{"id":43638,"date":"2015-08-31T08:32:53","date_gmt":"2015-08-31T05:32:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=43638"},"modified":"2015-08-31T08:32:53","modified_gmt":"2015-08-31T05:32:53","slug":"kose-yazisi-cin-ve-petrol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/kose-yazisi-cin-ve-petrol\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131: \u00c7in ve Petrol…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

<\/p>\n

Deniz G\u00f6k\u00e7e \/ Ak\u015fam<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"turkiye-ham-petrol-ithalati-2015-nedir-696x385\"<\/a>\u00c7in \u015fu anda, global \u00e7apta, hemen hemen her t\u00fcr ekonomik geli\u015fmeden sorumlu tutulmakta, \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr ki Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e adeta \u201c\u00e7ocuk\u201d muamelesi yapmakta.<\/span>\u00a0\u00d6zellikle de, \u00c7in bir\u00e7ok emtia fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden ve di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin de fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sonras\u0131 zora girmesinden sorumlu say\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7in \u015fimdi bir de petrol fiyat\u0131ndan sorumlu tutuluyor.<\/p>\n

Ne \u00e7abuk unutuluyor ki 2000 -2014 aras\u0131nda Bat\u0131 dev kriz \u00fcretirken D\u00fcnyan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 30 kadar\u0131 \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn ise baz\u0131lar\u0131 i\u015fi iyice abart\u0131p \u00c7in\u2019e \u201cVenezuela\u201d muamelesi yapmaktalar. Kald\u0131 ki bu t\u00fcr su\u00e7lama her t\u00fcr emtea i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olabilir ama petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n dalgalanmas\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in katk\u0131s\u0131 tezi, pek ge\u00e7erli de\u011fil. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda \u00c7in\u2019in \u00e7e\u015fitli emtealar konusunda global talebin ne kadar\u0131n\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n istatistikleri var. Tabloda ne g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz?
\nPetrolde \u00c7in global talebin sadece y\u00fczde 12 kadar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Halbuki k\u00f6m\u00fcrde global talebin y\u00fczde 77 kadar\u0131n\u0131 ,demirde y\u00fczde 73 kadar\u0131n\u0131 ve bak\u0131rda ve demir \u00e7elikte ise y\u00fczde 45-46 kadar\u0131n\u0131 \u00c7in yarat\u0131yor. Yani petrolde \u00c7in talebi g\u00f6reli olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile talebin art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve azal\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131n da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da, daha \u00e7ok \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00fclkelerin etkisi nedeni ile oluyor. \u00c7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol talebi olan \u00fclkesi asl\u0131nda ama, y\u00fczde 12 boyutundaki petrol talebi petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131 oynatma kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 veren bir g\u00fc\u00e7 de\u011fil.Tabii petrol konusunda esas yak\u0131ndan incelenmesi gereken petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n nereden ve nas\u0131l kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131.
\nDikkatle bak\u0131l\u0131rsa son d\u00f6nemde ABD\u2019deki \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilemez petrol arz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (shale boom deniyor ) asl\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren temel fakt\u00f6r. Daha ilgin\u00e7 olan da OPEC \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretim d\u00fczeylerini azaltmamaya kararl\u0131 olmalar\u0131. Bu nedenle de ortal\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fclen a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 petrol arz\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya itiyor, yani artmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor.
\n\u0130lgin\u00e7tir ki asl\u0131nda son birka\u00e7 ayda \u00c7in\u2019in petrol talebi azalmak yerine artma sergilemi\u015fti. G\u00fcmr\u00fck istatistikleri incelendi\u011finde ve bir y\u0131l evveli ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman temmuz 2015 ay\u0131nda petrol ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 22 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu g\u00fcnde kabaca 7.25 milyon varil demek.
\nBu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam etmesi zor ama gene de Citi Research taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma bu y\u0131l \u00c7in petrol talebinde y\u00fczde 7 art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek diyor.
\nAma petrol piyasas\u0131nda k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik hakim. Hatta denilebilir ki petrol piyasas\u0131nda hava, 2008-2009 finansal krizindeki k\u00f6t\u00fcmser havadan daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcmser. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol piyasas\u0131nda fiziki arz ve talep ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kopmu\u015f oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019deki talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da fiyatlar ucuzken stoklama niyeti ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi konu\u015fulmakta.
\n\u00c7in\u2019de diesel t\u00fcketimi azal\u0131yor. Bu asl\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminde yava\u015flama anlam\u0131na da gelebilir. Ama diesel azal\u0131rken, benzin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin, \u00c7in\u2019de \u00f6nceli\u011fin yat\u0131r\u0131mdan t\u00fcketime do\u011fru de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finin, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00f6stergesi olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmek zorunda.
\nD\u00fcnya geneli de olduk\u00e7a \u015fa\u015fk\u0131n.<\/p>\n

Devam\u0131 i\u00e7in\u00a0t\u0131klay\u0131n\u0131z<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language. Deniz G\u00f6k\u00e7e \/ Ak\u015fam \u00c7in \u015fu anda, global \u00e7apta, hemen hemen her t\u00fcr ekonomik geli\u015fmeden sorumlu tutulmakta, \u00fcz\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr ki Bat\u0131 medyas\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":43639,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[25310,25311,1377,10475,8805,887,2415,25312,16731],"views":1427,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43638"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43640,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43638\/revisions\/43640"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43639"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}