{"id":41519,"date":"2015-07-18T22:06:15","date_gmt":"2015-07-18T19:06:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=41519"},"modified":"2015-07-18T22:13:48","modified_gmt":"2015-07-18T19:13:48","slug":"iranin-donusu-petrol-piyasasini-nasil-etkiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/iranin-donusu-petrol-piyasasini-nasil-etkiler\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Petrol Piyasas\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l Etkiler?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

N\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zler petrol piyasas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. K\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmelerden fiyatlar\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiren uzmanlar, mevcut ko\u015fullarda OPEC \u00fclkelerinin kolay kolay \u0130ran yer a\u00e7amayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde…<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n P5+1 \u00fclkeleriyle (BM G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi\u2019nin 5 daimi \u00fcyesi ve Almanya) n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya varmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dikkatler, petrol piyasalar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeniden k\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131nda yer almas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne sebep olabilir.<\/p>\n

Ancak \u0130ran\u2019dan bu konu i\"iranin-donusu-petrol-piyasasini-nasil-etkiler\"<\/a>le ilgili daha dengeli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Hen\u00fcz Haziran ay\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendiren petrol bakan\u0131 Bijan Zanganeh, anla\u015fman\u0131n mutlaka petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olacak anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini ve OPEC \u00fcyesi di\u011fer petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin kendi paylar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n girebilmesi i\u00e7in yer a\u00e7abilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u0130ranl\u0131 enerji uzman\u0131 Umud \u015eukri, mevcut ko\u015fullarda OPEC \u00fclkelerinin kolay kolay \u0130ran i\u00e7in yer a\u00e7amayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n hen\u00fcz fiyatlar\u0131 etkileyecek kapasitede \u00fcretime sahip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

“Ambargodan dolay\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretim kapasitesi d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2005\u2019te 4,5 milyon varil iken, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda 1,8 milyon varile kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2013 ile 2014 y\u0131llar\u0131 da ambargolar\u0131n hafiflemesinden dolay\u0131 2,5 milyon varile kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Ama ambargolar\u0131n kalkmas\u0131, hemen \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n piyasaya d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmez. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yerini di\u011fer \u00fclkeler, \u00f6zellikle Suudi Arabistan ve Irak petrol\u00fc alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00fclkeler, kendi paylar\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fka bir \u00fclkeye vermek istemez. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 konusunda k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6remeyiz ama uzun vadede olabilir. Fiyat\u0131n 50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00e7ok zor. Bilindi\u011fi gibi petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sadece \u00fcretim ile t\u00fcketim etkilemiyor. Daha fazla etkenler var. So\u011fuk havalar geldi\u011finde petrole daha fazla talep oluyor. Yak\u0131n gelecekte 60-80 dolar band\u0131nda fiyatlar sabitlenebilir. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ise \u015fimdiden s\u00f6ylemek \u00e7ok zor.”<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 Stratejik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Kurumu (USAK) Enerji G\u00fcvenli\u011fi Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Hasan Selim \u00d6zertem, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol piyasas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6nemli rol oynayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde:<\/p>\n

“P5+1 \u00fclkeleri ve \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131ld\u0131r devameden m\u00fczakerelerin petrol piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde olumlu etkileri oldu. \u00d6zellikle anla\u015fman\u0131n olumlu sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentiler, petrol piyasalar\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalar\u0131n k\u0131smi olarak azalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftu. Tabii en fazla konu\u015fulan hususlardan biri, anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 piyasan\u0131n nas\u0131l \u015fekil alaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu konuda hen\u00fcz net bir \u015fey s\u00f6ylemek g\u00fc\u00e7. Daha \u00e7ok beklentiler orta ve uzun vadede petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fckseklere \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n engellenece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik \u015fekilleniyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 milyon varillik petrol \u00fcretimini yeniden ihra\u00e7 etmesi s\u00f6zkonusu.\u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla birlikte bu konuda bir k\u0131s\u0131tlama gelmi\u015fti ve \u0130ran ihracat\u0131 ciddi anlamda azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir seneye dair bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda da \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi ne \u015fekilde devreye sokabilece\u011fi ve bu konuda hangi pazarlar\u0131 tekrar alabilece\u011fi konusunda tekrar tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131. ABD\u2019deki kaya petrol \u00fcretimi ile birlikte pazar\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 daralan K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri daha \u00e7ok Asya pazar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumunda. Bu \u015fekilde forma sokulmu\u015f bir piyasada \u0130ran yeni kontratlar\u0131 nas\u0131l imzalayacakt\u0131r, bu da \u00f6nemli bir husus. Ama \u015funu da ifade edelim, \u00f6zellikle b\u00f6lgesel piyasalarda bir rahatlama olabilir. Akdeniz piyasas\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u0130ran\u2019a yak\u0131n havzalarda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 biraz daha dengeli anlamda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru gidebilir. Ama k\u00fcresel anlamda \u015fu anda ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn beklenmesi s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc OPEC \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin da durumu yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fi ve son bir senedir 50 ile 70 dolar band\u0131 konusunda iyi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir m\u00fctabakata var\u0131lan bir fiyat\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Burada OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretimini azaltmas\u0131 ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin do\u011frudan \u0130ran\u2019a yer a\u00e7mas\u0131 \u00e7ok rahat olmayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle Suudi Arabistan ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin de b\u00fct\u00e7elerine \u00e7ok ciddi anlamda bir y\u00fck getiriyor. Burada \u00fcretimin k\u0131saltmas\u0131 demek \u00f6zellikle bu \u00fclkelerin elde edecekleri gelirlerin de azalmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n asl\u0131nda do\u011frudan \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etki olu\u015fturmayaca\u011f\u0131 ama petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerde oldu\u011fu gibi 100-120 dolarlar band\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede g\u00f6rmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli bir engel olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade edebiliriz.”<\/p>\n

Kaynak: Sputniknews<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.N\u00fckleer m\u00fczakerelerin sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zler petrol piyasas\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. K\u00fcresel petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmelerden fiyatlar\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendiren uzmanlar, mevcut ko\u015fullarda OPEC \u00fclkelerinin kolay kolay […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":41520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,44],"tags":[63,67,1009,2698,165,1333,59,79,2388,887,2522,1369],"views":950,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41519"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=41519"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41519\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41522,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41519\/revisions\/41522"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=41519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=41519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=41519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}