{"id":78752,"date":"2018-09-16T15:33:57","date_gmt":"2018-09-16T12:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=78752"},"modified":"2018-09-16T15:33:57","modified_gmt":"2018-09-16T12:33:57","slug":"elektrik-fiyatlarinin-istatistiksel-analizi-14-09-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/elektrik-fiyatlarinin-istatistiksel-analizi-14-09-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Elektrik Fiyatlar\u0131’n\u0131n \u0130statistiksel Analizi ( 14.09.2018 )"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, 2017\u2019de 25.000 TWh olan k\u00fcresel elektrik talebi, kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 dahilinde yap\u0131lacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 38.700 TWh seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilmektedir, DNV GL firmas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan do\u011falgaz ve elektri\u011fin, Kuzey Amerika b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ana enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olan petrol\u00fcn yerini alabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunulmaktad\u0131r, T\u00fcrk Paras\u0131n\u0131n K\u0131ymetini Koruma Hakk\u0131nda 32 Say\u0131l\u0131 Kararda De\u011fi\u015fiklik Yap\u0131lmas\u0131na Dair Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Karar\u0131na g\u00f6re, bundan b\u00f6yle d\u00f6vizle s\u00f6zle\u015fme yapmak veya s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerden kaynaklanan her t\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00f6deme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00f6vize ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak belirlenmesi yasakland\u0131, Gebze Teknik \u00dcniversitesi, IEEE \u00d6\u011frenci Toplulu\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda faaliyet g\u00f6steren Power and Energy Society taraf\u0131ndan, yenilenebilir enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn her anlamda ele al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 Greenergy\u201918 etkinli\u011fi d\u00fczenlendi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

G\u00fcn \u00f6ncesi elektrik piyasas\u0131nda yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan megavat saat (MWh) ba\u015f\u0131na piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 330,92<\/strong>TL olarak belirlendi.\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fiyatlardaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 354,01<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 16:00 \u2013 17:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131174,00<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 339,00<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131nda 4,69<\/strong> TLd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fg\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Bununla birlikte fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f,hafta sonundan kaynakl\u0131 t\u00fcketim talebindeki azal\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong>ile a\u00e7\u0131klanabilmektedir.<\/p>\n

Tahminleme Modeli* analizi sonucu ortalama piyasa takas fyat\u0131 354,13<\/strong>TL\/MWh \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Modelin ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 ise % 80<\/strong> olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r. Saatlik yar\u0131n i\u00e7in olu\u015fan ve tahmin edilen piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yar\u0131ndan sonraki g\u00fcn i\u00e7in olu\u015facak ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 319,33<\/strong>TL\/MWH olarak tahmin edilmektedir. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak g\u00fcn\u00fcn maksimum fiyat\u0131 375,76<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 09:00 \u2013 10:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, minimum fiyat\u0131 190,85<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak 06:00 \u2013 07:00<\/strong>saat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Puant saatlerde (17:00 – 22:00) tahmini ortalama piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 ise 333,09<\/strong> TL\/MWh olarak hesaplanabilmektedir.Saatlik olu\u015facak piyasa takas fiyat\u0131 tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

*Tahminleme Modeli; istatistiksel tahminleme metodu olan SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) kullan\u0131larak MATLAB yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme platformunda haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Model dahilinde girdi verileri olarak EP\u0130A\u015e \u015eeffafl\u0131k Platformunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yay\u0131nlanan piyasa takas fiyatlar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Model ile ilgili detayl\u0131 bilgi alabilmek i\u00e7in l\u00fctfen ileti\u015fime ge\u00e7iniz.<\/em><\/p>\n

T\u00fcmay Solak – Risk Y\u00f6netimi Uzman\u0131 \/ Enerjisa \u00dcretim Santralleri A.\u015e.<\/div>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan piyasaya dair g\u00fcncel haberler \u015f\u00f6yle; Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, 2017\u2019de 25.000 TWh olan k\u00fcresel elektrik talebi, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":78755,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53],"tags":[2630,4559,34979,343,19638,26353,67,1009,39296,19144],"views":1256,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78752"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78752"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78752\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":78756,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78752\/revisions\/78756"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/78755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}