{"id":47415,"date":"2015-12-04T16:32:46","date_gmt":"2015-12-04T13:32:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=47415"},"modified":"2015-12-04T16:32:46","modified_gmt":"2015-12-04T13:32:46","slug":"yorum-opec-toplaniyor-benzin-ucuzlayacak-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/yorum-opec-toplaniyor-benzin-ucuzlayacak-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Yorum: OPEC Toplan\u0131yor, Benzin Ucuzlayacak m\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n az da olsa d\u00fc\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil mi? Bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 bu soruya yan\u0131t olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc (OPEC) 4 Aral\u0131k Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc (bug\u00fcn) toplan\u0131yor. Toplant\u0131da yeni petrol \u00fcreti\"yorum-opec-toplaniyor-benzin-ucuzlayacak-mi\"<\/a>m kotalar\u0131 belirlenecek. G\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretim miktar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lacak m\u0131 yoksa azalt\u0131lacak m\u0131 bug\u00fcn belli olacak.<\/p>\n

Al\u0131nacak karar bizi de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiriyor. Bu karar sadece akaryak\u0131t fiyat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil t\u00fcm enerji piyasas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek bir karar olacak. \u0130\u015f\u00e7isinden patronuna, i\u015fsizinden i\u015f arayan\u0131na herkesin hayat\u0131na dokunacak. Arabalar suyla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi fabrikalarda \u00e7arklar da suyla d\u00f6nm\u00fcyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc.<\/p>\n

PETROLDE YEN\u0130 OYUN<\/strong><\/p>\n

Peki petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n az da olsa d\u00fc\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil mi? Bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 da bu soruya yan\u0131t olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cde\u011fi\u015fiklik yok\u201d karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n aksine bu y\u0131l toplant\u0131dan bir \u201c\u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d karar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da teorik olarak petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi anlam\u0131na gelecek. Ama e\u011fer 2016 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen \u201cham petrol talebi de y\u00fcksek olursa\u201d bu kez fiyatlarda anlaml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rme \u015fans\u0131m\u0131z azalacak.<\/p>\n

Peki, hem toplant\u0131dan \u00e7\u0131kacak sonu\u00e7 hem de 2016 petrol piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler nedir? Hemen bakal\u0131m ama \u00f6nce ge\u00e7en kas\u0131mdan bu yana ne ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 onu hat\u0131rlayal\u0131m.<\/p>\n

KASIM\u2019DAN BU YANA<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. Bu toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girmi\u015f olan petrol fiyatlar\u0131na \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131larak yani arz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclerek m\u00fcdahale edilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu ama OPEC \u201cs\u00fcrpriz\u201d bir kararla \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na gitmedi.<\/p>\n

Bu karar\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131nda ekonomik olmaktan \u00e7ok siyasi sebepler etkiliydi:<\/p>\n

ABD, Ukrayna krizi nedeniyle Rusya\u2019y\u0131 k\u00f6\u015feye s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmak ve n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n elini zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne engel olacak bir ad\u0131m atmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticisi olmas\u0131 nedeniyle adeta bir petrol merkez bankas\u0131 konumunda olan Suudi Arabistan da fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131ndan yana bir tutum sergiledi. Bu sayede en ciddi rakip olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yeni teknolojilerle -hidrolik k\u0131rma ve yatay sondaj yoluyla \u015feyl \u00fcretimi, petrol kumu, derin sularda sondaj- ve kuyulara g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek maliyetle \u00fcretim yapan \u015firketlerin etkinli\u011fini k\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyordu. Piyasan\u0131n karar vericisi ABD ile uygulay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 Suudi Arabistan yukarda sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z hedeflerine k\u0131smen ula\u015ft\u0131. Fiyatlar da 2015 boyunca 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda \u2013ortalama 60 dolar civar\u0131nda- kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u015eU ANK\u0130 DURUM<\/strong><\/p>\n

OPEC bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ise \u00fcretimi \u201cart\u0131rma\u201d yoluna gidecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n birli\u011fe kat\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte bu olas\u0131l\u0131k daha da y\u00fckseldi. Bunun yan\u0131nda Bat\u0131 ile anla\u015fan ve ambargolardan kurtulan \u0130ran \u00fcretimini art\u0131r\u0131p ge\u00e7en y\u0131llar\u0131n ac\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kartmak istiyor. Fakat ciddi bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Ambargonun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc y\u0131llar boyunca eksik kalan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar tamamlanmadan \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Suudi Arabistan ise, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat-\u00e7ok \u00fcretimle hem rakibi olan yeni teknolojileri ezmeyi hem de pazar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmeyi hedefliyor. Ama Yemen operasyonu, devasa yat\u0131r\u0131mlar v.s. derken Suudi Arabistan b\u00fct\u00e7esi a\u00e7\u0131k vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu y\u0131l a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Hazine bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131yla (yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 milyar dolar) finansman arama yoluna gitmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer \u00f6nemli OPEC \u00fcyelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda Katar ve Kuveyt\u2019in tuzu kurular aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlardan pek etkilenmeyecek durumdalar.<\/p>\n

Ama Rusya, Venezuela ve Cezayir tam aksi kutupta yer al\u0131yor. Bu \u00fclkelerin gelirlerinin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 petrol ihracat\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu i\u00e7in fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini istiyorlar. Ama karar vericiler, ABD ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019a galebe \u00e7almalar\u0131 pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam talebin 93.7 milyon varil, \u00fcretiminse 95.4 milyon varil olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Yani 1.5 milyon varillik bir arz fazlas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7inse talebin 1.5 milyon varil artaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. OPEC 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretim miktar\u0131n\u0131 1 milyon varil art\u0131r\u0131p 31 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131karsa bile bu arz ve talebin nispeten dengede olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hatta 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 1.5 milyon varil olan arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n 500 bin varile inece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle petrol arz\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olsa bile taleple do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131 artaca\u011f\u0131ndan ham petrol fiyat\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ya da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe sebep olmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n

BENZ\u0130N N\u0130YE PAHALI?<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye, akaryak\u0131t fiyat\u0131n\u0131n en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu \u00fclkelerden biri. Bunun en \u00f6nemli sebebi de vergiler. Benzine \u00f6dedi\u011fimiz her 100 liran\u0131n ortalama 65 liras\u0131 vergiye gidiyor. \u201cH\u00fck\u00fcmet vergiyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrs\u00fcn akaryak\u0131t fiyat\u0131 da ucuzlas\u0131n\u201d demek de sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zm\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131da tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z denklemin i\u00e7inde oyun kurucu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z m\u00fcddet\u00e7e de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bir de h\u00fck\u00fcmet haz\u0131r fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fken bundan faydalanabildi\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde faydalanmak istiyor.<\/p>\n

Deniz Bayramo\u011flu \/ Radikal<\/p>\n

Haberin Devam\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in TIKLAYINIZ>>><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n az da olsa d\u00fc\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil mi? Bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 bu soruya yan\u0131t olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[2289,9257,2725,2142,13702,734,63,67,1009,2698,165,1377,15717,59,79,8805,2388,27215,887],"views":789,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47415"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47415"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47417,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47415\/revisions\/47417"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}