{"id":48725,"date":"2016-01-05T13:23:27","date_gmt":"2016-01-05T10:23:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=48725"},"modified":"2016-01-05T13:23:43","modified_gmt":"2016-01-05T10:23:43","slug":"yorum-petrol-fiyatlari-neden-dusuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/yorum-petrol-fiyatlari-neden-dusuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Yorum: Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131 Neden D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

De\u011feri artan veya azalan her emtia\u00a0 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131, fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi nedeniyle ortaya kazanan ve kaybedenler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Kaybeden ve kazananlar\u0131n kimler oldu\u011funu anlamak, de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n nedenlerini g\u00f6rmemize yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Peki, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kim kazand\u0131, kim kaybetti?<\/p>\n

– T\u00fcketici kazand\u0131. \u00dcretici Kaybetti.\"yorum-petrol-fiyatlari-neden-dusuyor\"
\n– Petrol ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkeler kaybetti. Petrol ithal edenler kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n

– ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00dclkeleri, \u00c7in ve Japonya kazand\u0131. Rusya ve OPEC kaybetti (Rusya OPEC \u00fcyesi de\u011fildir).
\n– Sabit kur uygulayan petrol \u00fcreticileri (ba\u015fta Suudi Arabistan) kaybetti. Dalgal\u0131 kur uygulayan petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkeler (Rusya, Meksika gibi) daha az kaybetti.
\n– Daha az karbon sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 yapan yeni teknolojiler \u015fimdilik kaybetti.
\n– Motor g\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00fcksek araba sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 kazanm\u0131\u015f, elektrikli ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck hacimli motora sahip araba \u00fcreticileri \u015fimdilik kaybetmi\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.
\n– Deflasyon kazand\u0131.
\n– Vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alanlar kazand\u0131. Uzun pozisyon alanlar kaybetti.
\n– T\u00fcrkiye, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle ilk bak\u0131\u015fta kazanan tarafta g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelere yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihracat\u0131n bu pazarlar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki azalma nedeniyle gerilemesi neticesinde kaybedecekleri de var. Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeden kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 daha \u00e7ok olur.<\/p>\n

Fiyat hareketleri sonras\u0131nda kaybeden ve kazananlar\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 temelde 2 fakt\u00f6r belirler:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1- Siyaset:<\/strong>Rusya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7e d\u00f6n\u00fck politikadan vazge\u00e7erek, d\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6n\u00fck politikaya ge\u00e7mesi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Avrupa\u2019ya verdi\u011fi gazda kesintiye gitme tehdidi ile birlikte kendi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna, Suriye gibi \u00fclkelerde askeri ve siyasal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bat\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek Rusya\u2019y\u0131 cezaland\u0131rma politikas\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablodan da g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere petrol ve do\u011fal gaz gelirleri Rusya\u2019n\u0131n vergi gelirlerinin %50.2\u2019isini olu\u015fturuyor.
\n2- Ekonomi (arz ve talep):\u00a0<\/strong>Ekonomik anlamda konuya arz\/talep a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakarsak;<\/p>\n

Arz taraf\u0131nda:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

1- \u0130ran \u00fczerindeki yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla beraber, bug\u00fcn olmasa bile \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131na dahil beklenti
\n2- D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan Amerika\u2019n\u0131n kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi nedeniyle petrol ithal eder \u00fclke durumundan, petrol ihra\u00e7 eder \u00fclke konumuna ge\u00e7ecek\/ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131
\n3- OPEC\u2019in arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131na gitmemesi<\/p>\n

Talep taraf\u0131nda<\/em><\/strong>:<\/p>\n

1- Yava\u015flayan k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in\u2019den gelen talepteki azalma ile birlikte sadece petrolde de\u011fil, hemen hemen t\u00fcm ham madde fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme
\n2- Temiz ve yenilenebilir alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f
\n3- \u0130lerleyen teknoloji nedeniyle enerji t\u00fcketiminde sa\u011flanan verimlilik. Hem konut hem de sanayide enerji verimlili\u011fi, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck t\u00fcketimli ara\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131..<\/p>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, kolayc\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla yukar\u0131daki fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011flanarak a\u00e7\u0131klanabilir. Veya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n neden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sorusunun cevab\u0131 ba\u015fka sorularda da aranabilir. Mesela, konu e\u011fer arz\/talep ise; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son 8 y\u0131ld\u0131r konut sto\u011funda ve arz\u0131nda talebin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen konut fiyatlar\u0131 neden petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor, aksine y\u00fckseliyor? Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 1990-2014 d\u00f6neminde 40 dolardan 130 neden dolara y\u00fckseldi?\u2026<\/p>\n

Siyaset ile ekonominin arz ve talep yasas\u0131na dayanarak petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n neden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne bir cevap \u00fcretilme imkan\u0131 varsa da, baz\u0131 sorular\u0131n tek ve sabit bir yan\u0131t\u0131 olmuyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cTarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibarettir\u201d teziyle son fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc anlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6nemler itibariyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fime bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda son 50 y\u0131lda, ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z son fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc hari\u00e7, 4 ana d\u00f6nem\/trend dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

– Temmuz 1973 \u2013 Nisan 1980:<\/strong>7 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6nemi (19 USD\u2019den 116 USD\u2019ye)
\n– Nisan 1980 \u2013 Ocak 1999:<\/strong>19,5 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6nemi (116 USD\u2019den 16 USD\u2019ye)
\n– Ocak 1999 \u2013 Temmuz 2008:<\/strong>9,5 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f d\u00f6nemi (16 USD\u2019den 145 USD\u2019ye)
\n– Temmuz 2008 \u2013 Eyl\u00fcl 2008:<\/strong>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tarihi zirvesini Nymex petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in 145 USD ile Temmuz 2008\u2019de yapm\u0131\u015f, 15\/09\/2008 Lehman Brothers krizi sonras\u0131nda ise 46 USD ile Aral\u0131k 2008\u2019de dip yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Petrol fiyat\u0131nda 5 ayl\u0131k bir d\u00f6nemde, 145 USD\u2019den 46 USD\u2019ye sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hareketi ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni nedir? D\u00fcnyada ne petrol talebi, ne de petrol \u00fcretimi siyaset veya arz\/talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 5 ay kadar k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini tek ba\u015f\u0131na izah edemez.<\/p>\n

Ve son olarak cevab\u0131 arad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n Haziran 2014\u2019deki 105 dolarl\u0131k seviyesinden, 1,5 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde bug\u00fcnk\u00fc 37 USD\u2019ye gerilemesinin nedenleri.<\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki soruya tekrar d\u00f6nersek; \u201cpetrol fiyatlar\u0131 neden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Petrolde 3 fiyat mevcuttur: Spot fiyat, vadeli fiyat ve OTC (tezgah \u00fcst\u00fc) fiyat.<\/p>\n

Spot fiyat<\/strong>\u00a0(anl\u0131k \u00f6deme ve teslim i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli fiyat, borsa fiyat\u0131) her g\u00fcn takip etti\u011fimiz, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc sorgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z fiyat.\u00a0Vadeli fiyat<\/strong>, ileri bir tarihte olu\u015facak fiyat ki, bu fiyat \u2018genellikle\u2019 spot fiyat\u0131n faizle ileriye do\u011fru g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fclmesiyle belirlenir.\u00a0OTC fiyat\u0131<\/strong>\u00a0organize olmayan, \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmemi\u015f piyasalarda olu\u015fan fiyat.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesinde arz\/talep ile siyaset d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki 3 \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

1- Libya, Kuzey Irak ve Suriye gibi \u00fclkelerde ya\u015fanan i\u00e7 sava\u015f nedeniyle, bu b\u00f6lgelerdeki petrol \u00fcretiminin kontrols\u00fcz kalmas\u0131. Kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalan petrol\u00fcn bu b\u00f6lgelerdeki sava\u015flar\u0131n finansman\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa fiyat\u0131na bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n, spot fiyatlar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f\u0131.\u00a0OTC piyasada s\u00fcrekli gerileyen fiyat\u0131n ve artan sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n spot fiyat\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmesi<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0sonucu, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmesi
\n2- Vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131na giren petrol\u00fcn spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131lmas\u0131 (shortlanmas\u0131). Normal ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda vadeli fiyat, spot fiyattan t\u00fcrer. Ancak petrolde son d\u00f6nemde farkl\u0131 bir e\u011filim s\u00f6z konusu.\u00a0Spot fiyat\u0131n vadeli fiyattan<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0t\u00fcremesi. Ve bunun sonucunda d\u00fc\u015fen vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n spot fiyat\u0131 daha da a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa \u00e7ekmesi (T\u0131pk\u0131 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 Lehman Brothers krizi sonras\u0131 ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn nedeninin vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmas\u0131 gibi).
\n3- Teknik analiz taraf\u0131ndan bir bak\u0131\u015fla; hi\u00e7bir varl\u0131k s\u00fcrekli bir \u015fekilde uzun s\u00fcre ayn\u0131 ve tek bir trendde y\u00fckselmez. Petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bir anlamda \u00e7ok\u00a0sert bir teknik d\u00fczeltmedir<\/em><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Lehman Brothers ve sonras\u0131ndaki 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel krizinin en \u00f6nemli nedenlerinden biri t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n GSMH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n 11 kat\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Kriz sonras\u0131nda al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerle, iki y\u0131l s\u00fcreyle kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nan ve gerileyen t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler pazar\u0131, ne yaz\u0131k ki FED\u2019in s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonunda k\u00fcresel GSMH\u2019n\u0131n 20 kat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015ft\u0131. Bir anlamda bug\u00fcn 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan daha riskli bir seviyedeyiz. Vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerin dayanak varl\u0131klar\u0131n onlarca y\u0131ll\u0131k i\u015flem hacimlerine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 hem fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini, hem de riskleri artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Fiyat gerilemesine neden olan yukar\u0131daki fakt\u00f6rlerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde de varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak, petrolde 60 USD\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki fiyatlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrede yeninden g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. OECD \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de e\u011fer do\u011fru politikalar uygulayabilirse; %6.2\u2019lik \u2018petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ithalat\u0131\/GSMH\u2019 oran\u0131yla d\u00fcnyada ilk s\u0131rada yer almas\u0131n\u0131n, d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da avantaja \u00e7evirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ilk s\u0131ralarda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u00f6nemli bir \u015fansa sahip olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek yanl\u0131\u015f olmaz.<\/p>\n

Son d\u00f6nemde fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fenin sadece petrol fiyatlar\u0131 de\u011fil; kahveden, canl\u0131 hayvan fiyatlar\u0131na kadar hemen hemen t\u00fcm emtia\u00a0fiyatlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtmekte de ayr\u0131ca fayda var.<\/p>\n

\"d11\"<\/p>\n

\"d22\"<\/p>\n

\"d33\"<\/p>\n

\"d44\"<\/p>\n

Doruk \u00d6zcan<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. De\u011feri artan veya azalan her emtia\u00a0 ve yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131, fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi nedeniyle ortaya kazanan ve kaybedenler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. Kaybeden ve kazananlar\u0131n kimler oldu\u011funu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[1198,63,67,1009,2698,165,8811,2041,1377,59,79,347,8958,2388,2522,1376],"views":873,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48725"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48725"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48727,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48725\/revisions\/48727"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}