{"id":47577,"date":"2015-12-07T14:27:19","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T11:27:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=47577"},"modified":"2015-12-07T14:27:19","modified_gmt":"2015-12-07T11:27:19","slug":"paristeki-iklim-muzakerelerinde-turkiyeyi-ne-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/paristeki-iklim-muzakerelerinde-turkiyeyi-ne-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Paris\u2019teki \u0130klim M\u00fczakerelerinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi Ne Bekliyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ne taahh\u00fct ediyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye iklim politikas\u0131n\u0131 en ba\u015f\u0131nda beri geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle k\u0131yaslanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi arg\u00fcman\u0131 \u00fczerine kurdu. Burada hakl\u0131l\u0131k pay\u0131 var. T\u00fcrkiye’nin sera gaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel emisyonlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,94’\u00fcne\"paristeki-iklim-muzakerelerinde-turkiyeyi-ne-bekliyor\"<\/a> denk geliyordu. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen emisyonlarda ise 6,04 ton ile d\u00fcnya ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda, 182 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda 81. s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu verileri baz alan T\u00fcrkiye, net bir azalt\u0131m hedefi yerine art\u0131\u015ftan azalt\u0131m hedefi belirledi. 1990-2013 aras\u0131nda emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 %110 oran\u0131nda art\u0131ran T\u00fcrkiye, emisyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini, bununla beraber 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131, herhangi bir iklim politikas\u0131 uygulamayaca\u011f\u0131 referans senaryoya k\u0131yasla %21 oran\u0131nda azaltabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn terc\u00fcmesi \u015f\u00f6yle: T\u00fcrkiye herhangi bir iklim politikas\u0131 uygulamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda seragaz\u0131 emisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 15 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde bug\u00fcnk\u00fc de\u011ferinin 2,5 kat\u0131na, 1 milyar 175 milyon tona \u00e7\u0131karacak. Bunu yaparken de, emisyon art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 ikiye katlayacak. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Paris i\u00e7in verdi\u011fi taahh\u00fct ise emisyon miktar\u0131n\u0131 929 milyon tonda s\u0131n\u0131rlamak. Bu senaryoda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen emisyon rakam\u0131 11 tona (n\u00fcfus 2030\u2019da 86 milyonu bulursa ) yakla\u015facak. Bunu yaparsak, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen emisyonda Japonya, Almanya ve \u0130ngiltere gibi \u00fclkelerin, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc AB ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n bile \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131z. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi pazarl\u0131k masas\u0131nda zorlayan rakamlardan birisi bu.<\/p>\n

Grafik 1: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Paris taahh\u00fct\u00fc ve WWF-T\u00fcrkiye-\u0130PM senaryosu<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"01\"<\/a><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye yaln\u0131z kalabilir<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin ulusal katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomileriyle k\u0131yaslay\u0131nca, ekonomimizin gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 yakalamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ve sanayi \u00fcretiminin lokomotifi haline gelen \u00c7in, \u201cki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na\u201d g\u00f6stergelerde T\u00fcrkiye’ye benzer gelir, enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve karbon emisyon rakamlar\u0131na sahip. \u00c7in, ulusal katk\u0131 beyan\u0131nda emisyon art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, emisyonlar\u0131n 2030 y\u0131l\u0131ndan \u00f6nce zirve de\u011ferine ula\u015f\u0131p a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru y\u00f6nelece\u011fini belirtti. Ba\u015fka bir geli\u015fen \u00fclke Meksika ile ekonomisi neredeyse tamamen k\u00f6m\u00fcre ba\u011fl\u0131 olan G\u00fcney Afrika da 2030’a kadar emisyonlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini ba\u015flatacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koydu. Meksika hem milli gelir hem de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen emisyon miktar\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ile hemen hemen ayn\u0131 durumda ama 2030 y\u0131l\u0131 taahh\u00fcd\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den daha iddial\u0131.<\/p>\n

Grafik 2: T\u00fcrkiye ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen emisyon miktar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131llara g\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

\"02\"<\/a><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya \u2018s\u0131cak hava\u2019da bulu\u015ftu<\/strong><\/p>\n

Melbourne \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin pazarl\u0131k masas\u0131nda i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131raca\u011fa benziyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, yapabilece\u011finden az taahh\u00fctte bulunan \u00fclkeler de\u015fifre ediliyor ve \u00fclkelerin indiriyormu\u015f gibi yap\u0131p asl\u0131nda artt\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 emisyonlar da \u201cs\u0131cak hava\u201d diye adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Avustralya\u2019daki \u00fcniversitesinin son \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2030 hedefinin ola\u011fan durum (referans) senaryosunun \u00fczerinde ve 506 milyon ton s\u0131cak havaya sahip oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. T\u00fcrkiye, alabilece\u011fi hedefi almayan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ikincisi de denebilir. Birincilik koltu\u011funda ise 533 milyon tonla Rusya yer al\u0131yor. S\u0131cak hava meselesi \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de yer almak istedi\u011fi emisyon ticareti mekanizmas\u0131, Kyoto d\u00f6neminde ortada fazla s\u0131cak hava olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00dclke hedefleri ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmazsa karbon hisselerinin fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor ve emisyon ticareti i\u015flemiyor.<\/p>\n

\"03\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cT\u00fcrkiye ge\u00e7 kal\u0131rsa eksi b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

WWF-T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130stanbul Politikalar Merkezi’nin, Bilkent \u00dcniversitesi’nden Prof. Dr. Erin\u00e7 Yeldan ve ODT\u00dc’den Do\u00e7. Dr. Ebru Voyvoda ile beraber ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi analize g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye’nin 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda emisyonlar\u0131, BM’ye sunulmu\u015f referans senaryonun %47, emisyon azalt\u0131m senaryosunun ise %33 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Enerji verimlili\u011fi ile yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na \u00f6ncelik verilmesi ve karbon vergisi, bunu ba\u015farabilmek i\u00e7in ilk akla gelen ara\u00e7lar. B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn maliyeti y\u00fcksek de\u011fil. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131 el ele yol alabilir. Emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 program\u0131n\u0131 uygulama koymada gecikti\u011fimiz takdirde ise maliyetler olduk\u00e7a y\u00fckselebilir, eksi b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olablir.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin hedefleri, ne AB hedefleriyle, ne de di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomileriyle uyumlu. Bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni, elektrik \u00fcretiminde k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oranda artmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren enerji politikalar\u0131. Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’ndan \u00fcst d\u00fczey temsilciler yeni iklim anla\u015fmas\u0131 devreye girmeden k\u00f6m\u00fcr yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tamamlamam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini bo\u015funa tekrarlam\u0131yorlar. T\u00fcrkiye emisyon konusundaki b\u00fct\u00fcn sorumlulu\u011fu elektrik \u00fcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u0131km\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Enerji verimlili\u011finin nas\u0131l geli\u015ftirilece\u011fi, sanayide nas\u0131l bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131, ula\u015f\u0131m altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n fosil yak\u0131tlardan nas\u0131l ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fi gibi kritik konulara iklim politikam\u0131zda ya da stratejik planlarda yeterince yer verildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemek zor.<\/p>\n

Paris sonras\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye’yi ne bekliyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Paris’e giderken, \u00fclkelerin sunmu\u015f oldu\u011fu ulusal katk\u0131lar, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda 2,7 \u2013 3,7\u00b0C daha s\u0131cak bir gezegene i\u015faret ediyor. Mevcut taahh\u00fctler, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 etkilerinden korunmam\u0131z i\u00e7in yetersiz. Ancak, bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6rmek gerekiyor. UEA \u0130cra Kurulu Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Fatih Birol \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji pazar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketicisi olan \u00c7in k\u00f6m\u00fcr kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, EBRD ve ihracat-ithalat bankalar\u0131 da dahil olmak \u00fczere pek \u00e7ok finans kurumunun k\u00f6m\u00fcr yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan elini \u00e7eliyor. K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn hem finansman\u0131 hem de toplumsal kabul\u00fc zorla\u015f\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck emisyonlu mal ve hizmetlerin g\u00fcmr\u00fck muafiyetine tabi tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fczakere ediyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclke ekonomileri kendilerine enerji ve karbon yo\u011funlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kulvarlar yaratmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’nin iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadeleye ulusal katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, enerji ve sanayi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n bu ger\u00e7eklerle uyumu ise tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye’nin de bir an \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbonlu kalk\u0131nma kulvar\u0131na girmesi gerekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye daha \u00f6nceki s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde ge\u00e7 kald\u0131 ve mevcut, \u00e7evre ve sa\u011fl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan sorunlu enerji sistemini yenileme f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 da ka\u00e7\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu defa, daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir hedefle hem iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin etkilerini azaltabilir hem de enerjide fosil yak\u0131tlardan yenilenebilir enerji ve enerji verimlili\u011fine ge\u00e7i\u015fi sa\u011flayan at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n

WWF-T\u00fcrkiye <\/strong><\/p>\n

WWF-T\u00fcrkiye d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck, deneyimli ve ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z do\u011fa koruma kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan WWF a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. Be\u015f milyonu a\u015fk\u0131n destek\u00e7iye ve 100\u2019den fazla \u00fclkede etkin bir k\u00fcresel a\u011fa sahip WWF\u2019in misyonu, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n biyolojik \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fini koruyarak, yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fini sa\u011flayarak; kirlilik ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 t\u00fcketimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ederek gezegenimizin do\u011fal \u00e7evresinin bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak ve insan\u0131n do\u011fayla uyum i\u00e7inde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir gelece\u011fin kurulmas\u0131na katk\u0131da bulunmakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: B\u00fcltenler<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.T\u00fcrkiye ne taahh\u00fct ediyor? T\u00fcrkiye iklim politikas\u0131n\u0131 en ba\u015f\u0131nda beri geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle k\u0131yaslanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi arg\u00fcman\u0131 \u00fczerine kurdu. Burada hakl\u0131l\u0131k pay\u0131 var. T\u00fcrkiye’nin sera […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47581,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,52],"tags":[27292,27293,27290,21760,63,67,1009,2698,165,12,7946,1999,27289,11427,985,27288,27138,27291,846,793,1298,687,105],"views":1161,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47577"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47577"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47577\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47582,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47577\/revisions\/47582"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47581"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47577"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47577"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47577"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}