{"id":48728,"date":"2016-01-05T13:30:23","date_gmt":"2016-01-05T10:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=48728"},"modified":"2016-01-05T13:30:23","modified_gmt":"2016-01-05T10:30:23","slug":"suudi-arabistan-irani-dusurmek-icin-petrolu-dibe-cekiyor-iddiasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/suudi-arabistan-irani-dusurmek-icin-petrolu-dibe-cekiyor-iddiasi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Suudi Arabistan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek \u0130\u00e7in Petrol\u00fc Dibe \u00c7ekiyor \u0130ddias\u0131…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

OPEC\u2019in iki devi Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran hatt\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan krizin, petrol \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, d\u00fcnya enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyebilir. Yak\u0131nda ambargo k\u0131skac\u0131ndan kurtulmaya haz\u0131rlanan \u0130ran\u2019a, rakipleri kolay kolay yer a\u00e7mayacak gibi\u2026<\/span>\u00a0Hatta kimilerine g\u00f6re S. Arabistan, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 e dibe \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kas\u0131tl\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya yeni y\u0131la \u0130ran-Suudi Arabistan kriziyle tedirgin bir \u201cmerhaba\u201d derken, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan gerginlik petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131nda\"suudi-arabistan-irani-dusurmek-icin-petrolu-dibe-cekiyor-iddiasi\"<\/a>n ilgilendiriyor. Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran, Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019nde (OPEC) de ezeli rakip pozisyonunda. Bu gerilimin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisine d\u00f6nmeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk gelmesi ayr\u0131ca dikkat \u00e7ekici. Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki m\u00fcttefikleri, d\u00fcnya petrol pastas\u0131ndan pay kaybetmemek i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi k\u0131smadan, petrol pompalama politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylece ba\u015fta ABD\u2019deki kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcreticileri olmak \u00fczere y\u00fcksek maliyetli petrol \u00fcreticilerini bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay yap\u0131lan OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 olduk\u00e7a gergin ge\u00e7erken, \u0130ran ve Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda giderek b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ihtilaf\u0131 da g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermi\u015fti. \u0130ran, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durdurmak i\u00e7in \u00fcyelere eylem \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmu\u015f, talepleri Suudi Arabistan taraf\u0131ndan geri \u00e7evrilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u0130K\u0130 BLOK ORTAYA \u00c7IKIYOR<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i Enerji Kul\u00fcb\u00fc \u0130cra Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mehmet \u00d6\u011f\u00fct\u00e7\u00fc, \u201c\u0130ran, Irak \u00fczerinde de h\u00e2kimiyetini kurdu. Basra\u2019dan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elinde. Irak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir araya gelmesi, Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 petrolde de \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck rakip ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. S. Arabistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol \u00fcretimi bug\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyon varil, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131nki ise 3 milyon.<\/p>\n

Fakat yak\u0131nda kalkacak olan ambargodan sonra bu h\u0131zla g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5, 6, 7 milyon varile y\u00fckselir. Irak\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 3 milyon varilin alt\u0131nda, fakat onlar\u0131n da hedefi bunu 10 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kartmak. Irak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 bir arada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz, yaln\u0131zca \u015eii-S\u00fcnni meselesi de\u011fil, petrolde de muazzam bir iki blok ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol h\u00fck\u00fcmranl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten ABD elinden ald\u0131. \u0130ran ve Irak da ortakla\u015fa hareket eder ve petrol \u00fcreten di\u011fer Suudi kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 gruplar\u0131 da yan\u0131na \u00e7ekerse, Suudi Arabistan petrol kral\u0131yken, bir anda lig d\u00fc\u015febilir\u201d yorumunu yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

PETROLDE EZEL\u0130 RAK\u0130P<\/strong><\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda patlak veren kriz, b\u00f6lge dinamikleriyle birlikte, petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyebilir. Fakat eski d\u00f6nemlerde oldu\u011fu gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131\u015f veya \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f hareketleri beklenmiyor. Bunun da ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni piyasadaki arz bollu\u011fu. B\u00f6lgede Yemen\u2019den Suriye\u2019ye d\u0131\u015f politika konular\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcredir z\u0131t d\u00fc\u015fen iki \u00fclke, petrolde de ezeli rakip konumunda. \u0130ran, Suudi Arabistan, Venezuela ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc petrol rezervine sahip. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Rusya\u2019dan sonra d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci do\u011falgaz rezervlerinin \u00fczerinde oturuyor.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan ise petrol \u00fcretimi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan OPEC\u2019in en \u00f6nemli \u00fcyesi konumunda. Petrol analistleri, Suudi-\u0130ran hik\u00e2yesinin petrol fiyatlar\u0131na bir miktar risk primi ekleyece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u201cBu olaya ra\u011fmen, petrol piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in fazla petrol stoklar\u0131 halen jeopolitik sorunlardan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun te\u015fkil ediyor\u201d yorumunu yap\u0131yor. Nitekim artan gerilimle beraber petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 3\u2019ler civar\u0131nda oldu. Brent tipi ham petrol\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l y\u00fczde 35 d\u00fc\u015ferken, y\u0131l\u0131 37.28dolar\/varil ile kapatt\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok analist, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l da benzer seviyede kalmas\u0131n\u0131, 20 ila 45 dolar aras\u0131nda inip \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

EN B\u00dcY\u00dcK\u00a0\u0130K\u0130 R\u0130SK<\/strong><\/p>\n

Riyad-Tahran hatt\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan krizin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ambargo k\u0131skac\u0131ndan kurtulup, ekonomisini canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcn sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7eken di\u011fer bir unsur. K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin de Riyad blokuna ge\u00e7mesiyle, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede izole olmaya devam edebilece\u011fi kaydedilirken, Bloomberg\u2019e konu\u015fan Londra merkezli dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi Cornerstone Global Associates\u2019in kurucusu Ghanem Nuseibeh, \u201c\u0130ran \u015fu an b\u00f6lgesel olarak \u0131ss\u0131z bir konumda. N\u00fckleer anla\u015fma ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n daha geni\u015f b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yeniden entegre olmay\u0131 \u00fcmit ederken, asl\u0131nda tam da tersini yapm\u0131\u015f oldular\u201d yorumunu yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Mehmet \u00d6\u011f\u00fct\u00e7\u00fc ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n tam ekonomik ili\u015fkilerini canland\u0131racakken bu ya\u015fananlar\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer yandan \u0130ran-Irak ittifak\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken \u00d6\u011f\u00fct\u00e7\u00fc, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015fuyor: \u201cBu i\u015f sadece Suudilerin diplomatik misyonunun yak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve arkas\u0131ndan diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin kesilmesi olay\u0131 de\u011fil. Zaten uzun zamand\u0131r pi\u015fiyordu. Arkas\u0131nda \u015eii-S\u00fcnni \u00e7eki\u015fmesi yat\u0131yor. Zira Irak ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 bir arada d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrseniz, yaln\u0131zca \u015eii-S\u00fcnni meselesi de\u011fil, petrolde de muazzam bir iki blok ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Jeopolitik blokla\u015fman\u0131n petrole yans\u0131mas\u0131 ise \u015f\u00f6yle olabilir: Irak ve \u0130ran ittifak halinde petrol \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rsa,Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla ge\u00e7eceklerdir. ABD enerjide kendi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kazand\u0131k\u00e7a, Suudi Arabistan\u2019a verdi\u011fi ko\u015fulsuz destek de yava\u015f yava\u015f azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ortado\u011fu\u2019da S. Arabistan, \u0130ran y\u00fcz\u00fcnden kendini k\u0131skaca al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f hissediyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hem K\u00f6rfez, hem kendilerine ciddi tehdit te\u015fkil etti\u011fine inan\u0131yorlar. Bunun yans\u0131mas\u0131 ne olur? Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik patlamalar, arzdaki bolluktan dolay\u0131 art\u0131k petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 fazla etkilemiyor. Zaten bakarsan\u0131z y\u00fczde 3-5 artt\u0131. Eskiden olsa bir anda y\u00fczde 70 f\u0131rlard\u0131. Burada iki \u00f6nemli risk var. Birincisi \u00fcretime y\u00f6nelik tehditler, ikincisi de H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n

Bir taraf\u0131nda \u0130ran, bir taraf\u0131nda Umman var. D\u00fcnyada tankerle yap\u0131lan petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 30\u2019u H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7iyor. Orada ikmalin engellenmesi durumu ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, bu petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 patlat\u0131r. En b\u00fcy\u00fck jeopolitik risk o. Di\u011fer risk ise Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n do\u011fudaki petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 riski. Bu fiziki veya siber sald\u0131r\u0131 da olabilir. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131, do\u011fudaki \u015eii az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Haberin Devam\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/a>>>><\/p>\n

Kaynak: H\u00fcrriyet<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. OPEC\u2019in iki devi Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran hatt\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan krizin, petrol \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen bir sava\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi, d\u00fcnya enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyebilir. Yak\u0131nda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[63,67,1009,2698,165,59,79,2388,2522],"views":842,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48728"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48728"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48730,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48728\/revisions\/48730"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}