{"id":7836,"date":"2013-03-06T15:30:57","date_gmt":"2013-03-06T12:30:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=7836"},"modified":"2013-03-06T15:40:38","modified_gmt":"2013-03-06T12:40:38","slug":"her-yerde-petrol-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/her-yerde-petrol-var\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Her Yerde Petrol Var…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Son y\u0131llarda ke\u015ffedilen yeni petrol kaynaklar\u0131, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin hakimiyetini tehdit eder duruma geldi. 2012\u2032de petrol arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na 80 milyar euro yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131. 300 yeni petrol kayna\u011f\u0131 bulundu. \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana petrol ithal eden ABD, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren kaya gaz\u0131 sayesinde petrol ihra\u00e7 etmeye ba\u015flayacak.<\/strong>
\nSon y\u0131llarda ke\u015ffedilen yeni petrol kaynaklar\u0131, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin hakimiyetini tehdit eder duruma geldi. ABD 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 geride b\u0131rakarak, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u00fcreticisi konumuna gelmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bunun nedeni tabi ki kaya gaz\u0131. Sadece ABD de\u011fil, G\u00fcney Amerika ve Afrika\u2019da ke\u015ffedilen yeni kaynaklar, \u201cbenzinde zirve noktas\u0131\u201d teorisinin de sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak nitelikte.
\n\"\"ABD\u2019li jeofizik\u00e7i Marion King Hubbert taraf\u0131ndan ilk kez 1956 y\u0131l\u0131nda kullan\u0131lan \u201cPeak Oil\u201d kavram\u0131, belli bir b\u00f6lgede, belli bir zamanda petrol \u00fcretim miktar\u0131n\u0131n zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u015fekilde azalmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunmu\u015f ve buna petrol \u00fcretiminin \u201cjeolojik s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131\u201d ad\u0131 verilmi\u015fti.
\nHubbert 1956 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmada ABD\u2019de petrol \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in iki senaryo \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Birinci senaryoya g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de toplam konvansiyonel petrol rezerv miktar\u0131 150 milyar\/ varildi ve \u00fcretim 1965\u2032de zirve yapacakt\u0131. Di\u011fer senaryo ise toplam konvansiyonel \u00fcretimi 200 milyar\/varil olarak hesaplam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve zirve y\u0131l\u0131 olarak 1970\u2032i<\/strong> \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.
\nDaha sonra zirve y\u0131l\u0131, 2000\u2032e<\/strong> y\u00fckseldi. Fakat ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz sene Harvard Kennedy School taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan bir rapor, bu konuya y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yeniden alevlendirdi.
\nLe Nouvel Observateur\u2019e a\u00e7\u0131klamada bulunan \u0130talyan petrol \u015firketi<\/strong> ENI\u2019nin eski Strateji Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Leonardo Maugeri, fosil enerjiler konusunda hi\u00e7 bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar neden yan\u0131ld\u0131?<\/h2>\n

Maugeri\u2019ye g\u00f6re, uzmanlar\u0131n yan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmalar\u0131n\u0131n nedeni, konvansiyonel petrol kaynaklar\u0131 potansiyelini yeterince \u00f6nemsememi\u015f olmalar\u0131.
\n1859 y\u0131l\u0131nda Pensilvanya\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131lan ilk petrol kuyusundan bu yana, t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya 2 bin ila 3 bin metre derinlikte bulunan petrol\u00fc kullan\u0131yor. Kolay ula\u015f\u0131lan bu petrol\u00fcn y\u00fczde 70\u2032i Ortado\u011fu\u2019da bulunuyor. Fakat son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r, konvansiyonel petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda farkl\u0131 kaynaklardan da petrol elde edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131<\/strong>. Konvansiyonel olmayan bu petrol\u00fcn y\u00fczde 70\u2032i ABD\u2019de bulunuyor.
\n2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda, petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, petrol \u015firketleri b\u00fcy\u00fck kar elde ettiler. Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l petrol arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na 80 milyar euro yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bu 10 sene \u00f6ncesine oranla d\u00f6rt kat daha y\u00fcksek bir yat\u0131r\u0131m oran\u0131 oldu. Bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n sonucunda ise 300 yeni kaynak bulundu.
\n\u00dc\u00e7 boyutlu sismik ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda elde edilen geli\u015fmeler sonucunda, Brezilya, Arjantin, Angola ve Kenya gibi bir \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin denizlerinde yeni rezervlere ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ula\u015f\u0131lan teknolojilerle denizlerde 2 bin hatta 3 bin metre derine inilebilece\u011fini kaydeden uzmanlar bu sayede, k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 12 olan offshore katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 16\u2032ya ula\u015fabilece\u011fini ifade ediyorlar.<\/p>\n

Petrol zirvesi endi\u015fesi yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilir mi?<\/h2>\n

Petrol zirvesi endi\u015fesinin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelip gelmeyece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler mevcut.
\nEn karamsar uzmanlara g\u00f6re, geleneksel olmayan petrol kaynaklar\u0131, geleneksel kaynaklarda ya\u015fanan azalmay\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rabilecek boyutta de\u011fil. Energy Funds Advisors Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015eirketi\u2019nden Olivier Rech, \u201cKuzey Denizi gibi eski alanlarda, \u00fcretim son 10 y\u0131lda yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya indi\u201d diyerek bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.
\nDi\u011fer uzmanlar ise bundan sonras\u0131nda petrol zirvesi de\u011fil, fakat \u201cpetrol platosu\u201d kavram\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelece\u011fini ifade ediyorlar. Total \u00dcretim Stratejisi Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Guillame Chalmin, \u201cMevcut kaynaklar ile petrol \u00fcretimi 24 y\u0131l boyunca ayn\u0131 h\u0131zla devam edecektir\u201d diyor.
\nBu arada teknolojide ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, s\u00fcreci belirleyecek en \u00f6nemli unsurlar aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.
\nKaya gaz\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karman\u0131n, geleneksel petrole oranla daha masrafl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve \u00e7evreye \u00e7ok daha fazla zarar verdi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatmakta fayda var.<\/p>\n

K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin hakimiyeti sona erer mi?<\/h2>\n

\u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana petrol ithal eden ABD, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131ndan itibaren kaya gaz\u0131 sayesinde petrol ihra\u00e7 etmeye ba\u015flayacak.
\nUluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131, ABD\u2019nin 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda enerji ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan edebilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.
\nDeloitte\u2019a g\u00f6re enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ABD ekonomisini canland\u0131rd\u0131 ve 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda 550 bin istihdam yaratmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.
\nBaz\u0131lar\u0131 yeni kaynaklar\u0131n abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, k\u00fcresel enerji haritas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyenler de var.
\nYorumlar ne olursa olsun, her konuda oldu\u011fu gibi enerjide de yeni liderlerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. ABD\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Kanada, Brezilya, Bat\u0131 Afrika ve Meksika K\u00f6rfezi y\u00fckselen b\u00f6lgelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor.
\n1980\u2032lerden bu yana ilk kez, OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerin petrol arz\u0131, OPEC \u00fcyelerinden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.
\nUzmanlar\u0131n dedi\u011fi gibi, \u201c\u00c7ok yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnen \u2018petrol\u00fcn sonu endi\u015fesi\u2019 art\u0131k kimseyi korkutmuyor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Son y\u0131llarda ke\u015ffedilen yeni petrol kaynaklar\u0131, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin hakimiyetini tehdit eder duruma geldi. 2012\u2032de petrol arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na 80 milyar euro yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131. 300 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7837,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[3196,67,3198,3200,168,3195,3201,3197,1377,59,81,79,3194,3199],"views":509,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7836"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7836"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7836\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7839,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7836\/revisions\/7839"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7837"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7836"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7836"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7836"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}