{"id":43747,"date":"2015-09-02T18:52:20","date_gmt":"2015-09-02T15:52:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=43747"},"modified":"2015-09-02T18:52:20","modified_gmt":"2015-09-02T15:52:20","slug":"ucuz-petrolun-ekonomiye-sagladigi-kazanc-kayboluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/ucuz-petrolun-ekonomiye-sagladigi-kazanc-kayboluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Ucuz Petrol\u00fcn Ekonomiye Sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Kazan\u00e7 Kayboluyor…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Uzun s\u00fcredir yava\u015flayan ekonomisini h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00c7in, paras\u0131n\u0131 deval\u00fce etti. Borsalarda ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler sonras\u0131 d\u00fcnyada Asya kaynakl\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel kriz endi\u015fesi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatan geli\u015fme ise ABD\u2019den geldi.<\/span>\u00a0Asl\u0131nda Eyl\u00fcl ile birlikte ciddi bir endi\u015fe vard\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n FED, beklenenin aksine faizleri art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Bunun \u00fczerine finansal piyasalar \u00c7in depremi sonras\u0131 derin bir \u2018oh\u2019 \u00e7ekti.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130\u00e7erde ise se\u00e7im tarihinin belli olmas\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 bekleme moduna ge\u00e7irdi. Siyasi geli\u015fmeler ve d\u0131\u015f konjonkt\u00fcr d\u00f6viz kuru \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yapmaya devam ediyor. Dolar\u0131n 3 TL\u2019ye yakla\u015fmas\u0131 reel piyasalarda s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olu\u015ftururken g\u00f6sterge tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 11\u2019lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak zirveyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kurdaki \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve volatilitenin piyasada yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrb\u00fclans \u015fim\"ucuz-petrolun-ekonomiye-sagladigi-kazanc-kayboluyor\"<\/a>dilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck sebebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyat\u0131. Varil fiyat\u0131 120 dolardan \u00f6nce 60 dolara son g\u00fcnlerde ise 40 dolar seviyelerine kadar sarkan ucuz petrol ekonomi i\u00e7in asl\u0131nda tam bir doping unsuru.<\/p>\n

Erkan K\u0131z\u0131locak\u2019\u0131n Para\u2019daki haberine g\u00f6re kurdaki art\u0131\u015f bu kazanc\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Tersin den bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise, y\u00fcksek kurun neden olaca\u011f\u0131 finansal dalgalanmay\u0131 yumu\u015fat\u0131yor. Uzmanlar,\u00a0 ucuz petrol\u00fcn olumlu etkisinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ihracatta rakibi olan \u00fclkelere avantaj sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu avantaj\u0131 ya\u015fayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurguluyorlar.<\/p>\n

Akbank Ba\u015fekonomisti Fatma Melek, petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ve kur art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve enflasyona etkisini rakamsal olarak hesapl\u0131yor. Melek\u2019in hesab\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda ortalama petrol fiyat\u0131 55 dolar olarak al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, petrol ve do\u011falgaz toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fan enerji ithalat\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 14-15 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir azalmaya neden oluyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki her 10 dolarl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131m 0.5 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, sadece enerji ithalat\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n milli gelir oran\u0131na katk\u0131s\u0131 2 puana yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda zay\u0131f ihracat ve turizm gelirleri, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bu iyile\u015fmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Melek, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 40 milyar dolar, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 42 milyar dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini bekliyor. TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 de\u011ferlenmesi enflasyonu 1 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker.<\/p>\n

TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 10 de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n enflasyona etkisi 2.3 puan. Melek\u2019e g\u00f6re petroldeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn enflasyona etkisi ise 1.4 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n

I\u015f\u0131k \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Murat Ferman, kur ve faizin bu kadar y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu \u015fartlarda petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u015fans olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, her zaman g\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen bu fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn maliyetlere yans\u0131t\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. T\u00fcrkiye gibi enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin ucuz petrol\u00fcn avantaj\u0131n\u0131 kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda rekabet \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc elde ettiklerini savunuyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ise dolarla ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 euro ile satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu nedenle iki taraf\u0131 keskin bir b\u0131\u00e7a\u011f\u0131 elinde tuttu\u011funu belirtiyor.<\/p>\n

Deniz Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015fekonomisti \u00d6zlem Derici ise, ekonomide ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck hayatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n olumlu etkisinin \u00e7ok hissedilemedi\u011fini savunuyor. Baz\u0131 durumlarda sinirli bir etkinin s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Derici\u2019ye g\u00f6re, y\u00fcksek kur bu kazanc\u0131 g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Petrol ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkelerin gelirleri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in bizim ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Petrol 120 dolardan 60 dolara gelince y\u00fczde 50 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ancak bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin de yava\u015flamas\u0131, ticaret hacminin azalmas\u0131 demek.<\/p>\n

Saxo Capital Menkul De\u011ferler Strateji Uzman\u0131 C\u00fcneyt Paksoy, d\u00fcnyada emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tarihi diplerde oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek, ba\u015fta Rusya olmak \u00fczere emtia \u00fcreticilerinin zor durumda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnya ekonomisine katk\u0131s\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken Paksoy, bu \u00fclkelerdeki krizin d\u00fcnya ekonomisini yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Enerji maliyetlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli kazanc\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirten Paksoy\u2019a g\u00f6re, petrol\u00fcn \u015fu anda 40 dolar seviyelerinde seyretmesi, psikolojik olarak piyasalar\u0131 halen tahamm\u00fcl s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131nda tutmay\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Dolar kurunun 3 TL\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fartlarda ucuz petrol\u00fcn piyasada t\u00fcrb\u00fclans olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelledi\u011fini savunuyor.<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Enerji Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Uzun s\u00fcredir yava\u015flayan ekonomisini h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00c7in, paras\u0131n\u0131 deval\u00fce etti. Borsalarda ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler sonras\u0131 d\u00fcnyada Asya kaynakl\u0131 bir k\u00fcresel kriz endi\u015fesi […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43748,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[18768,63,67,1009,1614,2698,165,8811,59,79,347,2388,20750,887,18929,19062,25364],"views":493,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43747"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43747"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43747\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43749,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43747\/revisions\/43749"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43748"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}