{"id":6258,"date":"2013-02-08T10:27:14","date_gmt":"2013-02-08T07:27:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=6258"},"modified":"2013-02-08T10:27:14","modified_gmt":"2013-02-08T07:27:14","slug":"brent-petrol-nereye-kosuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/brent-petrol-nereye-kosuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Brent Petrol Nereye Ko\u015fuyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Brent petrol\u00fcn hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 115 dolar seviyesinden 117 dolara olan sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda hareketlilik yaratt\u0131. Rusya ve Brezilya gibi emtia \u00fcreticisi olan \u00fclkeler, petroldeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken, \u0130MKB\u2019ye olan yans\u0131mas\u0131 ise sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u015feklinde oldu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brent petrol\u00fcn son 5 y\u0131ldaki ilk \u00e7eyrekteki seyrine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131na %10 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son 10 y\u0131la bak\u0131lacak olursa, negatif getirinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Di\u011fer hi\u00e7bir emtiada benzer bir durum g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor. Arz talep dengesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, OPEC, 30 milyon varil ile Aral\u0131k\u2019ta \u00fcretimi en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede tutuyor. Petrol \u00fcretimi Nisan 2012\u2019de 31 milyon varil ile tavan yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretiminin % 4.5 azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131nda Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimindeki % 5\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fck rol oynuyor.<\/p>\n

Nordea Bank petrol analisti Thina Saltvedt ve Jeffries Menkul De\u011ferler Petrol Broker\u2019\u0131 Christopher Bellew, BloombergHT Ara\u015ft\u0131rma B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc\u2019ne\"\" de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulundu. Genel hatlar\u0131yla bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda analistler, OPEC ve beraberinde Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol talebini y\u00fcr\u00fctmekte \u00e7ok ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirttiler. Hat\u0131rlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, di\u011fer oyuncular\u0131n \u00fcretimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle, k\u00fcresel petrol talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamak ad\u0131na OPEC ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l \u00fcretimi art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu y\u0131l ise \u00fcretimde bir miktar k\u0131smaya gitmeyi planl\u0131yorlar. T\u00fcm bunlar brent petrol\u00fcn 110\u2013117 dolar aras\u0131ndaki hareketini destekledi. Son bir haftada brent petrol\u00fcn hareket band\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u201cPeki ya bundan sonra? \u201c 3 ana ba\u015fl\u0131kta toplanabilir.<\/p>\n

Brent Petrol 120 $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131?<\/h2>\n

\u00c7in ve ABD cephesindeki petrol talebinin artmas\u0131 ve bunun sonucu k\u00fcresel ekonomilerdeki pozitif seyrin negatife d\u00f6nme riskinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 durumunda, emtia analistleri, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n piyasadaki fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 gidi\u015fini dengelemek ad\u0131na \u00fcretimi art\u0131rmaya gidece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. Bunun k\u00fcresel ekonomilerdeki pozitif seyri bir anda negatife \u00e7evirmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

\u015eubat sonu itibariyle ABD bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131na ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesinin g\u00fcndeme gelmesinin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemesi ihtimaller i\u00e7erisinde. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ay\u0131ndaki pozitif hava ve hisse senetlerindeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n, petrol piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yarak fiyatlamalar\u0131 destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, petrol talebinin mevsimsellikten \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc nisan aylar\u0131nda ba\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n tam da bahar aylar\u0131nda \u00fcretimi k\u0131smay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fuluyor.<\/p>\n

Nordea Bank\u2019tan Thina Saltvedt petrol fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik, \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ajandalarda yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesi ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran ile anla\u015fmak i\u00e7in masaya oturmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u0130lk toplant\u0131ya ili\u015fkin herhangi bir geli\u015fme beklemiyoruz. Ancak politik risklerin yeniden y\u00fckselmesi fiyatlamalara da yans\u0131yabilir. \u00d6zellikle \u0130srail ve Suriye aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik ve MENA b\u00f6lgesinde Cezayir\u2019de tansiyonun yeniden y\u00fckselmesi, politik riskler ad\u0131na \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kanlar,\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Brent Petrol\u2019\u00fcn 100$\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na inme ihtimali var m\u0131?<\/h2>\n

OPEC in 100 dolar \u00fczerindeki fiyatlamalar\u0131 de\u011ferlemesine almas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131n vadede petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu seviyelerin alt\u0131na inmesi analistlerin tahminleri d\u00e2hilinde de\u011fil. OPEC \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7elerini dengelemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeler onlara dezavantaj getiriyor. Petrol gelirinde ba\u015fa ba\u015f noktas\u0131 5 y\u0131l \u00f6nce 35 dolar iken ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l 85 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi. K\u00fcresel ekonomilerdeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme sinyalleri do\u011frultusunda, petrol talebinde art\u0131\u015f beklentisi devam ediyor. ABD, Kanada ve Irak\u2019taki petrol arz\u0131ndaki sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe ra\u011fmen, OPEC at\u0131l kapasitesinde halen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini koruyor. Arz taraf\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamaya devam ediyor. OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretimin artmas\u0131 at\u0131l kapasiteyi \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n

Peki ya WTI-Brent petrol makas\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleme\u2026<\/h2>\n

WTI ve Brent petrol aras\u0131ndaki makas son 1 haftad\u0131r geni\u015flemeye devam ediyor. Analistler Brent-WTI makas\u0131nda daralma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019deki deniz yolu petrol hatt\u0131n\u0131n full kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 durumuna ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Politik geli\u015fmelerin de spreadler \u00fczerindeki etkisininin yads\u0131namayaca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiliyor. \u00d6zellikle MENA b\u00f6lgesindeki politik risklerin y\u00fckselmesi, ihracat\u00e7\u0131 konumundaki Avrupa piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiriyor. ABD\u2019deki denizyolu petrol hatt\u0131n\u0131n spreadler \u00fczerindeki etkisinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, bu hattaki alt yap\u0131 eksikli\u011fi ABD i\u00e7i petrol transferinde t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131k noktas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6ze \u00e7arp\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, deniz yolu petrol hatt\u0131n\u0131n full kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ula\u015ft\u0131rma kapasitesindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da spreadler \u00fczerinde etkisini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. Jeffries Menkul De\u011ferler Petrol Broker\u2019\u0131 Christopher Bellew, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki seyre y\u00f6nelik, \u201cEuronun de\u011ferlenmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Rafineri ve stoklar\u0131n durumuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak WTI-Brent aras\u0131ndaki marj y\u00fcksek seviyelerini koruyabilir. Petrol\u2019de trend d\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyat hareketleri g\u00f6rebiliriz,\u201c yorumunda bulundu.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Brent petrol\u00fcn hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 115 dolar seviyesinden 117 dolara olan sert y\u00fckseli\u015fi, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda hareketlilik yaratt\u0131. Rusya ve Brezilya gibi emtia \u00fcreticisi olan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6259,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[2289,1736,67,2290,2228,1377,59],"views":635,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6258"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6258"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6258\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6261,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6258\/revisions\/6261"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6259"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}