{"id":45415,"date":"2015-10-15T10:01:10","date_gmt":"2015-10-15T07:01:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=45415"},"modified":"2015-10-15T10:01:10","modified_gmt":"2015-10-15T07:01:10","slug":"yorum-rusya-gerginliginde-enerji-boyutu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/yorum-rusya-gerginliginde-enerji-boyutu\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Yorum: Rusya Gerginli\u011finde Enerji Boyutu…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

\"rusya-ukrayna-do\u011falgaz-23879238233-696x385\"<\/a>Enerji uzman\u0131 Necdet Pamir, T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya aras\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f politikada ya\u015fanan gerginli\u011fin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji ihtiyac\u0131na yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 Deutsche Welle i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

De\u011ferlendirmemize, \u00f6nce Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n son g\u00fcnlerdeki baz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Say\u0131n Erdo\u011fan diyor ki: \u201cArife g\u00fcn\u00fc Moskova\u2019da Putin ile y\u00fcz y\u00fcze g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; hava operasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n hemen akabinde telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmemiz oldu. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ya\u015fananlar da hava sahas\u0131 ihlalleri de ciddiyetle ba\u011fda\u015fm\u0131yor. Elbette k\u0131rg\u0131nl\u0131k i\u00e7indeyiz. B\u00f6yle bir \u015fey olmamal\u0131yd\u0131.\u201d Ve ard\u0131ndan bir gazetecinin \u201cDo\u011fal gazla ilgili projeler, Mersin Akkuyu (N\u00fckleer Santrali) gibi projeler ya\u015fanan s\u00fcre\u00e7ten nas\u0131l etkilenir?\u201d bi\u00e7imindeki sorusuna \u015fu yan\u0131t\u0131 veriyor: \u201cBu tek tarafl\u0131 bir konu de\u011fil. Bunlar ayn\u0131 zamanda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi gereken meseleler. Akkuyu\u2019yu Ruslar yapmaz ise bir ba\u015fkas\u0131 gelir yapar. Oraya 3 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131lar zaten. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla o konuda daha hassas olmas\u0131 gereken Rusya. Do\u011fal gaz konusuna gelince\u2026 Biz Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketicisiyiz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kaybetmek Rusya i\u00e7in ciddi bir kay\u0131p olur. T\u00fcrkiye, gerekti\u011finde, do\u011falgaz\u0131 \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 yerlerden temin yoluna da gidebilir. \u0130cab\u0131nda farkl\u0131 alternatiflere y\u00f6nelir.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerin (ne yaz\u0131k ki) bilimsel bir dayana\u011f\u0131 yoktur. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan, belki en son s\u00f6ylenecek \u015feyleri, en ba\u015fta s\u00f6ylemek gerekir: Herhangi bir \u00fclkeye, enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in oldu\u011fu kadar, ekonomik g\u00fcvenlik ve d\u0131\u015f politika a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olu\u015fturur. Nitekim Avrupa Birli\u011fi de Rusya\u2019ya do\u011fal gazdaki ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul edilebilir seviyelere (% 30\u2019un alt\u0131na) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; kaynak \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek i\u00e7in t\u00fcm olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 seferber ediyor. E\u011fer herhangi bir \u00fclkeye a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 konumda iseniz, \u00f6zellikle d\u0131\u015f politikan\u0131zda att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z ad\u0131mlarda ve politika tercihlerinizde bu \u00fclke ile ili\u015fkilerinizin olumsuz etkilenmemesine azami dikkat etmeniz ve bu \u00fclkeye (ya da \u00fclkelere) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131ktan da bir an \u00f6nce kurtulman\u0131z gerekir. \u00d6zetle, \u201cCamdan k\u00f6\u015fkte oturup, sa\u011fa sola ta\u015f atmaya kalkarsan\u0131z, bedelini a\u011f\u0131r \u00f6deyebilirsiniz.\u201d<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji haritas\u0131<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerjideki durumunu \u00f6zetleyelim: Birincil enerji t\u00fcketiminde, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 73,5. AKP iktidara geldi\u011finde bu oran, y\u00fczde 67\u2019ydi. 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda enerji ithalat faturam\u0131z 9,2 milyar dolard\u0131. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015fen enerji talebine ve azalan petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu rakam, tam 55 milyar dolar oldu. Enerjide en y\u00fcksek oranda ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fumuz \u00fclke Rusya Federasyonu. Do\u011fal gaz\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 98\u2019ini ithal ediyoruz. Bu ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 55\u2019i Rusya\u2019dan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriliyor. Petrolde (petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri de d\u00e2hil edilirse) Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fczde 16\u2019lar seviyesinde\u2026 K\u00f6m\u00fcr ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 35\u2019i de gene bu \u00fclkeden\u2026 Bu yetmezmi\u015f gibi \u00fclkemizde in\u015fa etmeye karar verdikleri (AKP\u2019nin Meclis\u2019teki parmak \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu ile) Akkuyu N\u00fckleer Santrali\u2019nin de in\u015faat\u0131ndan i\u015fletmesine, yak\u0131t tedarikinden at\u0131k yak\u0131t\u0131n muamelesine her a\u015famas\u0131nda Ruslar y\u00fczde 100 i\u015fin sahibi\u2026 Yani, enerjide mevcut a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k yetmezmi\u015f gibi, bir de n\u00fckleerde y\u00fczde 100 Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z macerayla, g\u0131rtla\u011f\u0131m\u0131za kadar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getiriliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Ama bu arada, \u00fclkemize (Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015fiddetle tepki verdi\u011fi) Patriot f\u00fczeleri ve f\u00fcze kalkan\u0131 yerle\u015ftiriliyor. Rusya a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan stratejik \u00f6neme sahip Suriye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 sald\u0131rgan bir politika izleniyor. Rusya, Suriye\u2019deki Tartus ve Lazkiye \u00fcslerindeki (kendisi i\u00e7in ya\u015famsal g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla artt\u0131r\u0131rken, AKP iktidar\u0131 rejim muhaliflerine yard\u0131m ya\u011fd\u0131r\u0131yor. Putin\u2019in, Lavrov\u2019un ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131, diplomatik \u201cteam\u00fclleri\u201d zorlayan ve tehdit olarak tan\u0131mlanacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yaparken; AKP ekibi, bunlar\u0131 dikkate almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\/\u00f6nemsemedi\u011fini kan\u0131tlamak istercesine macerac\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ama bu arada bir yandan T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ya\u015fama ge\u00e7irmek, bir yandan da mevcut hatlardan biri olan Mavi Ak\u0131m\u2019dan al\u0131nan y\u0131ll\u0131k 16 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck gaz\u0131n 19 milyar metrek\u00fcpe \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131na \u00e7abal\u0131yorlar. T\u00fcrk\u00e7e\u2019de bir deyim vard\u0131r: \u201cBu ne perhiz, bu ne lahana tur\u015fusu?\u201d T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan da Rusya\u2019ya \u201ck\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yorlar\u201d! Pes do\u011frusu\u2026<\/p>\n

Gelelim, Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n \u201cT\u00fcrkiye, gerekti\u011finde, do\u011fal gaz\u0131 \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 yerlerden temin yoluna da gidebilir\u201d iddias\u0131na\u2026 Herhalde bu k\u0131\u015f\u0131 kastetmiyordur! Ya da gelecek k\u0131\u015f\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal gaz\u0131n yar\u0131dan fazlas\u0131 Rusya\u2019dan<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye, daha \u00f6nce de belirtti\u011fimiz gibi, t\u00fcketti\u011fi (ya da ithal etti\u011fi) gaz\u0131n y\u00fczde 55\u2019ini Rusya\u2019dan al\u0131yor. Daha anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck al\u0131m kapasitemize bakal\u0131m. Mevcut anla\u015fmalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Rusya\u2019dan Bat\u0131 Hatt\u0131 ile g\u00fcnde 42, Mavi Ak\u0131m\u2019dan g\u00fcnde 48 milyon metrek\u00fcp al\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z var. \u0130ran\u2019dan (Suriye konusunda Rusya ile ayn\u0131 safta yer alan) g\u00fcnl\u00fck al\u0131m hakk\u0131m\u0131z 29, Azerbaycan\u2019dan 19, Nijerya ve Cezayir\u2019den (LNG) toplam 22 milyon metrek\u00fcp. \u00d6zel \u015firkete ait Egegaz\u2019dan 22 milyon metrek\u00fcp (spot al\u0131mlar yap\u0131labilir), yerli \u00fcretim 2 milyon metrek\u00fcp ve mevcut (s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) depomuzdan geri \u00e7ekme kapasitemiz g\u00fcnde 18 milyon metrek\u00fcp\u2026 Yani, \u00f6zel \u015firketi ve depomuzu da devreye soksan\u0131z, 196 milyon metrek\u00fcp gaz tedarik edebilirsiniz. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l so\u011fuk g\u00fcnlerde t\u00fcketim, 210 milyon metrek\u00fcpe yakla\u015ft\u0131. E\u011fer baz\u0131 talep azalt\u0131c\u0131 ve zorlay\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler olmasa, bu rakam\u0131n g\u00fcnde 240 milyon metrek\u00fcpe eri\u015febilece\u011fi biliniyor. Bu y\u0131l, bu seviyeyi g\u00f6rebiliriz. Durum \u00f6zetle b\u00f6yle\u2026<\/p>\n

Durum b\u00f6yleyken, Erdo\u011fan \u201cRusya yerine ba\u015fkas\u0131ndan al\u0131r\u0131z\u201d diyor. Bu i\u015f, yandaki marketten ekmek peynir almaya benzemez. G\u00fcnl\u00fck 90 milyon metrek\u00fcp do\u011fal gaz\u0131, \u00f6rne\u011fin bu k\u0131\u015f\u0131n ortas\u0131na kadar, hangi boru hatt\u0131 ile ya da hangi LNG deponuz arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla, hangi \u00fclkeden alacaks\u0131n\u0131z? Bunun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm ilgililer ama en iyi de Rus taraf\u0131 biliyor ve b\u0131y\u0131k alt\u0131ndan g\u00fcl\u00fcyorlar. Kald\u0131 ki ne \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n (\u00e7ok istese de) ne Azerbaycan\u2019\u0131n, 90 milyon metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck hacimle k\u0131yaslanabilecek ilave ihra\u00e7 imkan\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadede) yok. Kald\u0131 ki mevcut altyap\u0131 da s\u00f6z konusu hacimler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00e7ok yetersiz\u2026 Ke\u015fke do\u011fal gaza bu kadar y\u00fcksek oranda ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmasayd\u0131k da do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131n\u0131, \u00fclkeler baz\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7e\u015fitlendirebilseydik. Ya da at\u0131l bekleyen yerli ve \u00e7o\u011fu yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131, \u015fu 13 y\u0131ll\u0131k AKP iktidar\u0131nda (ve daha \u00f6ncesinde), kademeli olarak daha fazla devreye al\u0131p; do\u011fal gaz\u0131n enerji t\u00fcketimindeki y\u00fczde 31 ve elektrik t\u00fcketimimizdeki y\u00fczde 49\u2019luk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilseydik. AKP\u2019nin s\u00f6ylemi ile eylemi taban tabana z\u0131t. Durmaks\u0131z\u0131n yeni do\u011fal gaz santrali lisans\u0131 verip, bir taraftan da \u201cgaza ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azalt\u0131yoruz\u201d diyorlar. Bir yandan da ithal k\u00f6m\u00fcr santrali lisans\u0131 ya\u011fd\u0131r\u0131yor Enerji Piyasas\u0131 D\u00fczenleme Kurulu. Ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k, onlara az gelmi\u015f olsa gerek!!!<\/p>\n

Gelelim n\u00fckleer santrali iptal edip, ba\u015fkas\u0131na vermeye\u2026 C\u00fcmlenin ilk k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131, yani iptal k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ke\u015fke yapabilseler; en \u00e7ok ben sevinirim. Ama Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n da s\u00f6yledi\u011fi gibi (do\u011fruysa) Ruslar \u015fimdiden 3 milyar dolar harcam\u0131\u015f. Bunu \u201csaray\u0131n\u201d b\u00fct\u00e7esinden mi \u00f6demeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor acaba? Daha da \u00f6nemlisi, bu santralin yap\u0131m\u0131na dair anla\u015fma, bizlerin muhalefetine kar\u015f\u0131n, AKP milletvekillerinin TBMM\u2019deki parmak \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u201csayesinde\u201d onayland\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fma stat\u00fcs\u00fc kazand\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. E\u011fer yolsuzluk, usuls\u00fczl\u00fck ya da hukuksuzluk gibi konularda somut belgeler ortaya konulabilirse, bu tehlikeli in\u015faat durdurulabilir. Ama bunu AKP iktidar\u0131 yapamaz.<\/p>\n

D\u0131\u015f politika ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7: Bu kadar ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 isen, d\u0131\u015f politikanda da, ekonominde de g\u00fcvenli\u011finde de risk alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rs\u0131n! Bir kez daha: Camdan \u201csarayda\u201d oturup, sa\u011fa sola ta\u015f atmak, \u00e7ok ama \u00e7ok riskli bir i\u015ftir! \u00dcstelik bu \u201ce\u011flencenin\u201d bedelini, sadece saray\u0131n camlar\u0131 de\u011fil, t\u00fcm vatanda\u015flar \u00f6der.<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, kan\u0131mca tamamen i\u00e7 politikaya y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalard\u0131r. Hava saham\u0131z ihlal edilip, destek verdi\u011fimiz Suriye \u201cmuhalif\u201d g\u00fc\u00e7leri, Rusya taraf\u0131ndan h\u0131rpalan\u0131rken sessiz kalmak, ho\u015f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc vermiyor zira\u2026<\/p>\n

Oysa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin halen devreye al\u0131nmam\u0131\u015f olan linyit, hidroelektrik, g\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar, jeotermal, biyok\u00fctle kaynaklar\u0131; do\u011fru ve temiz teknolojilerle devreye al\u0131n\u0131p, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik ekipman\u0131n (t\u00fcrbinler, paneller, jenerat\u00f6rler, vb.) yerli imalat\u0131 da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilirse, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerjideki ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da h\u0131zla azalacakt\u0131r. Buna, \u00f6zellikle binalardaki ve sanayideki enerji verimlili\u011finde yap\u0131lacak iyile\u015ftirmeler eklenirse, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik kayg\u0131 duymam\u0131z i\u00e7in hi\u00e7bir neden olmayacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l t\u00fcketti\u011fimiz elektrik enerjisi miktar\u0131 olan 257 milyar kilovat-saat temel al\u0131n\u0131rsa, yukar\u0131da sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m at\u0131l kaynak potansiyelin bunun 3,2 kat\u0131 (818 milyar kilovat-saat) oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye, bu k\u0131s\u0131r ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 gelece\u011fe mahkum de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Son tahlilde, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fal gaz\u0131 kesmekte bir yarar\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de i\u00e7 politikaya ve se\u00e7ime y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6z konusu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 fiiliyata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmesinin en az\u0131ndan hukuken m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 (aksi halde sorumlu duruma d\u00fc\u015fer) da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa, devran b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla gene eskisi gibi (eski tas, eski hamam) devam edecektir. (Deutsche Welle)<\/p>\n

Kaynak: EnerjiEnstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

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Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Enerji uzman\u0131 Necdet Pamir, T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya aras\u0131nda d\u0131\u015f politikada ya\u015fanan gerginli\u011fin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji ihtiyac\u0131na yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 Deutsche Welle i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirdi. De\u011ferlendirmemize, \u00f6nce […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[46,53],"tags":[1026,26328,26329,2503,2063,4221,26330,26331],"views":667,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45415"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45415"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45417,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45415\/revisions\/45417"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}