{"id":5742,"date":"2013-01-29T15:54:16","date_gmt":"2013-01-29T12:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=5742"},"modified":"2013-01-29T15:56:55","modified_gmt":"2013-01-29T12:56:55","slug":"bp-enerji-gorunumu-2030-raporu-yayimlandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/bp-enerji-gorunumu-2030-raporu-yayimlandi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) BP Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030 Raporu Yay\u0131mland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

BP, enerjide yeni trendler hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli ipuclar\u0131 veren Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030 Raporu\u2019nu (Energy Outlook 2030), yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Rapora g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada enerji talebi, 2030\u2032a kadar y\u00fczde 36 oran\u0131nda artacak. Talep edilen enerji miktar\u0131n\u0131n, 12 milyar ton petrolden 16.6 milyar tona ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, neredeyse tamam\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin talebindeki y\u00fckseli\u015finden kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

OECD \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin enerji talebi 5.6 milyar ton petrolden, 5.8 milyar tona y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, OECD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yer alan \u00fclkelerde ise 6.4 milyar tondan, 10.9 milyar tona \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

\"\"N\u00fcfus ve gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131, artan enerji talebinin arkas\u0131ndaki temel fakt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2030\u2032a kadar, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 8.3 milyara ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekilen raporda, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1.3 milyar insan\u0131n enerji ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2030\u2032daki d\u00fcnya gelirinin ise 2011 seviyesindekinin iki kat\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

OECD\u2019de yer almayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta seviyedeki ekonomilerin, 2030\u2032daki n\u00fcfusun art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90 olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilen raporda, h\u0131zl\u0131 sanayile\u015fme ve kentle\u015fmeden dolay\u0131, bu \u00fclkelerin global gelir art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 70, enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015fta ise y\u00fczde 90 oran\u0131nda pay\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

Enerji t\u00fcketiminde en fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde olaca\u011f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin sanayide ilerlemesinin bu art\u0131\u015fta \u00f6nemli bir etkisi bulunaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn enerji talebi oran\u0131n\u0131n, 2030\u2032da, toplam talep edilen enerjinin y\u00fczde 57\u2032sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u201dABD, petrol \u00fcretiminde ilk s\u0131raya yerle\u015fecek\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019n\u0131n petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n, kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcretiminin etkisiyle 2030\u2032da d\u00fcnyada toplam b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 65 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. B\u00f6lgesel olarak art\u0131\u015fta en \u00f6n s\u0131rada gelmesi beklenen ABD\u2019nin, 2013\u2032te ham petrol arz\u0131nda, OPEC \u00fclkelerinin \u00fcretimdeki kesintilerinin de etkisiyle, Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya\u2019y\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin enerjide artan \u00fcretiminin, 2030\u2032da kendi kendine yeterli seviyeye ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019nin 2030\u2032da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131, net ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70 azalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Enerji \u00fcretiminin t\u00fcketimi kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 99\u2032a ula\u015facak.<\/p>\n

ABD, Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, d\u00fcnyada petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n 3\u2032te 1\u2032ini kar\u015f\u0131layaca\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n

\u201d\u00c7in, Avrupa\u2019ya denk d\u00fc\u015fecek\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in 2030\u2032da en fazla enerji ithal eden konumda olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde tahminlere yer verilen raporda, bu \u00fclkenin enerji ithalat oran\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm Avrupa \u00fclkelerine denk d\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n

2017\u2032ye kadar en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u0131na sahip \u00fclke olarak ABD ile yer de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00c7in\u2019in, enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011finin alt\u0131 \u00e7iziliyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da t\u00fcm fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131ndaki ihracat\u0131yla d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumunda olaca\u011f\u0131, net enerji ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da 2013\u2032y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci diliminde, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 petrol \u00fcretiminde ge\u00e7ece\u011fi, ancak Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n 2027\u2032de yeniden en fazla petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclke konumuna gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n, 2030\u2032da petrol ihracat\u0131, tahmini olarak 2010 seviyesinin y\u00fczde 17 yukar\u0131s\u0131nda olacak.<\/p>\n

Afrika da artan bir \u015fekilde \u00f6nemli fosil yak\u0131t\u0131 ihracat\u0131n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn pazar pay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Raporda, enerji \u00fcretiminde kullan\u0131lan kaynak t\u00fcrlerinin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin de tahminler yer al\u0131yor. Petrolde artan fiyatlar ve teknolojik yenilikler, global enerji dengelerini de\u011fi\u015ftirecek.<\/p>\n

1970\u2032lerdeki petrol fiyat\u0131nda ya\u015fanan \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan, birincil enerji t\u00fcketimindeki pay\u0131 1973\u2032te y\u00fczde 48 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen petrolde, bu oran\u0131n 1985\u2032de y\u00fczde 39\u2032a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkati \u00e7ekilen raporda, yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7en fiyatlar\u0131n, petrol\u00fcn ekonomik olarak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Bu nedenle 2011\u2032de daha da daralan petrol pazar pay\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20 y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 28\u2032e d\u00fc\u015fmesi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn sekt\u00f6rlere g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin, 2011\u2032de y\u00fczde 4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen elektrik \u00fcretimindeki pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2\u2032ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Sanayide, konut ve ticari ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lan petrol\u00fcn pay\u0131n\u0131n ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde azalmas\u0131n\u0131n daha yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, ula\u015f\u0131mda da y\u00fcksek fiyatlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k karl\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle en \u00e7ok kullan\u0131lan enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc olmaya devam edecek. Ancak ula\u015f\u0131mda da petrol\u00fcn pay\u0131n\u0131n 2011\u2032deki y\u00fczde 94\u2032l\u00fck pay\u0131n\u0131n, 2030\u2032da y\u00fczde 5 oran\u0131nda azalaca\u011f\u0131 kaydediliyor.<\/p>\n

Bioyak\u0131tlar ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n, ula\u015f\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n ise 2030\u2032a kadar y\u00fczde 5\u2032e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131, gaz\u0131n 2030\u2032a kadar ula\u015f\u0131mda pay\u0131 en h\u0131zl\u0131 artan alternatif enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle bioyak\u0131tlar\u0131 ge\u00e7ece\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Ula\u015f\u0131mda enerji t\u00fcketimindeki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n azalaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. Ula\u015f\u0131mdaki enerji talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, 1990-2010 y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki oran olan y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.9\u2032luk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 1.2\u2032ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Bu art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131nda, yak\u0131t tasarrufu sa\u011flayan yeni nesil ara\u00e7lar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131, ayr\u0131ca petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckselmenin s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131, OECD \u00fclkelerindeki ara\u00e7 doygunlu\u011funun etkisi olaca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00dcretim ve t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 e\u015fitlenecek<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnyada birincil enerji \u00fcretiminin, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.6 artarak, t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na 2030\u2032da denk d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u00dcretimdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak OECD \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkeler taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilece\u011fi kaydediliyor.<\/p>\n

Asya Pasifik B\u00f6lgesi, en b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6lgesel enerji \u00fcreticisi olarak, \u00fcretimde en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f trendini g\u00f6sterece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00fcretiminden dolay\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2.2 olmas\u0131 beklenen bu b\u00f6lge, global enerji \u00fcretiminde y\u00fczde 35\u2032lik bir paya sahip olacak.<\/p>\n

Ortado\u011fu ve Kuzey Amerika ise Asya Pasifik\u2019ten sonra, birincil enerji \u00fcretiminde ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f trendini g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n

Enerji \u00fcretiminin hemen hemen t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgelerde artaca\u011f\u0131, Avrupa\u2019da ise azalaca\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n

En h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f yenilenebilir enerjide olacak<\/strong><\/p>\n

En h\u0131zl\u0131 artan enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc ise yenilenebilir yak\u0131tlar\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr enerjide \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131n, 2011 ve 2030 aras\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 7.6 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer yak\u0131tta, s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,6, hidro enerjide ise y\u00fczde 2\u2032lik art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. Hidro ve n\u00fckleer enerji, 2030\u2032daki toplam enerji arz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 17\u2032lik pay\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Fosil yak\u0131tlar aras\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 beklenen ise y\u00fczde 2\u2032lik oranla gaz, bunu ise y\u00fczde 1,2\u2032lik oranla k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve y\u00fczde 0,8\u2032lik oranla da petrol\u00fcn takip etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Kaya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ise 2011\u2032den 2030\u2032a kadar toplam global enerji arz\u0131nda be\u015finci s\u0131rada yer almas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Kaya petrol\u00fc ve yenilenebilir enerjideki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen, fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde yine de enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131na dikkati \u00e7ekiliyor.<\/p>\n

Detayl\u0131 Rapora<\/strong> ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.BP, enerjide yeni trendler hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli ipuclar\u0131 veren Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2030 Raporu\u2019nu (Energy Outlook 2030), yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Rapora g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada enerji talebi, 2030\u2032a kadar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5743,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[51,53,47,43,44],"tags":[1198,853,886,19,2040,148,2036,1800,2039,2038,2035,2037,21,2041,59,79,885,105],"views":829,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5742"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5742"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5742\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5745,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5742\/revisions\/5745"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5743"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}