{"id":65211,"date":"2017-06-27T15:37:22","date_gmt":"2017-06-27T12:37:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=65211"},"modified":"2017-06-27T15:37:22","modified_gmt":"2017-06-27T12:37:22","slug":"kose-yazisi-global-sera-gazi-emisyonu-2026da-tavana-carpacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-global-sera-gazi-emisyonu-2026da-tavana-carpacak\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: Global Sera Gaz\u0131 Emisyonu 2026’da Tavana \u00c7arpacak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

CSIS\u00a0Center for Strategic and International Studies\u00a0<\/a>\u00a0Enerji ve Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Program\u0131, Bloomberg Yeni Enerji Finansman\u0131’n\u0131n (BNEF- Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s) T\u00fcrk\u00e7e ismi ile Yeni Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2017 olarak an\u0131lan\u00a015 Haziran tarihli\u00a0New Energy Outlook \u00a0raporunu 21 Haziran 2017\u2019de yay\u0131mlad\u0131. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rapor, BNEF’in 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n enerji kar\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k ekonomik tahminlerini i\u00e7eren,\u00a0 BNEF’in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt bir yan\u0131ndaki 11 ofisten 65’ten fazla piyasa ve teknik uzman\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir i\u015fbirli\u011finden olu\u015fturulan \u00a0Rapor, dokuz aydan fazla zaman alan bir eme\u011fin \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc .\"sera-gazi-emisyon-azaltimi-projelerine-kayit-sarti\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Bu y\u0131l, NEO 2017\u2019nin \u00a0di\u011fer konular\u0131ndan ziyade \u00a0rekabet\u00e7i a\u00e7\u0131k deniz r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadeli etkileri, \u00a0pil \u00f6mr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00a0elektrikli ta\u015f\u0131tlar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemi, t\u00fcketici fotovoltaik sistemleri ve \u00a0tepe talebin y\u00f6netilmesi gibi konulara daha \u00e7ok\u00a0odaklan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/div>\n

Bloomberg New Energy Finance[i]<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u2018\u0131n New Energy Outlook raporuna g\u00f6re Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fc kaynakl\u0131 global sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda en \u00fcst mertebeye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p tavan yapt\u0131ktan sonra \u00a0d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ecek.. Ancak yine de emisyonlar 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar COP21 \u00a0Paris iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken seviyelerin \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmekte. Bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n NEO2016 raporuna bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda fosil yak\u0131tlarda zirve noktas\u0131 2025 senesine gelmekteydi.\u00a0[ii]<\/a><\/p>\n

Rapora \u00a0(NEO) g\u00f6re, 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar global emisyon 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 seviyesinden y\u00fczde 4 oran\u0131nda azalacak ancak d\u00fcnya s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 2 derecenin alt\u0131nda tutabilmek i\u00e7in bu zaman i\u00e7inde yenilenebilir enerjiye 5.3 trilyon dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m daha yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekecek.<\/p>\n

Yine raporun bulgular\u0131na g\u00f6re 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar a\u00e7\u0131kdeniz r\u00fczgar santrali elektri\u011finin maliyeti y\u00fczde 71 oran\u0131nda azalacak.\u00a0G\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar elektrik piyasan\u0131n \u00a0gelece\u011fine hakim olacak \u00a02040’a kadar d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda yeni enerji \u00fcretimine harcanan 10,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n y\u00fczde 72’si yeni r\u00fczgar ve g\u00fcne\u015f PV tesislerine yat\u0131r\u0131lacak. 2017-2040 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda global elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in 10 trilyon dolar yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131lacak ve bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 75’ini g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olu\u015fturacak.<\/p>\n

Rapora g\u00f6re, elektrikli ara\u00e7lar ve bataryalar\u0131 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar Avrupa ve ABD’de elektrik \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 12-13’\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturacak.<\/p>\n

Piyasadaki enerji depolama i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan lityum iyon pillerin 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u0131lda 20 milyar dolar olmas\u0131 \u00a0bekleniyor ki \u00a0\u00a0bu da bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferinden on kat art\u0131\u015f demek. . Hane halk\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan kurulan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli piller ve i\u015fletmelerde, kurulu PV sistemleriyle birlikte 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda. depolama kapasitesinin y\u00fczde 57’sini olu\u015fturmas\u0131 beklenmekte..<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinin k\u00f6m\u00fcrle m\u00fccadelesi daha da geni\u015fleyerek artacak. Halihaz\u0131rda g\u00fcne\u015f zaten \u00a0Almanya, Avustralya, ABD, \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya’da k\u00f6m\u00fcr kadar ucuz. G\u00fcne\u015f enerjisinden al\u0131nan elektri\u011fin maliyeti 2040 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar y\u00fczde 66 daha d\u00fc\u015fecek. 2021’de \u00c7in, Hindistan, Meksika, \u0130ngiltere ve Brezilya’da k\u00f6m\u00fcrden daha ucuza mal olacak.<\/p>\n

Yine rapordaki projeksiyonlardan hareketle , k\u00f6m\u00fcrde tavandan \u00e7arp\u0131p d\u00fc\u015fen noktaya bakarsak \u00a0gev\u015fek talep(sluggish demand), ucuz yenilenebilir kaynaklar ve k\u00f6m\u00fcrden gaza kayan \u00a0yak\u0131tlar nedeniyle , k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa’da y\u00fczde 87, ABD’de y\u00fczde 45 oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015firken , k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretimi \u00c7in’de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek \u00a02026 y\u0131l\u0131nda zirveye ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ngr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. . Planlanan yeni k\u00f6m\u00fcr fabrikalar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 18’i Enerji santralleri olarak in\u015fa edilece\u011finden bu da \u00a0369GW’luk projenin iptal edilmesine neden olacak anlam\u0131na gelmekte.<\/p>\n

Kara r\u00fczgar\u0131 (Onshore wind) \u00a0maliyetleri h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00a0ve deniz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131(offshore) rzgar maliyetleri daha da\u00a0 h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fecek Daha ucuz, daha verimli t\u00fcrbinler ve geli\u015fmi\u015f sofistike OPEX rejimleri sayesinde k\u0131y\u0131 r\u00fczgarlar\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f maliyetler 2040’a kadar% 47 d\u00fc\u015fecek. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, deniz r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 maliyetleri, deneyim, rekabet ve \u00f6l\u00e7ek ekonomileri (economies of scale) sayesinde\u00a0 y\u00fczde 71 oran\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer bir kayma g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n

Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan raporu Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler \u00c7evre Program\u0131 (UNEP) \u00a0kapsam\u0131ndaki 21. Y\u00fczy\u0131l Yenilenebilir Enerji Politikalar\u0131 A\u011f\u0131 – Renewables\u00a0 Energy Policy Network\u00a0 for 21 st Century (REN21),\u00a0 Y\u00fczde 100 yenilenebilir enerjiye y\u00f6nelik\u00a0\u00a0 D\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt bir k\u00f6\u015fesinden 114\u00a0YE uzman\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 21. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fczde 100 yenilenebilir enerji kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na ula\u015fmada f\u0131rsatlar ve zorluklar zaafiyetleri i\u00e7eren fizibiliteyi yans\u0131tan \u00a0REN21 \u201cYenilenebilirlerin K\u00fcresel Gelecek Raporu:\u00a0[iii]<\/a>\u00a0ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rsak.[iv]<\/a>\u00a0 ;<\/p>\n

YE i\u00e7in do\u011fru politikalar ve mali giri\u015fimleri beninmedikleri takdirde COP21 hedeflerine ula\u015fmak \u00e7antada keklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u00fcresel ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam ederken \u00a0enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki emisyonlar\u0131n azalma ve YE kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n artma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi do\u011fru ama REN 21 deki 114 enerji uzman g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerince de desteklendi\u011fi gibi yenilenebilir enerji maliyetinin gelecek 10 y\u0131lda t\u00fcm fosil yak\u0131tlardan daha ucuz seviyeye gelerek d\u00fc\u015fmesi beklemekle birlikte, y\u00fczde 100 YE hedefe eri\u015fimde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131labilecek zorluklar\u0131n da \u00a0yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, konvansiyonel enerji sanayinin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u00fcphe nedeniyle \u00f6zellikle Afrika, ABD ve Japonya\u2019da 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda kadar y\u00fczde 100\u2019e ula\u015fma konusuna temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131lmakta idi. .<\/p>\n

Uzun vadeli politikalar\u0131n eksikli\u011fi, YE\u2019ye yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u00e7in istikrarl\u0131 ortam olmamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel ve yerel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte siyasi ve jeopolitik menfaatler baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde bu konuda ilerlemenin \u00f6n\u00fcnde engel te\u015fkil ediyor. \u00a0Ne yaz\u0131k ki Trump, Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131’ndan \u00e7\u0131kma karar\u0131 ile bu talihsiz durum ve garabetin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor\u00a0Umulur ki bu yanl\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan d\u00f6ns\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Haz\u0131rlayan:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span>H.\u00c7i\u011fdem Yorganc\u0131o\u011flu\u00a0\u00a0 http:\/\/www.cigdemyorgancioglu.org\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

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[i]<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0Bloomberg New Energy Finance\u00a0New Energy Outlook Report \/2017 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0https:\/\/about.bnef.com\/new-energy-outlook\/<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0No portion of the \u00a0document may be reproduced, scanned into an electronic system, distributed, publicly displayed or used as the basis of derivative works without the prior written consent of Bloomberg Finance L.P.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[ii]<\/a>\u00a02016 New Energy Outlook\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0http:\/\/www.climateplus.info\/2016\/06\/19\/bloombergs-new-energy-outlook-2016\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[iii]<\/a>\u00a0:\u00a0http:\/\/www.ren21.net\/future-of-renewables\/global-futures-report<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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[iv]<\/a>\u00a0REPORT CITATION REN21. 2017 Renewables Global Futures Report: Great debates towards 100% renewable energy (Paris: REN21 Secretariat). ISBN 978-3-9818107-4-5\u00a0http:\/\/www.ren21.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/03\/GFR-Full-Report-2017.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

Reference : Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s New Energy Outlook 2017\u00a0https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-jHLIhlOBUM<\/a>\u00a0Seb Henbest (NEO Lead Author and Head of Europe, Middle East, & Africa; BNEF) and Elena Giannakopoulou (Lead Energy Economist; BNEF) will present on the NEO 2017 findings, followed by Q&A and discussion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. CSIS\u00a0Center for Strategic and International Studies\u00a0\u00a0Enerji ve Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Program\u0131, Bloomberg Yeni Enerji Finansman\u0131’n\u0131n (BNEF- Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s) T\u00fcrk\u00e7e ismi ile […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,52],"tags":[34411,63,67,1009,2698,165,442],"views":1280,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65211"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65211"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65211\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65212,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65211\/revisions\/65212"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65211"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65211"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65211"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}