{"id":4696,"date":"2012-12-25T14:12:40","date_gmt":"2012-12-25T11:12:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=4696"},"modified":"2012-12-25T14:17:45","modified_gmt":"2012-12-25T11:17:45","slug":"2013%e2%80%b2te-dogalgazda-maliyet-baskisi-santral-kapattiracak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/2013%e2%80%b2te-dogalgazda-maliyet-baskisi-santral-kapattiracak\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) 2013\u2032te Do\u011falgazda Maliyet Bask\u0131s\u0131 Santral Kapatt\u0131racak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Garanti Yat\u0131r\u0131m 2013 Strateji Raporu\u2019nda\u00a0 enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u015fu tavsiyelerde bulunuldu:<\/strong><\/p>\n

2013\u2019te talepte iyile\u015fme bekliyoruz.<\/strong>\u00a02012\u2019nin ilk 11 ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrik t\u00fcketimi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5.6 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2 ay verisinde t\u00fcketimin bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda elektrik t\u00fcketiminin %5 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 2013\u2019te ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elektrik t\u00fcketiminin %7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sekt\u00f6rde orta vadede cazip b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli mevcuttur ancak y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak artan bor\u00e7luluk, sermaye ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Elektrik \u00fcretiminin %45\u2019ini \u00fcreten do\u011falgaz santrallerinde<\/strong> maliyetler y\u00fckseliyor.<\/strong> 2011 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana do\u011falgaz fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131. 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda hi\u00e7 do\u011falgaz zamm\u0131 yap\u0131lmasa da ortalama do\u011falgaz maliyeti y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15 artacakt\u0131r. Maliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n elektrik sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131lamamas\u0131 durumunda faaliyet karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015febilir. Olumsuz beklentiler nedeniyle Ak Enerji, 2013 ba\u015f\u0131nda 98MW g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki \u00c7erkezk\u00f6y kojenerasyon do\u011falgaz santrali faaliyetlerini durduracakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"hidroelektrik<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ara\u015ft\u0131rma kapsam\u0131m\u0131zdaki \u015firketlerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki toplam kapasitesi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda fazla de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. <\/strong>Kas\u0131m sonu itibariyle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kurulu kapasite 56,760MW, kurulu kapasitenin %44\u2019\u00fc kamuya ait iken, %40\u2019\u0131 serbest \u00fcretim \u015firketlerine ait. Aksa Enerji\u2019nin 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda 57MW g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki iki adet r\u00fczgar santralinin devreye girmesi bekleniyor. Zorlu Enerji\u2019nin ve Ak Enerji\u2019nin 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de devreye girecek yeni kapasitesi bulunmuyor. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu 3 \u015firketin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kurulu kapasitelerinin 1,100MW artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

AK ENERJ\u0130<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"akenerji_hisse\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2022 2013-sonu hedef fiyat\u0131m\u0131z 2.40TL %9 art\u0131\u015f potansiyeli sunmaktad\u0131r. \u015eirket\u2019in orta vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeline kar\u015f\u0131n 2013\u2019te piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 nedeniyle kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 santrali ile operasyonel kapasitesinin azalmas\u0131, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda yaz\u0131lacak y\u00fcksek finansal giderler ve devam eden yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6nemi nedenleriyle hissenin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Ak Enerji 2013 ba\u015f\u0131nda kapasitesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam 87MW g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 3 yeni hidrolektrik santrali devreye alan Ak Enerji 2013 ba\u015f\u0131nda 98MW g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki \u00c7erkezk\u00f6y kojenerasyon do\u011falgaz santralini durduracak. \u00c7erkezk\u00f6y tesisinin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda \u015firketin i\u015fletmede olan kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc 648MW olacak. \u00d6te yandan Ak Enerji 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda devreye girmesi beklenen 900MW g\u00fcc\u00fcnde planlanan EGEMER do\u011falgaz santralinin yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na devam etmektedir. EGEMER kombine \u00e7evrim santralinin yeni teknolojisi ile y\u00fcksek verimlilikle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u2022 FVA\u00d6K marj\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Ak Enerji\u2019nin 9A12\u2019de toplam elektrik \u00fcretiminin %14\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcreten ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karl\u0131l\u0131kla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan tesisin kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 marjlar\u0131 olumlu etkileyecektir. Ayr\u0131ca 2012\u2019nin 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda devreye girmi\u015f y\u00fcksek karl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa sahip hidroelektrik santrallerin 2013\u2019te tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak olmas\u0131 ile FVA\u00d6K marj\u0131nda 4 puan iyile\u015fme bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk nakit yarat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Ak Enerji\u2019nin 3\u00c712 sonu itibariyle 1.33mlr TL net borcu bulunmaktad\u0131r. Ak Enerji\u2019nin AkCEZ\u2019deki %45 pay\u0131n\u0131 toplam 140mn ABD$ bedelle ana ortaklara satmas\u0131 ile bor\u00e7 pozisyonu iyile\u015fecek. Buna ra\u011fmen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda faaliyet seviyesindeki iyile\u015fmeler, y\u00fcksek finansal giderlerin etkisiyle g\u00f6lgelenecektir.<\/p>\n

AKSA ENERJ\u0130<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"aksa.enerji_hisse\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2022 2013-sonu hedef fiyat\u0131m\u0131z 4.30TL %7 art\u0131\u015f potansiyeli sunmaktad\u0131r. Aksa Enerji, ana orta\u011f\u0131 Kazanc\u0131 Holding ile entegre yap\u0131s\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme plan\u0131 ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Aksa Enerji\u2019nin 2012-2020 aras\u0131nda FVA\u00d6K\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama %19 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, kurulu kapasitesinin %80\u2019i do\u011falgaz santrallerinden gelen Aksa Enerji\u2019yi olumsuz etkilemeye devam edecektir. \u015eirket\u2019in 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda devreye girecek kapasitesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131 2013\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Goldman Sachs ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatland\u0131. Aksa Enerji\u2019nin ana orta\u011f\u0131 Kazanc\u0131 Holding, Goldman Sachs ile Nisan 2012\u2019de imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, toplam 240mn ABD$ bedelle Aksa Enerji\u2019de %13.30 paya sahip oldu. Anla\u015fman\u0131n piyasa de\u011ferine g\u00f6re olan primini korumas\u0131n\u0131 \u015firketin uzun vadeli planlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

\u2022 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck serbest elektrik \u00fcreticisi. Aksa Enerji mevcut 2,045MW kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 4,500MW\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karacakt\u0131r. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda 9.8TWs olan elektrik \u00fcretimini 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 20TWs\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Portf\u00f6ydeki yenilenebilir santrallerin toplamdaki pay\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ile karl\u0131l\u0131k artacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2022 \u00dcretimdeki art\u0131\u015f sat\u0131\u015flara yans\u0131yacak. Aksa Enerji, kapasite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile gelecek \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 grup \u015firketi vas\u0131tas\u0131yla da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u015firketlerine ve ihracata y\u00f6nlendirecektir. Aksa Enerji Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019ta yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar ve k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerdeki faaliyetleri ile sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ortalama elektrik sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131na ula\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk devam ediyor. Aksa Enerji\u2019nin 3\u00c712 sonu itibariyle 536mn ABD$ ve 183mn \u20ac a\u00e7\u0131k d\u00f6viz pozisyonu bulunmaktad\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u015firketin 1.5mlr TL seviyesinde olan net borcu de\u011ferleme \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

ZORLU ENERJ\u0130<\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"zorlu.enerji_hisse\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2022 2013-sonu 1.15TL olan hedef fiyat\u0131m\u0131z %7 art\u0131\u015f potansiyelini i\u015faret etmektedir. Zorlu Enerji 628MW kurulu g\u00fcc\u00fc ile sekt\u00f6rde \u00f6nde gelen serbest elektrik \u00fcreticileri aras\u0131nda yer almaktad\u0131r. Zorlu Enerji yurt i\u00e7indeki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile b\u00f6lgesel bir oyuncu olma yolunda ilerlemektedir. \u015eirketin yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi hen\u00fcz beklenen seviyeye ula\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ve yap\u0131lan sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 devam eden \u015firketin halen negatif \u00f6zsermayeye sahip olmas\u0131 hisse \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n

\u2022 3\u00c712 sonu itibariyle 2.0mlr TL net bor\u00e7. \u015eirketin May\u0131s 2012\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lu ve negatif \u00f6zsermayeye sahip bilan\u00e7osu yap\u0131lmakta olan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in yeni bir sermaye art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131na i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Rusya operasyonlar\u0131 beklenen karl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ula\u015fmad\u0131. Kas\u0131m 2011\u2019de devreye giren Tereshkovo santrali 2012 Mart ay\u0131nda kombine \u00e7evrime ge\u00e7mesine kar\u015f\u0131n halen beklenen karl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa ula\u015famad\u0131. Yap\u0131lmakta olan 80mn ABD$ tutar\u0131ndaki ilave yat\u0131r\u0131m ile 1\u00c713\u2019te Kojukhovo santralinin devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 ile operasyonel kapasitenin 340MW + 420gcal\/saat \u0131s\u0131 enerjisine y\u00fckselmesi planlan\u0131yor. \u015eirketin Rusya\u2019daki varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011finin artmas\u0131 il marjlarda iyile\u015fme beklemekteyiz.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Geni\u015fleyen co\u011frafi da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m. \u015eirket Rusya\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar haricinde Pakistan\u2019da 56.4MW g\u00fcc\u00fcnde r\u00fczgar enerji santrali kurmaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca Zorlu Enerji \u0130srail\u2019de toplam 1,075MW g\u00fcc\u00fcnde 4 adet kombine \u00e7evirim do\u011falgaz santrali kuracakt\u0131r. Projedeki 800MW g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki Dorad santralinin in\u015faat\u0131na 2011 ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015f olup 2014\u2019te tesisin devreye girmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Garanti Yat\u0131r\u0131m 2013 Strateji Raporu\u2019nda\u00a0 enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u015fu tavsiyelerde bulunuldu: 2013\u2019te talepte iyile\u015fme bekliyoruz.\u00a02012\u2019nin ilk 11 ay\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de elektrik t\u00fcketimi y\u0131ll\u0131k […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,51,53,47],"tags":[1570,1571,67,165,1572,344],"views":1866,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4696"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4696"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4696\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4707,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4696\/revisions\/4707"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4696"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4696"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4696"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}