{"id":47628,"date":"2015-12-08T23:10:41","date_gmt":"2015-12-08T20:10:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=47628"},"modified":"2015-12-08T23:10:41","modified_gmt":"2015-12-08T20:10:41","slug":"avrupa-imar-ve-kalkinma-bankasi-rusya-dogalgazi-kesmez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/avrupa-imar-ve-kalkinma-bankasi-rusya-dogalgazi-kesmez\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Avrupa \u0130mar ve Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131: \u201cRusya Do\u011falgaz\u0131 Kesmez…\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

EBRD\u2019ye g\u00f6re Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 ve tam uygulamas\u0131 halinde T\u00fcrk ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 0.3 ve 0.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olabilir.\"avrupa-imar-ve-kalkinma-bankasi-rusya-dogalgazi-kesmez\"<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Avrupa \u0130mar ve\u00a0Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD)\u2019na g\u00f6re, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olur ve tam uygulan\u0131rsa 2016 itibar\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 0.3 ila y\u00fczde 0.7 puan azaltabilir. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n Rusya \u00fczerindeki etkisinin ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olma ihtimali bulundu\u011funu belirten EBRD, vanalar\u0131 kapamas\u0131n\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 negatif olarak etkileyebilece\u011fini de bildirdi. EBRD, \u201cDo\u011falgaz arz\u0131nda 2016\u2019da, \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir kesinti, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat ve GSYH\u2019s\u0131na zarar verecektir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

EBRD T\u00dcRK-RUS GER\u0130L\u0130M\u0130N\u0130 DE\u011eERLEND\u0130RD\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

EBRD uzmanlar\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 ilan etti\u011fi ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n her iki \u00fclke i\u00e7in yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 rakamsal olarak hesaplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

EBRD\u2019den yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re Rusya\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik ekonomik yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olur ve tam uygulan\u0131rsa 2016 itibar\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki GSYH art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.3 ila y\u00fczde 0.7 puan azalmas\u0131na neden olabilecek. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n Rusya \u00fczerindeki etkisinin ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olma ihtimali bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc turizmle ilgili ve y\u0131l ortas\u0131nda g\u00fcndeme gelecek.<\/p>\n

Uzmanlar yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n halihaz\u0131rdaki taahh\u00fct i\u015flerinin etkilememesine dikkat ettiklerini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

EBRD uzmanlar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin Rusya ile birka\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck kanaldan ba\u011flant\u0131 kurdu\u011funu belirtirken bunlar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetledi:<\/p>\n

1. Rusya T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ana enerji tedarik\u00e7isi. T\u00fcrkiye do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketiminin y\u00fczde 98.8\u2019ini ithal ediyor ve Rusya bunun y\u00fczde 56\u2019s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n

2. Rusya T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in 7\u2019nci b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya ihracat\u0131, toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.8\u2019i, GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n ise y\u00fczde 0.7\u2019si.<\/p>\n

3. T\u00fcrk turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Rusya piyasas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u011flara sahip. Rus turistler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 3 milyar dolar harc\u0131yor, bu T\u00fcrkiye GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.3 ve 0.4\u2019\u00fc dolay\u0131nda. K\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda dahi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye Rusya\u2019dan ayda 100 binin alt\u0131nda turist geliyor.<\/p>\n

4. T\u00fcrk m\u00fcteahhitler \u00f6zellikle in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde Rusya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck operasyonlara sahip. Rusya\u2019da imzalanan taahh\u00fctler 11 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda ve T\u00fcrk GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1.2-1.4\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Taahh\u00fct s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri 3-5 y\u0131l. \u0130n\u015faat\u00e7\u0131lar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde T\u00fcrk i\u015f\u00e7i \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019da \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan 87 bin T\u00fcrk\u2019ten 55 bini in\u015faat \u015firketlerinde.<\/p>\n

5. Rusya T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki 4\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 730 milyon dolar ve T\u00fcrkiye GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.1\u2019i d\u00fczeyinde. Burada y\u0131lda 400-450 milyon dolar oldu\u011fu san\u0131lan Rus vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gayr\u0131 menkul ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 hari\u00e7. Ayr\u0131ca Rusya\u2019n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 birka\u00e7 mega proje de var. Akkuyu n\u00fckleer santrali halen in\u015faat halinde, T\u00fcrk ak\u0131m\u0131 boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n planlamas\u0131 da ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 a\u015famas\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

6. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ba\u011flant\u0131lar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n

ENERJ\u0130 ARZINDA KES\u0130NT\u0130 Y\u00dcKSEK ORANDA \u0130HT\u0130MAL DI\u015eI<\/strong><\/p>\n

EBRD ekonomik ba\u011flarda k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmenin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin GSYH\u2019s\u0131 \u00fczerinde ihmal edilmeyecek oranda, ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck de olmayan sonu\u00e7lara yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerindeki etkilerin temelde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck turizm ve g\u0131da ihracat gelirleriyle T\u00fcrk m\u00fcteahhitlerin Rusya\u2019daki yeni i\u015flerin azalmas\u0131 \u015feklinde olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. EBRD \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n

\u201cBu a\u015famada, enerji arz\u0131nda bir kesinti y\u00fcksek oranda ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ekonomiye maliyeti; halihaz\u0131rda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan m\u00fcteahhit ve i\u015f\u00e7ilerin yapt\u0131r\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 ve etkilenen ihracat\u00e7\u0131 ve m\u00fcteahhitlerin h\u0131zla mal ve hizmetleri i\u00e7in alternatif piyasalar bulmas\u0131 \u015fart\u0131yla tahminlerin alt ucunda olacak.<\/p>\n

Ancak yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00fclke risk primi ve fonlama maliyetini y\u00fckseltebilecek, beklenenden daha geni\u015f bir etkiye yol a\u00e7abilecek daha da art\u0131\u015f\u0131 durumu g\u00f6zard\u0131 edilemez.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerindeki makroekonomik etki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 olacakken, Rusya ile yak\u0131n ba\u011flar\u0131 bulunan tek tek \u015firketler \u00fczerindeki etkinin daha fazla olmas\u0131 ihtimali var\u2026<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar Rusya\u2019da enflasyon ve ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. T\u00fcrkiye Rusya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci sebze ve meyve kayna\u011f\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den g\u0131da ithalat\u0131na yasak, etkilenen \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ortalama y\u00fczde 25 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na neden olabilir, bu da 2016 genel enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 0.1 \u2013 0.2 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye d\u0131\u015far\u0131 seyahat eden Rus turistler i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli destinasyon. Seyahat yasa\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7 turizmi art\u0131rabilse de var olan kapasite darbo\u011faz\u0131 fiyatlarda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015fa yola\u00e7abilir. Bundan dolay\u0131 seyahat yasa\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 olursa turizm hizmet fiyatlar\u0131 gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 25 artabilir, bu da enflasyona 2016\u2019da y\u00fczde 0.5 ek art\u0131\u015f getirebilir.<\/p>\n

Hali haz\u0131rdaki yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n Rusya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019s\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olma ihtimali var. G\u0131dada i\u00e7 \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve i\u00e7 turizmden daha y\u00fcksek gelir sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n GSYH \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede baz\u0131 olumlu etkileri olabilir.<\/p>\n

Ancak hem g\u0131da \u00fcretimi hem de i\u00e7 turizmin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kapasitesi, elde edilecek bir yarar\u0131n; g\u0131da ithal fiyatlar\u0131 artarken g\u0131da i\u015fleme sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00fcretim maliyeti art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ikinci olarak g\u0131da ve turizm hizmetlerinin giderek daha pahal\u0131 hale gelmesi nedeniyle reel harcanabilir gelirde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften dolay\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde telafi edilece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n

Durum, enerji ihrac\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi noktas\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131rsa bunun Rusya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 negatif olarak etkileme ihtimali var. T\u00fcrkiye 8.3 milyar dolarl\u0131k hacimle (Rusya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0.6\u2019s\u0131) Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n ikinci en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat pazar\u0131, Gazprom gelirlerinin y\u00fczde 18.8\u2019ini sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu arzda 2016\u2019da, \u015fu a\u015famada olduk\u00e7a ihtimal d\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir kesinti, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat ve GSYH\u2019s\u0131na zarar verecektir.<\/p>\n

Yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n T\u00fcrk in\u015faat m\u00fcteahhitlerinin \u015fu andaki i\u015fleri d\u00e2hil geni\u015fletilmesi de Rusya\u2019da yat\u0131r\u0131m ve GSYH\u2019y\u0131 azaltabilecektir. T\u00fcrk \u015firketleri \u015fu anda, 2018 futbol D\u00fcnya Kupas\u0131 i\u00e7in stadyum ve havaalanlar\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fas\u0131 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck projelere dahil. Yukar\u0131da belirtildi\u011fi gibi var olan \u00f6nlemler dikkatle se\u00e7ilmi\u015f ve bunlar\u0131 kesintiye u\u011fratmayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. EBRD\u2019ye g\u00f6re Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 ve tam uygulamas\u0131 halinde T\u00fcrk ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 0.3 ve 0.7 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme olabilir. Avrupa \u0130mar ve\u00a0Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 (EBRD)\u2019na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47629,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53],"tags":[1258,27319,92,226,19761,2677,1259,63,1238,67,1009,2698,165,18686,27318,1772],"views":807,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47628"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47628"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47630,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47628\/revisions\/47630"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}