{"id":5004,"date":"2013-01-08T11:35:38","date_gmt":"2013-01-08T08:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=5004"},"modified":"2013-01-08T11:35:38","modified_gmt":"2013-01-08T08:35:38","slug":"bu-yila-damgasini-vuracak-gosterge-varil-petrol-farki","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/bu-yila-damgasini-vuracak-gosterge-varil-petrol-farki\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Bu Y\u0131la Damgas\u0131n\u0131 Vuracak G\u00f6sterge: Varil Petrol Fark\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Bu y\u0131l piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gereken endikat\u00f6rlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda Brent petrol\u00fc ile ABD hampetrol\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri geliyor. Benim beklentim bu fark\u0131n 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda 15 dolar\u0131n da alt\u0131na gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Fark\u0131n gerilemesi bize \u015fu mesaj\u0131 verecek: ABD\u2019deki t\u00fcketici talebi art\u0131yor, yani i\u015fler d\u00fczeliyor. Bizim i\u00e7in \u2018iyi haber\u2019 olan petrolde arz fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 da yine bu fark\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden olacak.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Piyasalar yeni y\u0131la olduk\u00e7a hareketli ba\u015flad\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu y\u0131l da karar al\u0131rken bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6stergeyi dikkate alacak. Ancak bana g\u00f6re bu g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda \u00f6yle bir tanesi var ki bu y\u0131la damgas\u0131na vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

Laf\u0131 dola\u015ft\u0131rmadan s\u00f6yleyeyim y\u0131l\u0131n endikat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc: \u201cVaril Petrol Fark\u0131\u201d (VPF)<\/p>\n

O da ne diyeceksiniz\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"Asl\u0131nda basit: Brent petrol\u00fc ile ABD ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren WTI (West Texas Intermediate) aras\u0131ndaki varil baz\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131. \u0130lk olarak 2009 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u201cge\u00e7ici\u201d, 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana da kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 WTI\u2019\u0131 ge\u00e7ti! Daha \u00f6nceleri WTI ortalama 4 dolar kadar Brent petrol\u00fcnden daha pahal\u0131yd\u0131. Ancak kriz sonras\u0131nda bu fark Brent lehine 27 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi! (Bizim i\u00e7in k\u00f6t\u00fc haber, hi\u00e7 de gerekmiyordu!)<\/p>\n

Kriz s\u0131ras\u0131nda ve sonras\u0131nda bu fark\u0131 yaratan \u00fc\u00e7 temel de\u011fi\u015fiklik oldu:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1- ABD\u2019de krizle birlikte t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla t\u00fcketim azald\u0131! ABD\u2019nin petrol depolama merkezi Cushing\u2019de (Oklahoma) stoklar her y\u0131l \u201cson 5 y\u0131l\u0131n (petrol stoklar\u0131ndaki genel kabul g\u00f6ren k\u0131yaslama s\u00fcresi ) en y\u00fcksek seviyesine\u201d \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131! ABD, Meksika, Kanada ve Alaska\u2019daki petrol \u00fcretimlerini ABD pazar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yan boru hatlar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin \u201cmerkezine\u201d y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, k\u0131y\u0131lara uzanan boru hatlar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ihracat yap\u0131lam\u0131yor. Bu durum da Brent-WTI aras\u0131ndaki arbitraj imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan; aradaki fark\u0131n de\u011fil kapanmas\u0131na, tam tersine artmas\u0131na tan\u0131k olduk.<\/p>\n

Tabii ki bunun bir sebebi de Brent ile petrol alan \u00c7in dahil geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin taleplerinin; b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomileri nedeniyle; artmaya devam ediyor olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin talebi artarken, ABD\u2019de talep d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden VPF y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e y\u00fckseldi\u2026<\/p>\n

2- \u0130ran-\u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik de Brent baz\u0131nda fiyatlanan (buna Dubai ve Singapur fiyatlamalar\u0131 da dahil asl\u0131nda) petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n WTI\u2019a g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131nda sebep oldu. Her ne kadar ABD\u2019deki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u0130ran\u2019a uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar nedeniyle azalan \u0130ran petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 Suudi Arabistan fazlas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131lasa da yine de bu \u201cgerilimin\u201d s\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da VPF\u2019nin; gerilemesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde engel te\u015fkil etti.<\/p>\n

3- Belki de en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fme konvansiyonel petrol \u00e7\u0131karma y\u00f6nteminde ya\u015fanan \u201cradikal\u201d de\u011fi\u015fiklik. Asl\u0131nda bu \u201cteknolojik devrim\u201d do\u011falgaz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131. \u201cKaya\u00e7 Gaz\u0131\u201d teknolojisinden bahsediyorum. Kaya katmanlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda su ve beton \u201cenjekte edilerek\u201d gaz\u0131n ve benzer \u015fekilde petrol\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilmesine olanak tan\u0131yan bu teknolojinin son 5 y\u0131lda h\u0131zla geli\u015fmesi ABD\u2019de do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 dibe indirirken, ayn\u0131 zamanda petrol \u00fcretim maliyetlerini de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. ABD 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda enerjide \u201ckendi kendine yeten \u00fclke\u201d olma yolunda emin ad\u0131mlarla ilerliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu \u00fc\u00e7 temel de\u011fi\u015fiklik VPF\u2019nin 20 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na, y\u00fcksek seyrini korumas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Ancak bu durumun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131ldan itibaren de\u011fi\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bence art\u0131yor. Bu varsay\u0131m\u0131m ard\u0131nda yine \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli dayanak var:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1- \u201cKaya\u00e7 (kaya) Gaz\u0131 teknolojisi\u201dnin de yard\u0131m\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin hampetrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 6.5 milyon varile y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Evet, diyebilirsiniz ki bu durum VPF\u2019nin daha da artmas\u0131na sebep olur. Sorar\u0131m size bu art\u0131\u015f ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD\u2019nin ithal etti\u011fi petrol miktar\u0131n\u0131 da azaltmayacak m\u0131? Peki daha \u00f6nceleri ABD\u2019ye mal satanlar, satamad\u0131klar\u0131 petrol\u00fc nereye, ya da hangi fiyattan satacaklar?<\/p>\n

2- Irak\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretimi h\u0131zla art\u0131yor. Sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen Irak\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretimi 2012\u2019de 3 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 2020\u2019de 6 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Bu arada Libya\u2019y\u0131 da unutmayal\u0131m. 2.4 milyon varilden 600 bin varile d\u00fc\u015fen Libya \u00fcretimi, \u00fclke d\u00fczenini oturttu\u011funda yeniden bu seviyeye y\u00fckselecek ve hatta yeni yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla bu seviyenin de \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kacak!<\/p>\n

3- Obama se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecinin \u201cgizli kahraman\u0131\u201d ve son OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015fmesin diye \u00fcretimini g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2 milyon varil k\u0131san Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u201cat\u0131l kapasitesi\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 bir araya getirdi\u011fimizde 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda genel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki \u201ctalep bask\u0131s\u0131\u201d, \u201carz fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131na\u201d d\u00f6nebilir. (Bu arada 2008 Temmuz\u2019unda Brent\u2019i 145 dolarlara dolara \u00e7\u0131kartan \u201cZirve Petrol\u201d masal\u0131n\u0131 da bu aralar hi\u00e7 duymaz olduk!) Bu arada 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki istisna d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; MB\u2019nin 107 dolar y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmesini bekliyorum!<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmeler sonras\u0131nda VPF\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015fmesi gerekiyor:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Benim beklentim bu fark\u0131n 2013\u2019te 15 dolar\u0131n da alt\u0131na gerilemesi.<\/p>\n

Bu fark\u0131n gerilemesi 2 \u015feyi ifade edecek:<\/p>\n

1- ABD\u2019deki t\u00fcketici talebi art\u0131yor; i\u015fler d\u00fczeliyor!<\/p>\n

2- Petrolde arz fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 (bizim i\u00e7in iyi haber!)<\/p>\n

Bu iki geli\u015fmenin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesi gerekiyor. VPF yani \u201cy\u0131l\u0131n endikat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn\u201d bu konuda \u00f6nc\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum.<\/p>\n

\u201cY\u0131l\u0131n endikat\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn\u201d iyile\u015fmeyi g\u00f6steriyor olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok temel bir varsay\u0131m\u0131 daha var: \u0130ran-\u0130srail aras\u0131nda sava\u015f ya da sava\u015f benzeri bir s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 gerekiyor! Sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kmasa bile \u201cmermi at\u0131lmasa da havada barut kokusunun\u201d olmas\u0131 bile t\u00fcm bu varsay\u0131mlar\u0131 bir anda \u00e7\u00f6pe atabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu durumda bile VPF yine \u201cy\u0131l\u0131n endikat\u00f6r\u00fc\u201d olarak \u00e7ok i\u015fe yarayacak!<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fin bir ba\u015fka boyutu daha var. Diyelim ki \u0130ran-ABD (P5+1) aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015flad\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu\u2019da bir s\u0131cak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali azald\u0131. Beraberinde Suriye meselesi \u201c\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc ya da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u201d. Bu geli\u015fmelerle birlikte \u0130ran\u2019a uygulanan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar da azald\u0131! Sizce bu durumda petrol arz\u0131 en az\u0131ndan 1.5-2 milyon varil daha artar m\u0131?<\/p>\n

Bence artar. Bu durumda VPF ne olur?<\/p>\n

Bence d\u00fc\u015fer\u2026<\/p>\n

Dedim ya \u201ciki petrol fiyat\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark (VPF)\u201d bu sene \u00e7ok i\u015fe yarayacak \u00e7oook\u2026<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Bu y\u0131l piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gereken endikat\u00f6rlerin ba\u015f\u0131nda Brent petrol\u00fc ile ABD hampetrol\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 g\u00f6steren veri geliyor. Benim beklentim bu fark\u0131n 2013 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[1737,1736,67,59,1738,1739],"views":543,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5004"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5004"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5004\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5007,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5004\/revisions\/5007"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}