{"id":48501,"date":"2015-12-30T00:56:44","date_gmt":"2015-12-29T21:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=48501"},"modified":"2015-12-30T00:56:44","modified_gmt":"2015-12-29T21:56:44","slug":"petrol-20-dolarin-altina-iner-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petrol-20-dolarin-altina-iner-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petrol 20 Dolar\u0131n Alt\u0131na \u0130ner mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamaya devam etmesi \u00fcreticiyi \u00fczerken, konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc canland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ve t\u00fcketiciyi sevindiriyor. Uzmanlar 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda varil fiyat\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyorlar.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki piyasa pay\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctme rekabeti varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131y\"petrol-20-dolarin-altina-iner-mi\"<\/a>or. OPEC, \u00fcretim maliyetinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu \u00fclkeleri saf d\u0131\u015f\u0131 edebilmek i\u00e7in piyasay\u0131 ham petrole bo\u011fuyor. Gidi\u015fat\u0131n sonunu\u00a0kimse kestiremiyor. Goldman Sachs analistleri 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda WTI t\u00fcr\u00fc Amerikan petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131lanarak 20 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesinin s\u00fcrpriz olmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeler.<\/p>\n

K\u0131\u015f mevsiminin \u0131l\u0131k ge\u00e7mesi, gen\u00e7 sanayi \u00fclkelerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve \u0130ran yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kalkacak olmas\u0131 stoklar\u0131n daha artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak. Petrol ticaretinin b\u00fcy\u00fck akt\u00f6rleri aras\u0131nda yer alan Amerikan bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs\u2019\u0131n tahminleri bu y\u00f6nde. Bankan\u0131n analistleri tahminlerinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015flard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Brent t\u00fcr\u00fc Kuzey Denizi petrol\u00fc \u015fu g\u00fcnlerde 37 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Varil fiyat\u0131 son kez 11,5 y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu rakam\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalar\u0131nda ham petrol 100 dolardan sat\u0131l\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de \u00fcretimin d<\/b>\u00fc\u015fmesi ucuzlamay\u0131<\/b>\u00a0\u00f6nler mi?<\/b><\/p>\n

Di\u011fer analiz uzmanlar\u0131 fiyat tahminlerinde Goldman Sachs kadar ileri gitmiyor ve 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 fiyat ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n 57 dolar civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyorlar. Reuters haber ajans\u0131n\u0131n anketine kat\u0131lan, Deutsche Bank\u2019\u0131n stratejik ara\u015ft\u0131rma uzman\u0131 Stefan Kreuzkamp ABD\u2019deki kaya petrol\u00fc \u00fcretiminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi nedeniyle varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. Brent t\u00fcr\u00fc petrol\u00fcn 2016 sonunda 63 dolardan al\u0131c\u0131 bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Commerzbank uzmanlar\u0131 da ayn\u0131 gerek\u00e7eyi \u00f6ne s\u00fcr\u00fcyorlar. ABD\u2019deki aktif petrol kuyular\u0131n\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 2014 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u00fc\u00e7te iki oran\u0131nda azald\u0131. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n daha fazla petrol ihra\u00e7 edebilecek olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen arz\u0131n san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar artmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten piyasa uzmanlar\u0131 arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyadaki faal petrol kuyular\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kapatt\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydediyorlar.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) ise arz ve fiyatla ilgili tahminlere kat\u0131lm\u0131yor. Ajans\u0131n uzmanlar\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda OPEC \u00fclkelerinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol \u00fcretimini 1,6 milyon fazlas\u0131yla 31,3 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeler. OPEC karteline \u00fcye olmayan \u00fclkelerdeki g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimin ise 600 bin varil azalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu da ABD\u2019deki petrol \u00fcretiminin gerilemesine ra\u011fmen arz\u0131n en az\u0131ndan 2016 sonuna kadar talebin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

OPEC Amerikan petrol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6z\u00fcne kestirdi<\/b><\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel arz fazlas\u0131nda Kuzey Amerika\u2019daki kaya petrol\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n rekor d\u00fczeye t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli rol oynuyor. Hidrolik k\u0131rma metoduyla ve y\u00fcksek maliyetle \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat\u0131 kald\u0131rm\u0131yor. Suudi Arabistan ve di\u011fer baz\u0131 OPEC \u00fclkeleri ise \u00f6nceki y\u0131llardakinin aksine arz\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp fiyat istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flamak yerine \u00fcretimi artt\u0131r\u0131yor, piyasa pay\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctmek i\u00e7in m\u00fc\u015fterisine tenzilat uyguluyor ve \u00fcretim maliyeti y\u00fcksek olan rakiplerini piyasadan kovmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. OPEC aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda bu uygulamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini ve d\u00fcnya piyasas\u0131nda petrol bollu\u011fu yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131 di\u011fer enerji hammaddelerini de otomatik olarak etkiliyor. K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn tonu, son 12 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inerek 44 dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Elektri\u011fin megavat\/saati ise elektrik borsas\u0131nda 27,85 Euro ile tabana oturdu.<\/p>\n

Alan memnun, satan keyifsiz<\/b><\/p>\n

Fiyatlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesi hammadde \u015firketlerini zor duruma soktu. Son bir bu\u00e7uk y\u0131lda petrol \u00e7\u0131karan \u015firketlerin borsa de\u011feri bir trilyon dolar azald\u0131. Bu mebla\u011f Hollanda\u2019n\u0131n milli gelirini ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n 30 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketinin toplam borsa de\u011ferini a\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Enerji giderlerinin azalmas\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyonu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik enflasyon hedefini yakalayabilmek i\u00e7in piyasay\u0131 ucuz paraya bo\u011fuyor. Aksi takdirde defl\u00e2syona d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesinde ve d\u00fc\u015fen fiyatlarla birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131m planlar\u0131n\u0131n da rafa kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley\u2019in ba\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Elga Bartsch petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamas\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 zamanda konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc te\u015fvik program\u0131 yerine ge\u00e7ti\u011fini de hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu sayede i\u015fletmelerin yat\u0131r\u0131m portf\u00f6y\u00fcn\u00fcn \u015fi\u015fti\u011fini ve t\u00fcketicinin eline de daha fazla para ge\u00e7ti\u011fini belirten Bartsch 2016\u2019da durumun de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde. Alman madeni ya\u011fc\u0131lar birli\u011fi ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christian K\u00fcchen bu y\u0131l Almanya\u2019daki t\u00fcketicinin cebinde 13,5 milyar Euro artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Dizel akaryak\u0131t fiyat\u0131n\u0131n yeniden bir Euro\u2019nun alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 13,5 milyara yeni milyarlar\u0131n eklenece\u011finin habercisi say\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Petrol\u00fcn ucuzlamaya devam etmesi \u00fcreticiyi \u00fczerken, konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc canland\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri ve t\u00fcketiciyi sevindiriyor. Uzmanlar 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda varil fiyat\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyorlar. Petrol […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48502,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[63,67,1009,2698,165,5422,59,79,347,2388,20675,887,2522,1022],"views":938,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48501"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48501"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48501\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48503,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48501\/revisions\/48503"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48502"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}