{"id":71550,"date":"2018-02-12T14:15:06","date_gmt":"2018-02-12T11:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=71550"},"modified":"2018-02-12T14:15:06","modified_gmt":"2018-02-12T11:15:06","slug":"jeopolitik-riskler-petrol-ve-gaza-yaradi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/jeopolitik-riskler-petrol-ve-gaza-yaradi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Jeopolitik Riskler Petrol ve Gaza Yarad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

KPMG\u2019nin 2018\u2019in ilk petrol ve gaz piyasa analizinde; petrol ve gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 2018\u2019de g\u00fcven tazeledi\u011fi belirtildi. Analizde, mevcut arz-talep dengesinin de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentiler nedeniyle petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 3 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015farak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekildi. KPMG T\u00fcrkiye Enerji ve Do\u011fal Kaynaklar Sekt\u00f6r Lideri \u00dcmit Bilirgen, \u201cPetrol ve gaz piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015fler yolunda; \u00f6zellikle gazda Rusya ve ABD ihra\u00e7 rekoru k\u0131rd\u0131\u201d dedi. <\/strong><\/p>\n

KPMG\u2019nin yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol ve gaz analizinde \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra artan jeopolitik risklerin \"\"piyasalarda mevcut arz talep dengesini olumlu y\u00f6nde etkiledi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi. KPMG T\u00fcrkiye Enerji ve Do\u011fal Kaynaklar Sekt\u00f6r Lideri \u00dcmit Bilirgen, \u201cPetrol ve gazda gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentiler de\u011fi\u015fti. Jeopolitik riskler petrol fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131. ABD ham petrol hedge i\u015flemlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, fiyatlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fansa bile sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini destekleyecek\u201d dedi. Bilirgen petrol piyasalar\u0131yla ilgili \u015fu bilgileri verdi; \u201cOPEC \u00fclkelerinin ve baz\u0131 OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi ve artan jeopolitik risk alg\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle son aylarda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 sonucu, ABD\u2019li kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcreticileri beklenen 2018 \u00fcretimlerinin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeye \u00e7evirerek k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 ve hacim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 hale getirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131lar.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00dcreticilerin kar\u0131 artt\u0131 <\/strong><\/p>\n

WTI ham petrolde \u015fu anda bir miktar gerileme varsa da t\u00fcm 2018 WTI vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin varil ba\u015f\u0131na 60 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktaran Bilirgen, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti; \u201c\u00dcreticiler, mevcut \u00fcretimlerini daha birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6ncesindeki fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlardan ve daha fazla k\u00e2rla satabiliyorlar. Sekt\u00f6rde hedge i\u015flemlerinin bu \u015fekilde artmas\u0131, fiyatlar o zamana kadar daha dengeli seviyelere ula\u015fsa veya talepteki b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flasa bile ABD \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda destekleyecek. Bu durum, ba\u015fta \u0130ran ile ilgili riskler olmak \u00fczere \u015fu anda fiyatlar\u0131 etkileyen baz\u0131 jeopolitik riskler \u00fcretim hacimlerini fiilen etkilemedi\u011fi takdirde daha fazla fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\u201d<\/p>\n

ABD ve Rusya gaz ihracat\u0131nda rekor k\u0131rd\u0131 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Gaz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n da 2018\u2019e moralli girdi\u011fini belirten Bilirgen, \u201cGazda ABD ve Rusya ihra\u00e7 rekoru k\u0131rd\u0131. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda Gazprom bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak Avrupa\u2019ya 193,9 milyar m3<\/sup> do\u011fal gaz ihra\u00e7 etti ve bir rekora imza att\u0131. Bu durum \u015firketin Avrupa\u2019ya enerji tedarikinde artan rol\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koyuyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019nin LNG ihracat\u0131 da 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda rekor k\u0131rarak g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,9 milyar fitk\u00fcp\u2019e (yakla\u015f\u0131k 54 milyon metrek\u00fcp) ula\u015ft\u0131 ve ABD\u2019yi net do\u011fal gaz ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumuna getirdi. T\u00fcm hakim unsurlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yenilenen talep g\u00fcveni sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelmesini sa\u011flayabilir. ABD kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi gibi h\u0131zl\u0131 ve k\u0131sa d\u00f6ng\u00fcl\u00fc arzla birlikte, piyasadaki fiyatlara etki eden riskler eskisine g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha k\u0131sa bir zamanda ekstra arz hacmine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Analist tahminleri: PETROL <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Birimler USD\/bbl cinsindendir<\/td>\n2017<\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/strong><\/td>\n2020<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Min.<\/strong><\/td>\n51,5<\/td>\n53,0<\/td>\n55,0<\/td>\n58,0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ortalama<\/strong><\/td>\n53,5<\/td>\n57,5<\/td>\n59,2<\/td>\n63,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Medyan<\/strong><\/td>\n53,5<\/td>\n56,0<\/td>\n59,8<\/td>\n63,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maks. <\/strong><\/td>\n54,6<\/td>\n65,0<\/td>\n65,0<\/td>\n70,0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Birimler USD\/bbl cinsindendir<\/td>\n2017<\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/strong><\/td>\n2020<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kas\u0131m Ortalamas\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n53,0<\/td>\n56,1<\/td>\n58,4<\/td>\n62,4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aral\u0131k Ortalamas\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n53,5<\/td>\n57,5<\/td>\n59,2<\/td>\n63,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kas\u0131m Medyan\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n53,1<\/td>\n55,2<\/td>\n58,9<\/td>\n63,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aral\u0131k Medyan\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n53,5<\/td>\n56,0<\/td>\n59,8<\/td>\n63,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Analist tahminleri: DO\u011eAL GAZ<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Birimler USD\/MMbtu cinsindendir<\/td>\n2017<\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/strong><\/td>\n2020<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Min.<\/strong><\/td>\n2,9<\/td>\n2,7<\/td>\n2,9<\/td>\n2,9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ortalama <\/strong><\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Medyan <\/strong><\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maks. <\/strong><\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n3,3<\/td>\n3,3<\/td>\n3,5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Birimler USD\/MMbtu cinsindendir<\/td>\n2017<\/strong><\/td>\n2018<\/strong><\/td>\n2019<\/strong><\/td>\n2020<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kas\u0131m Ortalamas\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aral\u0131k Ortalamas\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kas\u0131m Medyan\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n3,2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aral\u0131k Medyan\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,0<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n3,1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Not: Brent & Henry Hub kurulu\u015fundan al\u0131nan yukar\u0131daki tahminler\/analist tahminleri, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc taraf kaynaklara ve bilgilere dayanmaktad\u0131r. Bunlar KPMG\u2019nin kendi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini yans\u0131tmamaktad\u0131r.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.KPMG\u2019nin 2018\u2019in ilk petrol ve gaz piyasa analizinde; petrol ve gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn 2018\u2019de g\u00fcven tazeledi\u011fi belirtildi. Analizde, mevcut arz-talep dengesinin de\u011fi\u015fmesi ve gelece\u011fe […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":71551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53,44],"tags":[1128,23219,67,1009,5441,26433,34935,887,34936],"views":728,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71550"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71550"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71550\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":71552,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71550\/revisions\/71552"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}