosil yak\u0131t azalt\u0131m\u0131nda d\u00fcnya nereye gidiyor ?\u00a0 hat\u0131rlarsak Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n imzaya a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda belli tarihlerde 6 k\u0131tada on binlerce insan fosil yak\u0131tlardan kurtulmak i\u00e7in 20 ayr\u0131 lokasyonda do\u011frudan eylemler d\u00fczenlemi\u015flerdi. \u00a0 Bu sene Mart ay\u0131nda (2018)\u00a0\u00a0 Amerikan Havac\u0131l\u0131k ve Uzay Ajans\u0131 (NASA)\u00a0\u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmadaysa,\u00a0Kuzey Kutup Dairesi’ndeki (Arktik ku\u015fak)\u00a0donmu\u015f permafrost topraklar\u0131n mevcut h\u0131zda\u00a0\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye devam etmesi halinde, 2300 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde b\u00f6lgedeki\u00a0karbon sal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, 2016 senesindeki \u00a0d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda\u00a0fosil yak\u0131tlardan kaynaklanan karbon sal\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 10 kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’ta iklim kanunu 2008’de yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar sera gaz\u0131 gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 80 azaltmay\u0131 hedeflemekte Meksika’d: 2012’de yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2050’ye kadar sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 50 oran\u0131nda azaltmay\u0131 hedefliyor.Danimarka’da: 2014’te yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2050’ye kadar y\u00fczde 100 yenilenebilir enerjiye ge\u00e7meyi, 0 fosil at\u0131k kullanmay\u0131 hedefliyor.Finlandiya’da : 2015’te yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 80 azaltmay\u0131 planlamakta.Fransa’da: 2015’te yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2050’ye kadar sera gaz\u0131 emisyonunu y\u00fczde 75 azaltmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.Norve\u00e7: 2017’de yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2050’ye kadar sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 80 ile 95 azaltmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.\u0130sve\u00e7: 2017’de yasala\u015ft\u0131. 2045’e kadar sera gaz\u0131 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 85 azaltmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor.Hollanda parlamentosunun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu olu\u015fturan GroenLinks, PvdA, SP, D66, ChristenUnie, VVD ve CDA \u0130klim Yasas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in harekete ge\u00e7ti.yani 2018’de hollanda2da yasala\u015fma i\u00e7in gerekli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

OPEC yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131\u00a0 raporu Global petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 490 bin varil\/g\u00fcn art\u0131\u015fla 98 milyon 880 bin varil\/g\u00fcne y\u00fckseldi\u011fini kaydetmekte ve OPEC, kendi \u00fcretiminin de 278 bin varil\/g\u00fcn art\u0131\u015fla 32 milyon 560 bin varil\/g\u00fcn oldu\u011funu duyurdu. A\u011fustosta OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkelerde petrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 210 bin varil art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 66 milyon 320 bin varile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.\u00a0 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise global petrol talebinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 100 milyon varil s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin eden OPEC, talebin 2018’e g\u00f6re 1,41 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn y\u00fckselece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kendi petrol\u00fcne talebin 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2017 y\u0131l\u0131na g\u00f6re 0,50 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 32,90 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn oldu\u011funu tahmin eden OPEC, kendi petrol\u00fcne talebin 2019’da 2018’e g\u00f6re 900 bin varil g\u00fcn azalarak 32,1 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemekte.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n((IEA) )2012 D\u00fcnya Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Raporu \u00a0Fosil yak\u0131t rezervlerinin \u00fc\u00e7te ikisinin\u00a0 yer alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 gereklili\u011fine vurgu yap\u0131yordu. Ayn\u0131 IEA \u00a013 Eyl\u00fcl tarihinde(2018) yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayl\u0131k raporunda global petrol talebinin 2018\u2019de 1,4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ve 2019’da 1,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki \u00f6nceki tahminlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Global petrol talebinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmakta oldu\u011funu ve Brent petrol\u00fcnde Nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana 70-80 dolar\/varil olan fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n test edilebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu sene (2018) Temmuz ay\u0131nda,\u00a0 \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihi kararla fosil yak\u0131tlardan geri \u00e7ekilme yasas\u0131n\u0131 parlementodan tam destekle \u00a0kabul ederek\u00a0 d\u00fcnyada fosil yak\u0131t yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen \u00e7eken ilk \u00fclke oldu\u011fu g\u00fcnlerde \u00a0Uluslararas\u0131 Gaz Birli\u011fi (IGU)\u2019nun K\u00fcresel Gaz Raporu, 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar do\u011fal gaz fosil yak\u0131tlar i\u00e7inde her ko\u015fulda t\u00fcketimi artacak tek fosil yak\u0131t kayna\u011f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ngrmekteydi. Do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketiminin 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00fcresel do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131n\u0131n \u015fehirlerde artan t\u00fcketimden kaynaklanmas\u0131\u00a0 da beklentiler aras\u0131nda. Bu arada Fosil Yak\u0131tlardan Yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 Geri \u00c7ekme Yasas\u0131, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z milletvekili Thomas Pringle, Trocaire, sivil toplum kurulu\u015flar\u0131, aktivistler, \u00f6\u011frenci gruplar\u0131 ve K\u00fcresel Yasal Eylem A\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n (GLAN) iki y\u0131ldan uzun s\u00fcredir y\u00fcr\u00fcttt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kampanyan\u0131n sonucu olarak yasalla\u015ft\u0131. Yasa \u0130rlanda Stratejik Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu (ISIF \u2013 Varl\u0131k Fonu)’nun k\u00fcresel fosil yak\u0131t \u015firketlerindeki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00e7ekmesini zorunlu k\u0131lmakta ve Haziran 2017 itibariyla\u00a0 Fon’un d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda 150 \u015firkette toplam 318 Milyon Euro’luk yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bulunuyor. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde tamamen elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n

Fosil yak\u0131t talebine dair b\u00f6ylesine bir \u00a0girizgah yapt\u0131ktan sonra \u015fimdi\u00a0 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir ba\u015fka u\u00e7 rapor sonucuna bakal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Carbon Tracker inisiyatifi, sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 iklim ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle ayn\u0131 \u00e7izgiye getirerek, iklim a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fcvenli bir k\u00fcresel enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmeyi ama\u00e7layan, k\u00e2r amac\u0131 g\u00fctmeyen NGO olarak tabir edilen bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fudur.\u00a0Karbon balonu,\u00a0yak\u0131lamaz karbon\u00a0ve\u00a0at\u0131l varl\u0131klar\u00a0konular\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar, finans sisteminin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu bir gelecek i\u00e7in gerekli olan enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcyle ayn\u0131 \u00e7izgiye nas\u0131l getirilebilece\u011fi konusunda yeni bir tart\u0131\u015fma a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu makale 2020\u2019lerde enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u00a0 yenilenebilir enerjiden kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Carbon Tracker 2020 Vizyonu: Fosil Yak\u0131tlar\u0131n D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (Why You Should See Peak Fossil Fuels Coming)\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0 adl\u0131 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131n\u0131n iikinci haftas\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan raporu\u00a0 ve yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 konu almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Carbon Tracker: 2020\u2019lerde enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u00a0 yenilenebilir enerjiden kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Yj3MSgqxJTg<\/a><\/p>\n

www.carbontracker.org\/reports\/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming<\/a><\/p>\n

Mineral\u00a0yak\u0131tlar\u00a0olarak da bilinen , hidrokarbon ve y\u00fcksek oranlarda karbon\u00a0 ihtiva eden\u00a0 k\u00f6m\u00fcr, petrol ve do\u011fal gaz gibi do\u011fal enerji kaynaklar\u0131dan olan\u00a0 Fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n pabucu ne zaman ve nas\u0131l dama at\u0131lacak sorusunun ivedi cevab\u0131 k\u00fcresel anlamda hepimizi ilgilendirmekte<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada temiz teknolojilerdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler fosil yak\u0131t talebinin ibresini\u00a0 2020\u2019lerden itibaren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcne \u00e7evirecek ve tecr\u00fcbesiz \u00a0yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in trilyonlarca dolarl\u0131k risk anlam\u0131na gelecek. K\u00f6m\u00fcr, do\u011fal gaz ve petroldeki talep d\u00fc\u015fmekte zira \u00a0yenilenebilir enerji ve depolama maliyetleri h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomiler temiz enerjiiyi tercih ediyor \u00a0ve devlet politikalar\u0131 emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadele ve hava kirlili\u011fini azaltma gibi ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillenmekte.<\/p>\n

Enerji ge\u00e7i\u015finin sermaye piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisi ve y\u00fcksek maliyetli, karbon yo\u011fun fosil yak\u0131tlar \u00fczerindeki potansiyel yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fczerinde derinlemesine analiz y\u00fcr\u00fcten ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir finansal d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu bir di\u011fer anlamda insiyatifi olan .Carbon Tracker\u2019\u0131n taraf\u0131ma Londra\u2019dan g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re , Carbon Tracker stratejistlerinden ve \u20182020 Vizyonu: Fosil Yak\u0131tlar\u0131n D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u2019<\/em>\u00a0raporunun yazar\u0131 Kingsmill Bond: \u201c2020\u2019ler, yenilenebilir enerjinin kaleleri birbiri ard\u0131na fethedece\u011fi ve fosil yak\u0131t talebinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ece\u011fi y\u0131llar olacak. Bu durum bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde trilyonlarca dolar de\u011ferinde varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n at\u0131l kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak ve ekonomileri petrole dayal\u0131 \u00fclkelerin politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitmedi\u011fi durumda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sorunlara yol a\u00e7acak\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemekte<\/p>\n

Mezkur \u00a0rapor, bir yandan enerji talebi d\u00fc\u015ferken g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme pay\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131na el koyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koyuyor. K\u00fcresel enerji talebinde y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 1-1,5\u2019lik, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinde y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 15-20\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenirken, fosil yak\u0131t talebi de 2020 ile 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla 2023 itibar\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte [i]<\/a> \u00d6te yandan enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli etkileri olacak: bu minvalde fosil yak\u0131t sekt\u00f6r\u00fc tahminen 25 trilyon dolarl\u0131k altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda at\u0131l varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sindirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken sistemsel risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalacak.ilaveten enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, sermaye varl\u0131klar\u0131, ula\u015f\u0131m ve otomotiv sekt\u00f6rlerini geni\u015f \u00e7apta etkileyerek, \u00f6zkaynak endeksleri ve bor\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte birini te\u015fkil eden \u015firketleri do\u011frudan etkileyecek ve fosil yak\u0131t ihracat\u0131 yapan \u00fclkeler zarara u\u011frayacak. Bu arada \u00a0Rusya, fosil yak\u0131t rantlar\u0131n\u0131n GSY\u0130H\u2019n\u0131n en az y\u00fczde 10\u2019unu te\u015fkil etti\u011fi 12 \u00fclkeden biri oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekilmekte.<\/p>\n

Kingsmill Bond\u00a0a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda: \u201cFosil yak\u0131t kullan\u0131m\u0131 200 y\u0131ld\u0131r art\u0131yor ancak art\u0131k yap\u0131sal bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine ge\u00e7mek \u00fczere. Neredeyse t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rler bu ge\u00e7i\u015fi yapabilmek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele verecek. Bu \u015firketler fiyatlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, artan rekabet, yeniden yap\u0131lanma, at\u0131l varl\u0131k ve piyasalarda reyting indirimleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 bekleyebilir\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015fmakta<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) 13 Eyl\u00fcl tarihinde\u00a0 yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ayl\u0131k raporunda da IEA global petrol talebinin gelecek 3 ayda 100 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesine ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, piyasada s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirmekte ve\u00a0 geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalardaki krizlerin ve ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekmekte.<\/p>\n

Konvansiyonel sekt\u00f6rler genellikle rakip sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn pay\u0131 toplam sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 2-3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc te\u015fkil ederken, talebin tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekte. . \u00d6rne\u011fin, Avrupa\u2019da termik santrallerden \u00fcretilen elektrik talebi, yenilenebilir enerjinin hen\u00fcz toplam arz\u0131n y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc te\u015fkil etti\u011fi 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda tavan yapt\u0131. Finansal krizin ard\u0131ndan talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve yenilenebilir enerjinin piyasa pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte, sekt\u00f6rde 150 milyar dolarl\u0131k de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

yine\u00a0 Carbon Tracker: 2020\u2019ye d\u00f6nersek Kingsmill Bond: \u201cBenzer bir duruma ge\u00e7mi\u015fte bir\u00e7ok enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde rastlad\u0131k. Yak\u0131n zamanda elektrik, k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve arabalarda ve ge\u00e7mi\u015fte at ve gaz lambalar\u0131nda. Konvansiyonel sekt\u00f6rler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan talep erken tavan yap\u0131yor ve yerle\u015fik sekt\u00f6rlere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapanlar erkenden para kaybediyor\u201d \u015feklinde konu\u015fmakta .<\/p>\n

Fosil yak\u0131t end\u00fcstrisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 bu riski g\u00f6rmemekte. BP, OPEC ve Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (International Energy Agency, IEA)<\/em>\u00a0fosil yak\u0131t talebinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in en az bir ku\u015fak ge\u00e7mesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekte. Ancak DNV GL\u00a0(Det Norske Veritas\u00a0Germanischer Lloyd)<\/em>\u00a0gibi baz\u0131 uzman kurulu\u015flar\u0131n tahminleri fosil yak\u0131t talebinin 2020\u2019lerden sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

Rapor, fosil yak\u0131t talebi i\u00e7in geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmez e\u015fi\u011fin g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r teknolojilerinin toplam enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel elektrik arz\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 14\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc te\u015fkil etti\u011finde meydana gelece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Bunlar bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen penetrasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha alt\u0131nda.Rapor enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 itici fakt\u00f6r tan\u0131ml\u0131yor:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> \u00a0Son be\u015f y\u0131lda, y\u0131ll\u0131k enerji talebindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1,4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 Yeni Politikalar Senaryosu\u2019nda uzun d\u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminini y\u00fczde 1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu tahmin, mevcut veya kamuoyuyla payla\u015f\u0131lan politikalar \u00fczerinden hesapland\u0131. Her ne kadar g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131, teknolojinin olgunla\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2007\u2019de y\u00fczde 29\u2019dan 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 22\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar enerjisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyor. Carbon Tracker\u2019\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ise enerji talebi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,3 ve g\u00fcne\u015f ile r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 17.<\/p>\n

Fotovoltaik g\u00fcne\u015f (PV), r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi ve depolama maliyetleri h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor\u00a0ve te\u015fvik olmadan fosil yak\u0131tlarla rekabet edebiliyor. Maliyetler her iki kat kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve bunun devam\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Uluslararas\u0131 Yenilenebilir Enerji Ajans\u0131 IRENA\u2019ya g\u00f6re, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesinde fosil yak\u0131tlardan daha ucuz olacak.<\/p>\n

Enerji talebinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olan geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar, fosil yak\u0131tlar yerine yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyor. Bu piyasalar daha az say\u0131da kurulu fosil yak\u0131t altyap\u0131s\u0131na sahip, enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve hava kirlili\u011fi art\u0131yor ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n sundu\u011fu f\u0131rsatlardan faydalanmaya hevesliler.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in ve Hindistan \u015fimdiden g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisini fosil yak\u0131tlara tercih ediyor. \u00c7in 2012\u2019de g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcnde ve 2016\u2019da elektrikli ara\u00e7larda Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019ni ge\u00e7ti. IEA \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 25 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n y\u00fczde 27\u2019sinin Hindistan ve y\u00fczde 19\u2019unun \u00c7in\u2019den kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet politikalar\u0131 bu e\u011filimleri destekliyor.\u00a0Kingsmill Bond\u2019a g\u00f6re: Karbon emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlama ihtiyac\u0131, temiz hava soluma arzusu ve enerji ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusundaki azim, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte fosil yak\u0131t end\u00fcstrisi \u00fczerindeki d\u00fczenleyici bask\u0131lar\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmekte.<\/p>\n

There are thus four main phases in each part of the transition: innovation (up to around 2% penetration for new technology); peaking (at 5-10% penetration); rapid change (at 10- 50% penetration); and the endgame (after 50% penetration) ifadelerinden de anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere Rapor, fosil yak\u0131tlardan yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerine ge\u00e7i\u015fi te\u015fkil eden enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00f6rt evresini tan\u0131mlamakta : \u201cYenilik-innovation\u201d, \u201ctavan yapma-peaking \u201d, \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim-rapid change \u201d ve \u201cson a\u015fama-end game \u201d. Rapor her \u00fclkede, ba\u015fta elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc olmak \u00fczere, her bir enerji talebi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn bu a\u015famalardan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. K\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda \u0131s\u0131tma ihtiyac\u0131, u\u00e7ak yak\u0131t\u0131 ve yenilenebilir enerjinin aral\u0131kl\u0131 \u00fcretim yapan bir enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 gibi zor konular fosil yak\u0131t talebinin tavan yapaca\u011f\u0131 tarihi ertelemeyecek ve bu konular muhtemelen d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc evre olan \u201cson a\u015fama\u201dda talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mi\u015fken ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak.<\/p>\n

Carbon Tracker enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk etkilerinin, talep tavan yaparken yerle\u015fik sekt\u00f6rlerin etkilenmesiyle birlikte \u015fimdiden hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ikazda \u00a0bulunuyor ve bunun sadece Avrupa elektrik piyasas\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00a0da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor.<\/p>\n

Avrupa ve ABD\u2019nin baz\u0131 eyaletlerindeki k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc ve do\u011fal gazl\u0131 termik santraller ekonomik olmad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in kapat\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131; \u00c7in, son bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 100 GW kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcnde k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc termik santralin yap\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 durdurdu.D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcreticisi Peabody Energy, k\u00fcresel k\u00f6m\u00fcr talebinin tavan yapmas\u0131ndan iki y\u0131l sonra, 2016\u2019da iflas etti. Sekt\u00f6r, Hindistan ve di\u011fer geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalardan kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc talep i\u00e7in kapasite in\u015fa etti ancak talep ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda elektrikli araba say\u0131s\u0131 3 milyon olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen (d\u00fcnyadaki binek arac\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 800 milyon), elektrikli arabalar binek arac\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 22\u2019sini te\u015fkil etti ve 2020\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131nda binek arac\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tamam\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fkil etmesi bekleniyor. Bu durum, ba\u015fl\u0131ca otomobil \u00fcreticilerinin elektrik ara\u00e7 stratejilerine yeniden odaklanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131 ve 2018 itibar\u0131yla elektrikli arabalara 90 milyon ABD dolar\u0131 de\u011ferinde yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kingsmill Bond\u2019a g\u00f6re: \u201cYat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunup, ona g\u00f6re davran\u0131r dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u015firketlerin talebin tavan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmesinden \u00f6nce tepki vereceklerdir. Ayn\u0131s\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve Avrupa elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnde meydana geldi. Enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda ilerleme kaydetmesiyle birlikte, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki vermeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz. Enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc her bir sekt\u00f6r\u00fc etkilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131na benzer bir durum gelece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesi de kolayla\u015fmakta\u201d .<\/p>\n

SONU\u00c7<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak Fosil yak\u0131t sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn tahminen 25 trilyon dolarl\u0131k altyap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda at\u0131l varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sindirmeye \u00e7abalarken sistemsel risklerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalaca\u011f\u0131na ve fosil yak\u0131t ihracat\u0131 yapan \u00fclkelerin\u00a0 zarara u\u011frayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken Rapor, fosil yak\u0131tlardan yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerine ge\u00e7i\u015fi te\u015fkil eden enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00f6rt evresini \u201cYenilik\u201d, \u201ctavan yapma\u201d, \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fim\u201d ve \u201cson a\u015fama\u201d.olarak tan\u0131mlamakta ve Carbon Tracker, enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk etkilerinin, talep tavan yaparken yerle\u015fik sekt\u00f6rlerin etkilenmesiyle birlikte \u015fimdiden hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunuyor ve bunun sadece Avrupa elektrik piyasas\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtiyor: ilaveten enerji talebi d\u00fc\u015ferken g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinin yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme pay\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131na el koyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermekte . K\u00fcresel enerji talebinde y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 1-1,5\u2019lik, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinde y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 15-20\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ngr\u00fcl\u00fcrken , fosil yak\u0131t talebinin\u00a0 de 2020 ile 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimal\u00a0 2023 itibar\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete ge\u00e7mesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Haz\u0131rlayan:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>H.\u00c7i\u011fdem Yorganc\u0131o\u011flu\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0http:\/\/www.cigdemyorgancioglu.org\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

REF .<\/strong><\/p>\n

www.carbontracker.org\/reports\/2020-vision-why-you-should-see-the-fossil-fuel-peak-coming<\/a>
\nwww.carbontracker.org<\/a><\/p>\n

[1] \u00a0Son be\u015f y\u0131lda, y\u0131ll\u0131k enerji talebindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1,4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 Yeni Politikalar Senaryosu\u2019nda uzun d\u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tahminini y\u00fczde 1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu tahmin, mevcut veya kamuoyuyla payla\u015f\u0131lan politikalar \u00fczerinden hesapland\u0131. Her ne kadar g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131, teknolojinin olgunla\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2007\u2019de y\u00fczde 29\u2019dan 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 22\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar enerjisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ediyor. Carbon Tracker\u2019\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 reel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ise enerji talebi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,3 ve g\u00fcne\u015f ile r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerjisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 17.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Carbon Tracker 2020 Vizyonu: Fosil Yak\u0131tlar\u0131n D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (Why You Should See Peak Fossil Fuels Coming) Raporu \u00a0Yans\u0131malar\u0131… G\u0130R\u0130\u015e K\u00f6m\u00fcr ve petrol nevi hidrokarbon […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":78760,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,24649,44],"tags":[36266,39298,886,39303,2258,1564,67,1009,39305,39306,988,18,39301,6019,39300,1800,39297,39302,34464,4034,39304,39299,2293,24143,34935,2388,34936,24949,1022,26829],"views":3146,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78757"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78757"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78757\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78762,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78757\/revisions\/78762"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78760"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}