{"id":49420,"date":"2016-01-22T19:10:09","date_gmt":"2016-01-22T16:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=49420"},"modified":"2016-01-22T19:10:09","modified_gmt":"2016-01-22T16:10:09","slug":"irana-yaptirimlarin-kalkmasi-yeni-ittifak-ve-yeni-ortadogu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/irana-yaptirimlarin-kalkmasi-yeni-ittifak-ve-yeni-ortadogu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) \u0130ran\u2019a Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n Kalkmas\u0131: \u2018Yeni \u0130ttifak\u2019 ve \u2018Yeni Ortado\u011fu…\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fi, b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ve \u0130ran i\u00e7inde farkl\u0131 siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadelenin seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni bir d\u00f6nem ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD-\u0130ran ittifak\u0131n\u0131 do\u011furabilecek yeni bir d\u00f6nem mi ba\u015fl\u0131yor? Hatta baz\u0131 iddialara g\u00f6re \"irana-yaptirimlarin-kalkmasi-yeni-ittifak-ve-yeni-ortadogu\"<\/a>hayli uzun zaman \u00f6nce ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan bu ittifak bug\u00fcnlerde, \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 n\u00fckleer program\u0131 vesilesiyle konan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k ve resmiyet mi kazand\u0131? Bu sorulara \u201cevet\u201d cevab\u0131n\u0131 vermek, daha do\u011frusu bu spek\u00fclasyonlar\u0131 olumlamak imkans\u0131z; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc eldeki somut veriler bizi b\u00f6yle bir sonuca g\u00f6t\u00fcrm\u00fcyor. Bu soru bir cevap bulmak i\u00e7in sorulmu\u015f bir soru de\u011fil. Daha \u00e7ok peki\u015fmi\u015f bir kanaati d\u0131\u015far\u0131 vuruyor. Hislere yenik d\u00fc\u015fmenin refkleksi i\u00e7inde meseleye yakla\u015fanlar adeta buluttan nem kapm\u0131\u015f\u00e7as\u0131na ortaya bir ittifak\u0131n \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa h\u00fckmediyorlar.<\/p>\n

Ortada bir ABD-\u0130ran ittifak\u0131 yok. Ancak taraflar\u0131n anla\u015fma h\u00fck\u00fcmlerine g\u00f6re hareket etmeleri halinde, ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fi, b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ve \u0130ran i\u00e7inde farkl\u0131 siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadelenin seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni bir d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki sorular\u0131n sorulmas\u0131na neden olan geli\u015fmelerin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 2003\u2019te baz\u0131 ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n da kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla ABD\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi Irak m\u00fcdahalesine kadar gidiyor. Ancak bu sorular Hasan Ruhani\u2019nin \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesinden sonra ba\u015flayan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer n\u00fckleer program\u0131 y\u00f6nelik m\u00fczakerelerin ard\u0131ndan daha fazla dile getirilmeye ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran ile 5+1 grubu (ABD, Rusya, \u00c7in, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Fransa ve Almanya) aras\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler 14 Temmuz 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir anla\u015fma ile neticelenmi\u015fti. Kapsaml\u0131 Ortak Eylem Plan\u0131 (KOEP) olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan bu anla\u015fmada taraflar bir yol haritas\u0131 belirlemi\u015flerdi. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin KOEP\u2019i onaylamas\u0131ndan 90 g\u00fcn sonra anla\u015fma kabul edilmi\u015f olacakt\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Atom Enerjisi Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (UAEA) \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fmada \u00f6ng\u00fcr\u00fclen \u015fartlar\u0131 yerine getirdi\u011fini tasdik etmesinden sonra da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girecekti.<\/p>\n

16 Ocak\u2019ta UAEA, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer ara\u015ft\u0131rma tesislerinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tefti\u015fler neticesinde, KOEP \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcstlenmi\u015f oldu\u011fu y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri yerine getirdi\u011fini rapor etti. Bunun \u00fczerine ABD ve AB taraf\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ba\u015fta Suudi Arabistan olmak \u00fczere K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri, \u0130srail, Amerikan sa\u011f\u0131 (Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Kongre \u00fcyeleri ve neo-conlar) ve hatta \u0130ran\u2019daki ABD ile ili\u015fkilerde yumu\u015famaya kar\u015f\u0131 olan \u015fahin muhafazakar kanat taraf\u0131ndan olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bilindi\u011fi gibi, Suudi Arabistan ve di\u011fer K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinde, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda Saddam H\u00fcseyin y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen ABD liderli\u011findeki askeri m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131ndaki rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin \u0130ran lehine de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011furmu\u015ftu. Irak\u2019ta se\u00e7imle i\u015fba\u015f\u0131na gelen \u015eii partilerden olu\u015fan h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin \u0130ran\u2019la yak\u0131n ili\u015fki i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131, K\u00f6rfez taraf\u0131ndan Irak\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a teslim edilmesi gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Arap Bahar\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde \u0130ran ve onun kontrol\u00fcndeki g\u00fc\u00e7lerin Suriye\u2019de oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 role ilaveten Bahreyn ve Yemen\u2019deki geli\u015fmeler ve Arap Ortado\u011fu\u2019sundaki \u015eii n\u00fcfus \u00fczerindeki \u0130ran etkisi Suudi Arabistan ve m\u00fcttefiklerinde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede hegemonya kurma amac\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 fikrini peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bir ka\u00e7 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce \u0130srailli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu \u0130srail Milli G\u00fcvenlik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn Tel Aviv\u2019de d\u00fczenledi\u011fi konferansta konu\u015fan Yaalon, \u201c\u0130ran ve I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in ikisinden biri ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma konusunda tercihte bulunmam istense I\u015e\u0130D ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 se\u00e7erim\u201d ifadesini kullanmaktan \u00e7ekinmedi. \u0130srail \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hem s\u00f6ylemlerinden rahats\u0131z hem de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Hamas, \u0130slami Cihad ve Hizbullah gibi hareketlere olan deste\u011fini kendisine y\u00f6nlendirilmi\u015f do\u011frudan bir tehdit olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor. \u0130ran resmi s\u00f6ylemine g\u00f6re de \u0130srail b\u00f6lgede bar\u0131\u015f ve istikrar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019li \u015fahin Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler ve neo-konservatifler ise hem ABD\u2019nin hem k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na tehdit olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri i\u00e7in hem de \u0130srail\u2019e olan kay\u0131ts\u0131z \u015farts\u0131z destekleri nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019a \u015fiddetle kar\u015f\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Aralar\u0131nda Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n da dahil oldu\u011fu \u0130ranl\u0131 \u015fahin muhafazakarlar ise yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n devam etmesi pahas\u0131na uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkilerde eski gerilim politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirmekten yanalar. Devrim sonras\u0131 olu\u015fan stat\u00fckodan kaynaklanan yerle\u015fik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak arzusu, i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f siyasette onlar\u0131 pragmatik Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ruhani ve kabinesi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hareket etmeye y\u00f6nlendiriyor. Ruhani ve ekibinin her ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 muhafazakarlar\u0131n zemin kaybetmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Ruhani pragmatizminin engellenememesi durumunda reformistlerin lehine bir zemin kaymas\u0131 ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n endi\u015fesini ya\u015famaktalar.<\/p>\n

Kald\u0131r\u0131lan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar sadece n\u00fckleer programa ili\u015fkin olmas\u0131na ve ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir dizi anla\u015fmazl\u0131k bulunan konular\u0131n bulunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerde yeni bir sayfa a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekir.<\/p>\n

Bu safhaya gelinmesini iki hususun etkiledi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilir. Bunlardan birincisi, ABD\u2019nin tehdit alg\u0131s\u0131nda \u2018\u015feytan imparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nun ya da d\u00fc\u015fman s\u00fcper devletin yerini Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019n\u0131n Birli\u011fin Durumu konu\u015fmas\u0131nda belirtti\u011fi gibi, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z devletlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu tehditler alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131n da ba\u015f\u0131nda I\u015e\u0130D ve El Kaide gibi ulus\u00f6tesi silahl\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctlerin eylemleri yer almaktad\u0131r. Amerikan y\u00f6netimi bunlara kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadeleyi, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da yeni i\u015fbirli\u011finin ortak zemini olarak g\u00f6rmekte ve \u0130ran\u2019la bu hususta \u00f6nemli bir ortak paydaya sahip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n

Bir di\u011fer durumda, Obama d\u00f6neminde Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda Asya Pasifik b\u00f6lgesi \u00f6ncelikli olarak odaklan\u0131lan jeopolitik merkez haline gelmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in\u2019i \u00e7evreleme ama\u00e7l\u0131 Asya-Pasifik siyaseti, Obama y\u00f6netiminin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki sorumluluklar\u0131n\u0131 ve y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirmektedir. Iran\u2019la olan sorunlar\u0131n Amerikan \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmeyecek \u015fekilde ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ve Iran\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 topluma kazand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc azaltaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca Irak\u2019ta istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 her iki \u00fclkenin de ortak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda bulunmaktad\u0131r. I\u015e\u0130D\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele ba\u011flam\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen mesafeli i\u015fbirli\u011fi muhtemelen her iki \u00fclkenin Suriye\u2019de de bir ortak noktaya gelmelerine etkide bulunacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a petrol \u00fcretimini art\u0131rma imkan\u0131 verecektir. Lakin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda bunun \u0130ran ekonomisine k\u0131sa vadede fazla bir imkan sa\u011flamas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131r. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 a\u015famas\u0131nda petrolden ziyade \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 bankalarda dondurulmu\u015f olan 100 milyar dolarl\u0131k varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131m sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te ekonominin idaresini nas\u0131l g\u00f6t\u00fcrece\u011fi \u015fimdiden bilinmese de pek \u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 \u015firketlerin pastadan pay almak i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019a temsilcilerini g\u00f6ndermeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131 bir ger\u00e7ek. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130ran ekonomisinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde ciddi bir hareketli\u011fin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fte \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n artan mali imkanlar\u0131 ve bunu \u00f6zellikle askeri ve siyasi g\u00fcce d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131p \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131da s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fimiz Suudi Arabistan ve m\u00fcttefiklerini, \u0130srail\u2019i ve \u015fahin Amerikal\u0131 Cumhuriyet\u00e7ileri ve neo-konservatifleri ciddi \u015fekilde rahats\u0131z etmekte. Yeni \u015fartlarda Ortado\u011fu b\u00f6lgesinin g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinde \u0130ran lehine de\u011fi\u015fimin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 kuvvetle muhtemel.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n i\u00e7inde ise mevcut anla\u015fma halihaz\u0131rda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ruhani ve ekibinin elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f durumda. Yeni kaynaklar\u0131n rasyonel kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede ciddi bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi durumunda muhafazakarlar\u0131n konumunun biraz daha sars\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir.<\/p>\n

ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme olan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00fcn sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi anlam\u0131na gelmemektedir. ABD, n\u00fckleer program d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki sorunlara ili\u015fkin uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara devam edece\u011fi gibi anla\u015fmalara ayk\u0131r\u0131 olarak balistik roket denemelerinde bulundu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yeni bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha devreye sokmu\u015ftur. Ayr\u0131ca, b\u00f6lgeye bak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n eskisinden farkl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faretlerini vermesine ra\u011fmen, ABD eski m\u00fcttefiklerini de kaybetmek istemedi\u011fini ifade etmektedir. \u0130ran\u2019la da anla\u015fmazl\u0131k i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu b\u00fct\u00fcn konular\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fc\u015f de\u011fildir. ABD\u2019den \u00e7o\u011fu zaman talep ettiklerini elde edebilmi\u015f olan \u0130srail\u2019in bu defa n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na engel olamamas\u0131, ABD\u2019nin yeni Ortado\u011fu tasavvurunda \u0130srail\u2019den vazge\u00e7ti\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmemektedir. Ancak \u0130srail\u2019le olan ili\u015fkilerde de farkl\u0131 bir tav\u0131r i\u00e7inde olunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sinyalleri verilmi\u015f olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:\u00a0D\u00fcnya B\u00fclteni<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. ABD-\u0130ran ili\u015fkilerinin gelece\u011fi, b\u00f6lgedeki g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi ve \u0130ran i\u00e7inde farkl\u0131 siyasi g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadelenin seyri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yeni bir d\u00f6nem ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD-\u0130ran […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[1198,28100,929,18227,886,63,67,1009,2698,165,1346,10201,24191,7847,885,28101,28102],"views":830,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49420"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49420"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49420\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49422,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49420\/revisions\/49422"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49420"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49420"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49420"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}