{"id":49398,"date":"2016-01-22T18:38:34","date_gmt":"2016-01-22T15:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=49398"},"modified":"2016-01-22T18:38:34","modified_gmt":"2016-01-22T15:38:34","slug":"yorum-turkiyenin-enerji-guvenliginde-zorlanma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/yorum-turkiyenin-enerji-guvenliginde-zorlanma\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Yorum: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Enerji G\u00fcvenli\u011finde Zorlanma!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Rusya ile Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sonunda patlak veren u\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme krizinden sonra enerji konusunda g\u00fcndeme gelen endi\u015feler \u00fclkede g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yetkililerin enerjide \u201cse\u00e7eneklerin\u201d oldu\u011fu y\u00f6nde beyanlar\u0131, \u201cgerekirse tezek yakar\u0131z\u201d gibi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olay\u0131n ciddiyetini kamufle etti.<\/span>\u00a0Oysa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck risk alt\u0131na girmi\u015fti. Kriz \u015fimdilik atlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorsa da, ilerisi i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcvence yok. Enerjide T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u201ckarn\u0131 yumu\u015fak.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kritik fakt\u00f6r<\/h2>\n

Enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011finin nas\u0131l t\"A<\/a>ehdit edildi\u011fini takdir etmek i\u00e7in do\u011falgaz ger\u00e7eklerine bakmak yeterli. T\u00fcrkiye Rusya\u2019dan halen iki hat \u00fczerinden do\u011falgaz al\u0131yor: Balkanlar \u00fczerinden gelen Bat\u0131 Hatt\u0131, ve Karadeniz yoluyla gelen Mavi Ak\u0131m Hatt\u0131. Bu hatlar\u0131n kontrat hacimleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u0131lda 14 ve 16 milyar m3, ve kontrat bitim s\u00fcreleri 2021 ve 2026. Taraflardan birinin kontrat\u0131 ihlal etmesi durumunda tazminat \u00f6deme zorunlu\u011fu do\u011far.<\/p>\n

Sorunun \u00f6z\u00fcnde do\u011falgazda Rusya\u2019ya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k var. 2014 rakamlar\u0131na g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye t\u00fcketti\u011fi do\u011falgaz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %99\u2019unu ithal ediyor, ve ithal edilen gaz\u0131n %55\u2019i (27 milyar m3) Rusya kaynakl\u0131. Geri kalan\u0131 \u0130ran (%18), Azerbaycan (%12) ve \u00f6teki \u00fclkelerden (%15, LNG=s\u0131v\u0131 gaz) olarak geliyor. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ithal Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimde olaca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcketilen do\u011falgaz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %48\u2019i elektrik \u00fcretiminde, %25\u2019i sanayide, %20\u2019si konutlarda kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. 2013 verilerine g\u00f6re do\u011falgaz\u0131n kurulu g\u00fc\u00e7 kapasitede pay\u0131 %36. \u00dclkede t\u00fcm 81 ilde, toplam hane say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131 do\u011falgaz kullan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu demektir ki, Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n bir yapt\u0131r\u0131m ya da misilleme yoluyla kesilmesiyle elektrik \u00fcretimi \u00fclke genelinde yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte bir oranda kesilecek, ve sanayi ve konutlarda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fanacak. Baz\u0131 kesimlerde sanayi felce u\u011frayacak, konutlarda vatanda\u015flar b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluk \u00e7ekecek. Bu arada ulusal g\u00fcvenlik riske girecek.<\/p>\n

En fazla etkilenecek b\u00f6lge, Bat\u0131 Hatt\u0131 ile beslenen ve sanayi ve elektrik santrallerinin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu \u0130stanbul ve Marmara \u00e7evresi olacak.<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaz arz\u0131nda olu\u015fabilecek bir kesintiyi bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6nlemeye ili\u015fik do\u011falgaz depolama tesisleri \u00fclkede \u00e7ok yetersiz. Silivri yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki depolama tesisinin geri \u00fcretim kapasitesi, bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck ithal Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya bile yetersiz. Tuz G\u00f6l\u00fc tesisi ancak 2017 sonunda devreye girebilecek; o da ancak k\u0131smen bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm getirebilecek.<\/p>\n

Yetkililer enerji t\u00fcketiminde petrol, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, yenilenebilir, ve hatta n\u00fckleer enerjiye a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek do\u011falgaz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n giderilmesinden de s\u00f6z ettiler. B\u00f6yle bir de\u011fi\u015fim y\u0131llar s\u00fcrer. Petrol ve k\u00f6m\u00fcre a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermek, ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 1980\u2019lerden bu yana temiz enerjiye \u00f6ncelik verme stratejesine ters d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n

Se\u00e7enek var m\u0131?<\/h2>\n

Do\u011falgaz al\u0131m\u0131nda Rus gaz\u0131na \u201cse\u00e7enek\u201d kaynak olarak ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclen \u00e7areler de \u2013 ki bunlar Azeri TANAP projesini h\u0131zland\u0131rma, o projedeki pay\u0131 artt\u0131rmak, Katar ve Kuzey Irak\u2019dan (K\u00fcrt Y\u00f6netimi) gaz almak olarak belirtildi \u2013 k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm getirmekten uzak. Katar gaz\u0131n\u0131n (LNG) bedeli y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 gibi, bu gaz\u0131 piyasaya s\u00fcrecek tesisler halen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yok bile. Tesislerin yap\u0131m\u0131 zaman ve b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m gerektirecek.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail (Do\u011fu Akdeniz) gaz\u0131 olana\u011f\u0131, Davos ve Mavi Marmara olaylar\u0131 nedeniyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Oysa maliyet, vb. hususlar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, T\u00fcrkiye \u0130srail gaz\u0131 i\u00e7in en uygun d\u0131\u015f piyasa. Bu y\u00f6nde 2014\u2019de g\u00fczel bir f\u0131rsat vard\u0131, ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Rusya krizinden sonra h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u0130srail gaz\u0131n\u0131 \u201chat\u0131rlad\u0131,\u201d \u015fimdi ona s\u0131cak bak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s do\u011falgaz\u0131 daha da \u00e7\u0131kmazda: KKTC sorununa ek olarak M\u00fcnhas\u0131r Ekonomik B\u00f6lge ihtilaf\u0131 var.<\/p>\n

\u201cGeni\u015fletilmi\u015f TANAP\u201d projesi uzun vadede ek se\u00e7enek. T\u00fcrkmen, ve uluslararas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kalkmas\u0131yla \u0130ran gaz\u0131 da, olanaklar aras\u0131nda; ancak bu noktada sorunlar var. Irak (merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmet) gaz\u0131 bu a\u015famada i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim ve petrol sahalar\u0131nda enjeksiyon i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131yor, daha sonra LNG olarak ihra\u00e7 edilecek; T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in se\u00e7enek olu\u015fturmaz.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sacas\u0131, Rus gaz\u0131 ile ilgili bir do\u011faigaz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 gidermek i\u00e7in \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fclen \u00f6nlemler ve se\u00e7enekler, k\u0131sa d\u00f6nem \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmaktan uzak<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tepkisi<\/h2>\n

Do\u011falgazda olu\u015fan bu endi\u015feli duruma kar\u015f\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gaz vanas\u0131n\u0131 kapatmamas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bir \u015fans, ve bir anlamda \u201cnimet\u201d olmu\u015ftur. Do\u011fald\u0131r ki, Rusya vanay\u0131 kapatmama karar\u0131n\u0131 kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bir gaz tedarik\u00e7isi olarak d\u00fcnya piyasas\u0131nda prestij kaybetmek istememesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak uluslararas\u0131 tahkime gidebilece\u011fi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Gazprom i\u00e7in karl\u0131 bir piyasa oldu\u011fu, ve en \u00f6nemlisi, T\u00fcrkiye-Rusya ticari ili\u015fkilerinin a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a Rusya\u2019n\u0131n lehine olmas\u0131 rol oynad\u0131.<\/p>\n

1998\u2019den bu yana Rusya ile olan ticari ili\u015fkilerde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin s\u00fcrekli ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu. Bir rapora g\u00f6re salt 2014\u2019de ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 19 milyar dolar\u0131 buldu.<\/p>\n

Karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda \u015fimdilik dondurulmu\u015f olan T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 do\u011falgaz projesini yeniden canland\u0131rma iste\u011fi de rol oynam\u0131\u015f olmal\u0131. Bu proje Rusya i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n

Ancak Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu noktadaki karar\u0131n\u0131n ileride de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi hususunda bir g\u00fcvence verilemez. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n Rusya ile olan tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 giri\u015fimlere Rusya Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Putin\u2019den olumlu yan\u0131t gelmedi. \u0130kili ili\u015fkiler daha vahim bir a\u015famaya gelirse, u\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme olay\u0131nda rahats\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6fkesini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dile getiren Putin\u2019in ekonomik hususlar\u0131 arka plana koyup tutumunu de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi olanak d\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Rusya ani bir kararla do\u011falgaz\u0131 keserse Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alarm zilini \u00e7alacak, elektrik \u00fcretimi dahil, gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ya\u015fanacak.<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaz bir yana, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n tar\u0131m, in\u015faat, turizm gibi sekt\u00f6rlerde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ambargo nedeniyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fck gelir kayb\u0131 olacak. CHP traf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan bir rapora g\u00f6re bu kayb\u0131n y\u0131lda 8.5 ile 12 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. K\u00fclt\u00fcr ve Turizm Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerine g\u00f6re 2016\u2019da Rusya\u2019dan 4.5 milyon turist kayb\u0131 olacak. Yeni bir habere g\u00f6re Rusya T\u00fcrk mallar\u0131na ili\u015fik ambargoyu hafifletmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Sonucu g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Gelinen nokta<\/h2>\n

Gelinen nokta, enerji yetkililerinin do\u011falgaz tedarikinde Rusya\u2019ya a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olman\u0131n sak\u0131ncal\u0131 oldu\u011fu uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ciddiye almad\u0131klar\u0131ndan do\u011fmu\u015ftur. Bu konu 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda Mavi Ak\u0131m projesi g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011finde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, uyar\u0131lar g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edildi. T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131 birtak\u0131m mazaretler ya da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckler nedeniyle zaman\u0131nda ihmal edildi.<\/p>\n

K\u0131sacas\u0131, u\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme olay\u0131ndan sonra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck risk alt\u0131na girdi. Buna paralel olarak ulusal g\u00fcvenlikte de bir zafiyet olu\u015ftu\u011fu yads\u0131namaz. Do\u011falgaz krizi \u015fimdilik Rusya\u2019n\u0131n karar\u0131 ile atlat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyorsa da, ilerisi i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcvence verilemez. Rus gaz\u0131na k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir se\u00e7enek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu ba\u011flamda \u015fimdilik yapabilece\u011fi bir \u015fey yok.<\/p>\n

Ve bir ekleme yapal\u0131m: Elektrik santrallar\u0131 tezek ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz!<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, do\u011falgaz vanas\u0131 kesilmese bile, ticari tablo T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n 17 saniye ihlal edilmesi nedeniyle Rus u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi kan\u0131m\u0131zca bir jeopolitk gaflet olmu\u015ftur. Enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u201ckarn\u0131 yumu\u015fak.\u201d<\/p>\n

Soru i\u015fareti<\/h2>\n

Bu vesileyle bir noktaya daha de\u011finelim: Azeri gaz\u0131n\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 olan \u015eah Deniz sahas\u0131n\u0131n ortaklar\u0131, 1996\u2019da ald\u0131klar\u0131 ortak bir kararla bu gaz\u0131n ihrac\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye \u00f6ncelik verilece\u011fini kayda ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ancak her ne hikmetse, hem Faz I ve hem de Faz II kapsam\u0131nda ihrac\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen Azeri gaz\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 (y\u0131lda 10 milyar m3) Avrupa\u2019ya tahsis edildi, T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u0131lda 6.6 (Faz I) ve 6 (Faz II) milyar m3 pay ile \u201c\u00fcvey evlat\u201d muamelesi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Oysa b\u00fcy\u00fck pay T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye tahsis edilseyd\u0131 do\u011falgazda Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k azal\u0131r, \u015fimdi ya\u015fanan riskli durum biraz hafiflerdi.<\/p>\n

Konsorsiyum\u2019un bu karar\u0131 bug\u00fcne de\u011fin ni\u00e7in g\u00f6zard\u0131 edildi? \u0130lgin\u00e7dir ki, Konsorsiyum \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrk milli petrol \u015firketi TPAO var.<\/p>\n

Dr. Ferruh Demirmen<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Not: Ek bilgi i\u00e7in:\u00a0http:\/\/www.naturalgaseurope.com\/russian-plane-incident-puts-turkey-in-a-difficult-position-on-energy-27608<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Rusya ile Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 sonunda patlak veren u\u00e7ak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme krizinden sonra enerji konusunda g\u00fcndeme gelen endi\u015feler \u00fclkede g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yetkililerin enerjide \u201cse\u00e7eneklerin\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53],"tags":[4707,63,67,28087,1009,2698,165,4143,2012,4221,2297,28088,23450,28089],"views":580,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49398"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49398"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49400,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49398\/revisions\/49400"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}