{"id":48788,"date":"2016-01-06T13:20:50","date_gmt":"2016-01-06T10:20:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=48788"},"modified":"2016-01-06T13:20:50","modified_gmt":"2016-01-06T10:20:50","slug":"yorum-rusya-krizinde-akkuyu-nukleer-santralinin-gelecegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/yorum-rusya-krizinde-akkuyu-nukleer-santralinin-gelecegi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Yorum: Rusya Krizinde Akkuyu N\u00fckleer Santral\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Gelece\u011fi…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Akkuyu\u2019da yap\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flanan, herbiri 1200 MegaWatt (MW) elektriksel g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc N\u00fckleer G\u00fc\u00e7 Santral\u0131n\u0131n (NGS) Rusya taraf\u0131ndan kurulmas\u0131 ve 60 y\u0131l i\u015fletilmesi amac\u0131yla, Haziran 2010\u2019da Rusya ile yap\u0131lan anla\u015fma, 21 Temmuz 2010\u2019da TBMM\u2019de onaylanarak yasala\u015ft\u0131 (Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar i\u00e7in bkz.\/1,2\/).<\/span>\u00a0Anla\u015fma, Rusya Federasyonunca 24 Kas\u0131m 2010\u2019da onayland\u0131ktan sonra, Rus taraf\u0131 reakt\u00f6rleri kurmak ve ileride devreden \u00e7\u0131karmak (s\u00f6kmek) i\u00e7in \u2018Akkuyu N\u00fckleer\u00a0 G\u00fc\u00e7 Elektrik \u00dcretim A.\u015e.\u2019ni (APC) kurdu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu arada, geni\u015fletilmi\u015f \u00c7ED raporu yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f ve liman in\u015faat\u0131na ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015f olmakla birlikte santral\u0131n temeli, aradan ge\u00e7en 5 y\u0131la ra\u011fmen, hen\u00fcz at\u0131lamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\"yorum-rusya-krizinde-akkuyu-nukleer-santralinin-gelecegi\"<\/a><\/p>\n

4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc Akkuyu n\u00fckleer santral\u0131n\u0131n maket resmi (k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 beyazl\u0131 olanlar at\u0131k gaz bacalar\u0131)<\/p>\n

Akkuyu n\u00fckleer santral\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131m ve i\u015fletme giderlerini\u00a0 anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re (\u2018yap, i\u015flet ve bize elektrik sat\u2019\u00a0<\/strong>modeli) t\u00fcm\u00fcyle Rus \u015eirketi \u00fcstlenecek ve ileride santral\u0131n sahibi olacakt\u0131r, santral T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye devredilmeyecektir. Bu nedenle h\u00fck\u00fcmet, Akkuyu N\u00fckleer G\u00fc\u00e7 Santal\u0131\u2019yla (NGS) ilgili olarak b\u00fct\u00e7esinde herhangi bir para ay\u0131rmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Medyada yer alan haberlere g\u00f6re Rus \u015firketi, bug\u00fcne kadar Akkuyu NGS\u2019yla ilgili olarak 3 milyar dolar harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Enerji Magazin\u2018in internetteki 4 Aral\u0131k 2015 g\u00fcnk\u00fc sayfas\u0131nda:<\/p>\n

\u201aRusya Ekonomi ve Geli\u015fim Bakan\u0131 Aleksey Ulyukaev, T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 ve Akkuyu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin Rus h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin karar\u0131yla dondurulmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131,\u00a0bu projelerin gelece\u011finin \u015firketlere ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu\u00a0<\/strong>bildirdi\u2018<\/em>\u00a0c\u00fcmlesi yer al\u0131yor. \u201a\u015eirketlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131\u2018<\/strong>\u00a0s\u00f6yleminden ne sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7\u0131kabilir? biraz irdeleyelim:<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye, Akkuyu\u2019da yap\u0131lacak 4 reakt\u00f6rden ilk ikisinde \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin %70\u2019ni, di\u011fer iki reakt\u00f6rde \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin %30\u2019nu sat\u0131n alma garantisini Rus \u015firketine vermi\u015ftir (12,35 ABD dolar-sent\/kWh fiyat\u0131ndan). Arta kalan miktar\u0131, Rus \u015firketi serbest piyasaya satabilecektir. \u0130leride serbest piyasa, arta kalan elektri\u011fi s\u00fcrekli olarak sat\u0131n almad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Rus \u015firketi fazla elektri\u011fi Suriye ve Irak gibi kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere enerji hatlar\u0131 d\u00f6\u015feyerek satmay\u0131 tasarlam\u0131\u015f olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yoksa maliyeti \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc bir n\u00fckleer santral\u0131n yap\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye, 4 reakt\u00f6rde \u00fcretilecek toplam elektrik miktar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in bir garanti vermedi\u011finden \u00fcstlenmezdi san\u0131r\u0131z. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda Suriye ve Irak\u2019taki bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kaos durumu bulunmuyordu. Yak\u0131n gelecekte Rusya\u2019yla olan bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kriz atlat\u0131lsa bile, g\u00fcneydeki enerji nakil hatlar\u0131n\u0131n, trafolar\u0131n sabotaj\u0131 gibi nedenlerle, santrallarda \u00fcretilen artakalan elektri\u011fin iletilemeyece\u011fi, sat\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, Akkuyu\u2019da 4 reakt\u00f6rden belki son ikisinin yap\u0131lmamas\u0131 ve hatta Akkuyu projesinin t\u00fcm\u00fcyle durdurulmas\u0131 giri\u015fimlerinde bulunabilece\u011fi de g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kriz s\u00fcrerse, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nce santral\u0131n yap\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatarak daha fazla para harcamayaca\u011f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2016\u2019da santral\u0131n temelinin at\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Kriz s\u00fcresi uzad\u0131k\u00e7a Akkuyu n\u00fckleer santral\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131m\u0131 da uzayaca\u011f\u0131ndan, giderler de gitgide artacakt\u0131r. \u0130leride santral yap\u0131l\u0131p \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi devreye sokulamazsa, hatta yap\u0131m\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitli gerek\u00e7elerle (\u00f6rne\u011fin yarg\u0131 yoluyla) engellenirse, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n, ilerideki b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda bug\u00fcne kadar harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 3 milyar dolar, \u00e7ok daha az \u00a0kalaca\u011f\u0131ndan, Rusya, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc kayb\u0131 g\u00f6ze alabilir ve santral yap\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 durdurma yoluna gidebilir (Zarar\u0131n neresinden d\u00f6n\u00fcl\u00fcrse, o kadar kard\u0131r!, mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla). Bunun ilk i\u015faretini, son g\u00fcnlerde medyada yer alan, Akkuyu i\u00e7in yeti\u015ftirilen T\u00fcrk \u00f6\u011frencilerinin yaka pa\u00e7a Rusya\u2019dan at\u0131lma haberi veriyor.<\/p>\n

Unutmamak gerekir ki bir n\u00fckleer santral, bir otomobil fabrikas\u0131 gibi i\u015fletilemiyor. N\u00fckleer santral\u0131n ileride sorunsuz i\u015fletilmesi, ancak iki \u00fclkenin dostlu\u011fuyla, n\u00fckleer santral\u0131 i\u015fletecek personelin Rusya\u2019da e\u011fitilmesiyle, \u2018on the job training\u2019 ile deneyim kazanmas\u0131yla, Rusya\u2019dan gerekti\u011finde ilgili uzmanlar\u0131n \u00e7abucak getirilebilmesiyle, n\u00fckleer yak\u0131t\u0131n ve radyoaktif at\u0131klar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli olarak ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 ve depolanmas\u0131yla ve ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek \u00e7ok \u00e7e\u015fitli sorunlara birlikte, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 anlay\u0131\u015f i\u00e7inde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlerin aranmas\u0131yla, s\u00fcrebilir. K\u0131saca: \u2019Yap,i\u015flet ve bize elektrik sat modeli\u2019 ancak iki \u00fclke dost oldu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, s\u00fcrebilir. Yoksa a\u011f\u0131r aksak, engellemelerle, kesintilerle ilerler ki, bunun iki tarafa da bir yarar\u0131 olamayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n

Akkuyu N\u00fckleer Santral Anla\u015fmas\u0131 Bozulursa Ne Olur?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fin hukuki yan\u0131n\u0131, anla\u015fmay\u0131 inceleyecek hukuk\u00e7ular a\u00e7\u0131klayabilirler. Biz i\u015fin tekni\u011fine bakarsak, h\u00fck\u00fcmet, ya b\u00fct\u00e7eden para ay\u0131r\u0131p ba\u015fka bir \u015firkete modern bir n\u00fckleer santral\u0131 Akkuyu\u2019da yapt\u0131rtabilir ya da yine ayn\u0131 \u2018yap i\u015flet modeline\u2019 g\u00f6re bulunabilirse ba\u015fka bir \u015firket devreye girebilir. Ancak san\u0131r\u0131z bu ikincisine, \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar etme riski\u2019 nedeniyle\u2019 teklif verebilecek \u015firketleri bulabilmek, kolay olmayacakt\u0131r. 2010 \u00f6ncesi, Akkuyu i\u00e7in bat\u0131l\u0131 \u015firketler yap i\u015flet modelinde \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar etme\u2019 riski g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinden, tekliflerini geri \u00e7ektiler, sadece Rusya ile anla\u015fma yap\u0131labildi.<\/p>\n

Rus \u015firketi, Akkuyu NGS i\u015fletildi\u011finde \u00e7ok kar edece\u011fi i\u00e7in mi, santral yap\u0131m\u0131ndan vaz ge\u00e7emeyecek?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bug\u00fcne kadar bat\u0131l\u0131 \u015firketlerin kurduklar\u0131 NGS\u2019lardan elde edilen deneyimlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu sonucu \u00f6nceden a\u00e7\u0131klamak yararl\u0131 olabilir:<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u2018Bir n\u00fckleer santral\u0131n yap\u0131m s\u00fcresi ve mal olu\u015f fiyat\u0131, ancak bitti\u011fi ve elektrik \u00fcretimine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman belli olur, bunlar, \u00f6nceden ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olarak hesaplanamaz\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Akkuyu\u2019daki 4 n\u00fckleer reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc santral ileride i\u015fletildi\u011finde, ilk 15 y\u0131lda, Rus \u015firketinin elektrik sat\u0131m\u0131ndan 70 milyar dolar gelir elde edece\u011fi ve bu karl\u0131 i\u015ften kolayca vazge\u00e7emeyece\u011fi medyada yer al\u0131yor \/3\/.\u00a0 \u201970 milyar dolar gelir elde etme\u2019 yanl\u0131\u015f olarak \u2018 b\u00fcy\u00fck kar etme\u2019 \u015feklinde sunulup\u00a0 alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan durumu a\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m:<\/p>\n

\u00d6nce \u015funu belirtelim: 70 milyar dolar hesaplan\u0131rken, elektrik \u00fcretiminde, santral\u0131n veriminin (ya da kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n) % 90 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Yani 4 reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn sadece %10\u2019luk freyle 15 y\u0131l boyunca her an\u00a0 \u015febekeye elektrik verece\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131yor ki bu yakla\u015f\u0131m hi\u00e7 ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fildir. Hesaplama, 15 y\u0131l i\u00e7in 4 reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn toplam 4800 MW ve % 75 verimle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fi varsay\u0131larak \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin 0,1235 usd\/kWh fiyat\u0131ndan sat\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131l\u0131rsa, daha do\u011fru \u2018ortalama bir de\u011fer\u2019 bulunabilir ama bunun bile iyi bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez ve bu co\u011frafyadaki ko\u015fullarda % 75 verimin de \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olur (*) :<\/p>\n

4 x 1200 MW x\u00a0 15 y\u0131l x 8760 saat\/y\u0131l x\u00a0 0,75 verim x 0,1235 usd\/kWh x 1000kW\/MW<\/p>\n

= 58,420 milyar usd. \u00a0Bu nedenle elektrik sat\u0131larak, 15 y\u0131lda bu gelire ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 bile ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Akkuyu\u2019daki ilk reakt\u00f6r\u00fcn temeli 5 y\u0131lda at\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, bunun, yap\u0131m s\u00fcresi sonunda elektrik \u00fcretebilmesi i\u00e7in, daha 5-10 y\u0131l ge\u00e7ece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir, o da kriz yak\u0131nda atlat\u0131l\u0131r, her\u015fey normal y\u00fcr\u00fcr ve yarg\u0131 yoluyla vb. engellemeler olmaz ise. Bu \u00e7e\u015fit ertelemeler ileride di\u011fer 3 reakt\u00f6r i\u00e7in de olabilir. Reakt\u00f6rlerin 10 y\u0131l\u0131 ge\u00e7ebilecek uzun yap\u0131m s\u00fcreleri boyunca, \u015firketin, bankalardan her y\u0131l\u00a0 ortalama \u00a0\u00a01-2 milyar dolar kredi alaca\u011f\u0131, buna her y\u0131l eklenen yeni kredilerle, biriken faizlerle bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fcn ve geri \u00f6deme taksitlerinin\u00a0 gitgide artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmelidir.<\/p>\n

Yukardaki hesaplamayla ileride birikece\u011fi kestirilen 58 milyar dolarl\u0131k gelire kar\u015f\u0131n, giderlerin ne olaca\u011f\u0131na bakmak ve bunlar\u0131 toplam gelirden d\u00fc\u015ferek \u015firketin kar m\u0131 zarar m\u0131? edece\u011fini kabaca kestirmek, durumu bir miktar a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa kavu\u015fturabilir.<\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer santral\u0131n \u2018normal \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma durumunda\u2019<\/strong>ki , giderler i\u00e7in, \u00f6rnekleri s\u0131ralarsak:<\/p>\n

Bankalara \u00f6denecek taksitler, n\u00fckleer yak\u0131ta (uranyum) ve ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na \u00f6denecek paralar, sigortalar, az, orta ve y\u00fcksek radyoaktiviteli kat\u0131 ve s\u0131v\u0131 at\u0131klar\u0131n, \u00f6nce bir miktar radyoaktivitelerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131yla\/giderilmesiyle ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, daha sonra radyoaktif at\u0131klar\u0131n grupland\u0131r\u0131larak varillerde toplanmas\u0131, ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 ve depolanmas\u0131yla ilgili giderler, kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yak\u0131t elemanlar\u0131n\u0131n Rusya\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki \u00f6nlemlerle ilgili giderler, her y\u0131l santralda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 zorunlu olan bak\u0131m, onar\u0131m giderleri, santral\u0131n i\u015fletilmesiyle ilgili personel, ara\u00e7, gere\u00e7 ve di\u011fer \u00e7ok \u00e7e\u015fitli giderler, vergiler ve ileride santral\u0131n s\u00f6k\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 zorunlu olacak paran\u0131n biriktirilmesi. \u00d6nceden tam olarak hesaplanamayan 15 y\u0131lda olu\u015facak yukardaki giderlerin toplam\u0131, 58 milyar dolar olarak varsay\u0131lan ilerideki toplam gelirden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ise, \u015firketin kar de\u011fil zarar etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hi\u00e7 de az de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Kald\u0131 ki t\u00fcm bu giderler, santral\u0131n normal \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ilgilidir. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir kaza durumunda ise ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak giderlerin devasa b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kestirebilmek olas\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u015firketler b\u00fcy\u00fck risk i\u00e7eren bu durumu g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerinden, \u2018yap i\u015flet ve bize elektrik sat\u2019 modelini kabul etmediler ve Akkuyu i\u00e7in tekliflerini geri \u00e7ektiler.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenlerle sonu\u00e7 olarak, Rus \u015firketi, ileride olu\u015facak t\u00fcm bu giderlerin, kriz ve g\u00fcneydeki kaos ya da belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayarak, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc krizden yararlan\u0131p, Akkuyu projesinden \u00e7ekilme yollar\u0131n\u0131 arayabilir.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet b\u00fct\u00e7eden para ay\u0131r\u0131p Akkuyu santral\u0131n\u0131 kurdurabilir mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fct\u00e7eden para ay\u0131rarak Akkuyu\u2019da modern bir n\u00fckleer santral\u0131 ba\u015fka bir \u015firkete yapt\u0131rabilmesi ise b\u00fct\u00e7eyi alt \u00fcst edece\u011finden eskiden Ecevit d\u00f6neminde oldu\u011fu gibi, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Akkuyu\u2019dan vazge\u00e7mesiyle sonu\u00e7lanabilir. 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc modern bir n\u00fckleer santral i\u00e7in 20-30 milyar dolar, zamanla geli\u015fecek teknolojilerin eklenen yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla (Finlandiya \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi \/2\/), az bile gelebilir. Kald\u0131 ki, 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc bir santraldan sa\u011flanabilecek elektrik, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin toplam elektrik gereksiniminin\u00a0 %10\u2019nu bile kar\u015f\u0131layam\u0131yor. \u00c7ok daha fazla say\u0131da santral yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ise ya h\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fct\u00e7ede \u00a010 y\u0131l boyunca toplam 100-200 milyar dolar ay\u0131rmas\u0131 ya da bu yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapacak \u015firketler bulmas\u0131 gerekiyor ki bunun da hi\u00e7 kolay olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f deneyimler \u00a0(tek bir reakt\u00f6r \u0131smarlanmas\u0131 durumunda bile) \u00a0g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Sinop n\u00fckleer santral projesi de etkilenir mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Rusya krizi ve g\u00fcneyimizdeki kaos s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece \u2018yap, i\u015flet modeliyle\u2019 Mitsubishi ve Areva\u2019n\u0131n Sinop\u2019ta birlikte %51 \u00a0ve bir T\u00fcrk \u015firketinin (E\u00dcA\u015e) de %49 hisseyle yapmay\u0131 planlad\u0131klar\u0131 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc n\u00fckleer santral i\u00e7in de bu \u015firketlerin yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya istekli olmayacaklar\u0131 ya da projeyi epey erteleyecekleri de kestirilebilir. Sinop NGS anla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bkz. \/4\/.<\/p>\n

Yenilenebilir enerjilerde durum ve sonu\u00e7?<\/strong><\/p>\n

N\u00fckleer santrallar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi kurulamazsa ve hatta kurulsalar bile, yenilenebilir enerjilerle elektrik \u00fcretimine h\u0131z verilmesi, enerji \u00fcretim yelpazesindeki bir bo\u015flu\u011fu dolduraca\u011f\u0131ndan, yerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.\u00a0 Ancak, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar enerjileri yak\u0131n gelecekte \u00e7ok art\u0131r\u0131lsa bile (bug\u00fcn toplam elektrik \u00fcretiminin % 3\u2019\u00fcnden de daha az), bunlardan sa\u011flanacak elektrik miktar\u0131n\u0131n, do\u011fal gaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc santrallar\u0131n \u00fcrettikleri elektrik miktar\u0131na ula\u015fmalar\u0131, ne yaz\u0131k ki, beklenemez. \u00d6rne\u011fin 500 MWe\u00a0<\/strong>\u2019l\u0131k bir k\u00f6m\u00fcr santral\u0131ndan al\u0131nan elektri\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek i\u00e7in kabaca 100 adetten fazla r\u00fczgar santral\u0131 gerekiyor ve bunlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k verimi ( kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131)\u00a0 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda (Almanya\u2019da ortalama olarak % 16), k\u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fcler % 60, n\u00fckleer santrallar % 75 verimlilikte).\u00a0Ayr\u0131ca yenilenebilir enerji santrallar\u0131 i\u00e7in elektrik \u015febekesinin de yenilenmesi gerekiyor\u00a0<\/strong>(Ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar i\u00e7in bkz \/2,5\/).\u00a0 G\u00fcne\u015fin geceleri ve r\u00fczgar\u0131n da her zaman bulunmamas\u0131, elektrik enerjisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda depolanamamas\u0131 nedenleriyle, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar enerjileri, taban enerji gereksinimini kar\u015f\u0131lamada yetersiz kalacaklar\u0131ndan (fabrikalar\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, kentlerin geceleri ayd\u0131nlat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi her an gereken elektri\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011finden) yine k\u00f6m\u00fcre ya da ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerden sa\u011flanabilecek do\u011fal gaza d\u00f6n\u00fclecektir. Bu ise bilindi\u011fi gibi artan CO2<\/strong>\u00a0sorunu ve k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma gerek\u00e7esiyle frenlenecektir.<\/p>\n

Gelecekte, sadece kendi n\u00fcfusumuz ve i\u00e7 pazar \u00a0i\u00e7in de\u011fil, d\u0131\u015f sat\u0131m mallar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131m\u0131 istenen \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in de daha fazla elektrik gerekecektir. Artan ve gitgide konforlu (ve savurgan!) ya\u015fayan n\u00fcfus i\u00e7in de gerekecek elektri\u011fin nas\u0131l sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131na?, se\u00e7enekler ortaya konularak, karar verilmesi ve bir an \u00f6nce i\u015fe ba\u015flan\u0131lmas\u0131 gere\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r \/2,5\/.<\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

(*) \u00a0Almanya\u2019daki gibi normal ko\u015fullarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir n\u00fckleer santralda bile, \u00a0bak\u0131m, onar\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, baz\u0131 ar\u0131zalar ve yenilenebilir kaynakl\u0131 elektri\u011fin \u015febekeye \u00f6ncelikle beslenmesi zorunlulu\u011fu nedeniyle, n\u00fckleer santrallar\u0131n zaman zaman durdurulmas\u0131 (by pass\u2019a al\u0131nmas\u0131) sonucu, bir n\u00fckleer santral y\u0131lda ortalama olarak ancak % 75 verimle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabiliyor. Rusya krizinin ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fiyle ilgili belirsizlik ve \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerdeki kaos nedenleriyle, ileride bu %75 verimin \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olur ve bu nedenle elektrik sat\u0131m\u0131ndan elde edilecek 58 milyar dolarl\u0131k gelir kestiriminin de \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.<\/p>\n

Y\u00fcksel Atakan, Dr.Y.M\u00fch., Almanya,\u00a0ybatakan@gmail.com<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

\/ 1\/ Akkuyu anla\u015fmas\u0131:\u00a0http:\/\/www.resmigazete.gov.tr\/eskiler\/2010\/10\/20101006-6.htm<\/a><\/p>\n

\/2\/ Akkuyu projesiyle ilgili daha \u00f6nceki ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in bkz: \u2018Radyasyon ve Sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u2019 kitab\u0131, Y.Atakan, Nobel Yay\u0131nlar\u0131, 2014\u00a0http:\/\/nobelyayin.com\/detay.asp?u=4025<\/a><\/p>\n

\/3\/ \u00d6rne\u011fin: CNN T\u00fcrk Her\u015fey program\u0131nda Kas\u0131m 2015 sonunda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar<\/p>\n

\/4\/ Sinop anla\u015fmas\u0131yla ilgili kanun Resmi Gazete 14.12.2014<\/p>\n

\/5\/ G\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczg\u00e2r, n\u00fckleer ve k\u00f6m\u00fcrden enerji \/ Elektrik \u00fcretiminde ger\u00e7ek sorunlar,<\/p>\n

Y.Atakan Bilim ve Gelecek dergisi Ekim 2011.<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Akkuyu\u2019da yap\u0131m\u0131na ba\u015flanan, herbiri 1200 MegaWatt (MW) elektriksel g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 4 reakt\u00f6rl\u00fc N\u00fckleer G\u00fc\u00e7 Santral\u0131n\u0131n (NGS) Rusya taraf\u0131ndan kurulmas\u0131 ve 60 y\u0131l i\u015fletilmesi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48789,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,43],"tags":[3019,1026,63,67,1009,25805,2698,165,71,21,25480,2973,15207,27823],"views":1226,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48788"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48790,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48788\/revisions\/48790"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}