{"id":45210,"date":"2015-10-09T17:43:02","date_gmt":"2015-10-09T14:43:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=45210"},"modified":"2015-10-09T17:43:02","modified_gmt":"2015-10-09T14:43:02","slug":"petroldeki-dususun-kuresel-ekonomiye-en-buyuk-4-zarari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petroldeki-dususun-kuresel-ekonomiye-en-buyuk-4-zarari\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petroldeki D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn K\u00fcresel Ekonomiye En B\u00fcy\u00fck 4 Zarar\u0131…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

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D\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyece\u011fi beklentisiyle heyecanla kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\"Oil<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Teoride sermayenin, petrol gelirini egemen sermaye varl\u0131klar\u0131na istifleyen emtia \u00fcreticilerinden, gelirlerinin \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 harcayan t\u00fcketicilere kaymas\u0131 ekonomik aktivite i\u00e7in olumlu bir durum.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ancak Credit Suisse stratejistlerine g\u00f6re \u015fimdiye kadar k\u00fcresel ekonomi sadece d\u00fc\u015fen ham petrolden sonraki f\u0131rt\u0131nay\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc, onu takip eden g\u00f6kku\u015fa\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel hisse stratejisti Andrew Garthwaite ve ekibi, \u201cPetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015fme, biz de dahil olmak \u00fczere bir \u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel GSYH b\u00fcymesi \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 bir pozitif etki olarak kabul edilmi\u015fti\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n

Ancak hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re bu geli\u015fmenin net etkisi, k\u00fcresel ekonomiye y\u00fczde 0,2\u2019lik bir zarar oldu.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131 petrol\u00fcn negatif etkileri \u2013 yani sermaye harcamalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 kesintiler \u2013 k\u00fcresel gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apta ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir darbe yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Stratejistler durumu \u015fu \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131: \u201cProblem \u015fu ki, k\u00fcresel sermaye giderlerinin takriben y\u00fczde 30\u2019u olan emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 sermaye giderleri hesaplar\u0131 (ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 12 aydaki y\u00fczde 13 azalan petrol giderleri ve y\u00fczde 31 azalan madencilik giderleriyle) ve ABD ve k\u00fcresel emtia sermaye ve operasyon giderlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, 2015\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k en az 0,8\u2019ini, ve ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l boyunca k\u00fcresel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,1\u2019lik k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc.\u201d<\/p>\n

Garthwaite ve ekibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Amerikan ekonomisini olumsuz olarak etkiledi\u011fi \u00fc\u00e7 di\u011fer kanal\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi: istihdam, \u00fccretler ve k\u00e2r pay\u0131 geliri.<\/p>\n

Petrol ve petrolle ili\u015fkili sekt\u00f6rlerde istihdam 2014 Ekim\u2019i itibariyle yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 8 gerileme ya\u015fad\u0131. \u00d6zellikle kaya petrol\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin as\u0131l kazanan\u0131 Kuzey Dakota\u2019da i\u015fsizlik taleplerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00f6nemde, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilerlemenin ard\u0131ndan petrol ve gaz \u00fcretiminde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n ortalama saatlik \u00fccretleri neredeyse y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca petrol stoklar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na yap\u0131lan \u00f6demeler de kesildi.<\/p>\n

Credit Suisse ise, bu durumu hane i\u00e7i gelir \u00fczerinde negatif bir etki olarak addetti.<\/p>\n

Ekibe g\u00f6re, \u201cSermaye giderlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, istihdam ve gelirlerin de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc getiriyor (\u00f6rne\u011fin, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndan beri Amerikan enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki maa\u015flardan edinilen toplam gelir y\u00fczde 18 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc), bunun yan\u0131nda sermaye gideri s\u00fcrecine hizmet eden di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rler (makine \u00fcreticilerinden catering ve otellere) \u00fczerinde de ikincil derecede bir etki yarat\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ekibin bir ba\u015fka bulgusuna g\u00f6re ise, sermaye harcamalar\u0131ndaki gerilemeler, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda arza dayal\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc en son g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 1980\u2019lere nazaran b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerinde \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f bir \u015foktan \u00e7ok daha az\u0131na sebep oluyor.<\/p>\n

Notlar\u0131nda, \u201cSonu\u00e7 olarak da, her ne kadar petrol fiyatlar\u0131 kesin bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, sermaye giderleri projeleri kesintilerindeki (ve yeniden ba\u015flatma) gecikme \u00f6yle bir \u015fekilde ki, sermaye giderleri GSYH \u00fczerinde bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olmaya devam edebilir\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundular.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, t\u00fcketici \u00fczerindeki pozitif etkiler a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclemeyecek kadar yava\u015f; ancak t\u00fcketicilerin tasarruf etmeyi se\u00e7tikleri gelirin y\u00fczdesindeki art\u0131\u015f \u00fczerinden bu pozitif etkiler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

ABD, Japonya ve Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131ndaki tasarruf oran\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcre devam edece\u011fiyle ilgili endi\u015feler uyand\u0131r\u0131yor. E\u011fer hane halklar\u0131, bu rahatlaman\u0131n sadece ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlarsa, bu fonlar\u0131 daha ihtiyari alanlara yaymay\u0131 tercih etmeyecekleri belirtiliyor. Garthwaite ve ekibi ise, t\u00fcketicilerin, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ilerleme oldu\u011fu kanaatine varmaya ve c\u00fczdanlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011fz\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Hal b\u00f6yleyken, Credit Suisse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n eninde sonunda -sermayenin daha y\u00fcksek bir marjinal t\u00fcketim e\u011filimi olan ki\u015filere aktar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n da sayesinde- k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in net bir kazan\u00e7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun yan\u0131nda ham petroldeki gev\u015femeye ba\u011fl\u0131 daha uyumlu bir mali ve parasal politika umudunun varoldu\u011funu iddia ediyor.<\/p>\n

KAYNAK:\u00a0Business HT<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. D\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyece\u011fi beklentisiyle heyecanla kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Teoride sermayenin, petrol gelirini egemen sermaye varl\u0131klar\u0131na istifleyen emtia \u00fcreticilerinden, gelirlerinin \u00e7ok daha […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[26233,7138,18928,347,8958,10516,19681,18929],"views":782,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45210"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45210"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45210\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":45212,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45210\/revisions\/45212"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45211"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}