{"id":40674,"date":"2015-06-26T13:38:06","date_gmt":"2015-06-26T10:38:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/?p=40674"},"modified":"2015-06-26T13:38:06","modified_gmt":"2015-06-26T10:38:06","slug":"petrol-ve-dogalgaz-ile-enerji-ulasim-yollarini-denetleme-savaslari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/petrol-ve-dogalgaz-ile-enerji-ulasim-yollarini-denetleme-savaslari\/","title":{"rendered":"(Turkish) Petrol ve Do\u011falgaz ile Enerji Ula\u015f\u0131m Yollar\u0131n\u0131 Denetleme Sava\u015flar\u0131!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

(Bu metin, s\u00fcre s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 nedeniyle Kongre\u2019de \u00f6zet olarak sunulabilmi\u015ftir. Konu\u015fma sonras\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan baz\u0131 bilgiler de eklenmi\u015ftir.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye 20. Uluslararas\u0131 Petrol ve Do\u011fal Gaz Kongre ve Sergisi\u2019ni (IPETGAS 2015) d\u00fczenleyen TMMOB Petrol M\u00fchendisleri Odas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye Petrol Jeologlar\u0131 Derne\u011fi ve TMMOB Jeofizik M\u00fchendisleri Odas\u0131 y\u00f6neticilerine bu Kongre\u2019yi, b\u00f6lgemizde enerji sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde, d\u00fczenledikleri i\u00e7in kutluyor ve beni bir kez daha Kongre\u2019lerine g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerimi a\u00e7\u0131klamak \u00fczere \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rma inc\"petrol-ve-dogal-gaz-ile-enerji-ulasim-yollarini-denetleme-savaslari\"<\/a>eli\u011fini g\u00f6sterdikleri i\u00e7in te\u015fekk\u00fcrlerimi sunuyorum.<\/span><\/p>\n

Birinci kez \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131m 19. Kongre\u2019nizde sizlere, \u201c\u0130nsan\u0131n petrolle tan\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Birinci ve Son petrol payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda dile getirilenler\u201d konusunda \u00f6zetle bilgi sunmu\u015f ve konu\u015fmam\u0131, ABD\u2019li ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 gazeteci David Morse\u2019\u0131n 18 A\u011fustos 2005 g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlanan \u201cGelece\u011fin Sava\u015f\u0131\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131ndan \u015fu al\u0131nt\u0131y\u0131 yaparak tamamlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m: \u201c\u015eu anda Afrika\u2019n\u0131n Kuzey Do\u011fusunda Sudan denilen \u00fclkede bir gelecek sava\u015f\u0131 ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak silahlar gelece\u011fin silahlar\u0131 de\u011fil. \u2026 Hay\u0131r, bu sava\u015f kala\u015fnikovlar, sopalarla ve b\u0131\u00e7aklarla yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Sudan\u2019\u0131n Darfur diye an\u0131lan bat\u0131 b\u00f6lgesinde deve ve at s\u0131rt\u0131ndaki Arap milisleri taraf\u0131ndan tercih edilen taktikler yakma, ya\u011fmalama, had\u0131m etmek ve tecav\u00fczd\u00fcr. \u2026 Bu, b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kaynaklarla ilgili olan, ancak ta\u015feronlar taraf\u0131ndan d\u00f6v\u00fc\u015f\u00fclen bir kaynak sava\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. Bu Michael Klare\u2019in \u201cKan ve Petrol\u201d isimli kitab\u0131nda anlat\u0131lan ve bizim petrol kolik olmam\u0131z\u0131n muhte\u015fem \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olan bir sava\u015ft\u0131r. Ve \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen bir sava\u015f da de\u011fildir.[i]\u201d David Morse\u2019un 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131nda gelece\u011fin sava\u015f\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaynak sava\u015f\u0131 aradan 10 y\u0131l ge\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen \u015fiddetini artt\u0131rarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte veya daha do\u011fru bir tan\u0131mla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. Bu nedenle ben de bug\u00fcn sizlere \u201cPetrol ve Do\u011fal Gaz Kaynaklar\u0131 ile Enerji Ula\u015f\u0131m Yollar\u0131n\u0131 Denetleme Sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n Ekonomik ve Stratejik Nedenlerini\u201d anlatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. 20 inci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ve giderek yo\u011funla\u015fan ve g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde doru\u011funa t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f bulunan \u201ckaynak sava\u015flar\u0131\u201d sadece petrol ve do\u011fal gaza y\u00f6nelik olarak ya\u015fanmamaktad\u0131r. Kaynak sava\u015flar\u0131 kapsam\u0131na, stratejik maden ve mineraller, tatl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131, verimli tar\u0131m arazileri ile tar\u0131msal tohumlar da dahil edilmi\u015f bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu kaynaklara y\u00f6nelik sava\u015flar birbirinden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnseler de asl\u0131nda bir b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn birbirini tamamlayan par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131rlar. B\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn ad\u0131 ise \u201cd\u00fcnyaya ve kaynaklar\u0131na egemen olmakt\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ancak ben bug\u00fcn konu\u015fmam\u0131 sadece petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve enerji ula\u015f\u0131m yollar\u0131 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131m, yeri geldik\u00e7e di\u011fer alanlara da sadece de\u011finip ge\u00e7ece\u011fim. Di\u011fer kaynak sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131 ile enerji ula\u015f\u0131m yollar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme sava\u015flar\u0131 kadar karma\u015f\u0131k ve ac\u0131mas\u0131zca s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc okudu\u011fum bir\u00e7ok kitap ve makaledeki bilgiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda rahat\u00e7a s\u00f6yleyebilirim. Petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme kavgas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik nedenlerinin k\u00f6keninde \u201csanayi devrimi\u201d ile ba\u015flayan insan ve hayvan adale g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn mekanik ara\u00e7lar kullan\u0131m\u0131 ve bu mekanik ara\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in gereken daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak enerji aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 vard\u0131r. ABD vatanda\u015f\u0131 tarih\u00e7i Paul Kennedy\u2019nin dilimize \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck G\u00fc\u00e7lerin Y\u00fckseli\u015f ve \u00c7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fleri\u201d olarak \u00e7evrilen kitab\u0131nda, sanayi devrimi sonras\u0131nda, 1750-1900 aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7en 150 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde, d\u00fcnya imalat sanayii \u00fcretiminin k\u0131talar aras\u0131nda nas\u0131l bir eksen kaymas\u0131na u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde ortaya koymu\u015ftur. Paul Kennedy\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerin yan\u0131na 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 verileri de ekleyerek d\u00fczenledi\u011fim bilgiler Tablo 1 de yer almaktad\u0131r. Tablo 1 i incelemeye ve de\u011ferlendirmeye ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce 1750-2010 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusundaki geli\u015fmelere de k\u0131saca de\u011finmek istiyorum.\u00a0<\/strong>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n n\u00fcfusu sanayi devrimi ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 1750 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 750 milyon d\u00fczeyinde idi ve 1900 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde 1,600 milyona ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131[ii]. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda 6,895 milyon olan d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 7,300 milyonu a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[iii]. D\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 2050 de 9,500 milyonu ve 2062 y\u0131l\u0131nda da 10 milyar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir[iv]. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle 1750-1900 aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu yakla\u015f\u0131k 900 milyon ki\u015fi veya y\u00fczde 113 artm\u0131\u015fken, 1900-2015 aras\u0131ndaki 115 y\u0131lda 5,700 milyon ki\u015fi veya y\u00fczde 356 gibi s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir boyutta b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olacakt\u0131r. 1890 l\u0131 y\u0131llardan ba\u015flayarak petrol\u00fcn ve daha sonra da do\u011fal gaz\u0131n temel enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 konumuna y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun 5,700 milyon ki\u015fi artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fmedir. Bu boyuttaki bir n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fta enerji olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm maddelere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131\u011f gibi bir talep patlamas\u0131na da yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015eimdi bu bilgileri ak\u0131lda tutarak Tablo 1 deki verileri inceleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 1<\/strong>1750-2010 d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitli \u00fclke ve b\u00f6lgelerinde imalat sanayilerinin d\u00fcnya \u00fcretiminden ald\u0131klar\u0131 pay ve 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda ayn\u0131 \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnya GSY\u0130H\u2019daki paylar\u0131 % olarak<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00dclkeler<\/td>\n1750<\/td>\n1900<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n2010 GSY\u0130H %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AVRUPA (**)<\/strong><\/td>\n23.2<\/td>\n62.0<\/strong><\/td>\n19.21<\/strong><\/td>\n19.21<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u0130ngiltere<\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n18.5<\/strong><\/td>\n2.46<\/td>\n3.58<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 Avusturya-Macar.<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\n4.7<\/td>\n1.00<\/td>\n0.67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 Fransa<\/td>\n4.0<\/td>\n6.8<\/td>\n2.78<\/td>\n4.05<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 Almanya (*)<\/td>\n2.9<\/td>\n13.3<\/strong><\/td>\n6.81<\/td>\n5.19<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 \u0130talya (*)<\/td>\n2.4<\/td>\n2.5<\/td>\n3.46<\/td>\n3.26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0\u00a0 Rusya<\/td>\n5.0<\/td>\n8.8<\/td>\n2.34<\/td>\n2.34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABD<\/td>\n0.1<\/td>\n23.6<\/strong><\/td>\n18.74<\/strong><\/td>\n23.06<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japonya<\/td>\n3.8<\/td>\n2.4<\/td>\n9.71<\/td>\n8.63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya<\/td>\n73.0<\/td>\n11.2<\/td>\nv.h.<\/td>\nv.h.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7in<\/td>\n32.8<\/strong><\/td>\n6.2<\/strong><\/td>\n17.57<\/strong><\/td>\n9.37<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hindistan-Pakistan<\/td>\n24.5<\/strong><\/td>\n1.7<\/td>\n(2.39) 2.69<\/td>\nHind. 2.73<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

(*) 1750 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in Almanya ve \u0130talya verileri her iki \u00fclkenin ulusal birli\u011fini kurmadan \u00f6nceki prenslikler ve di\u011fer k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck devlet\u00e7ikleri kapsamaktad\u0131r. (**) Avrupa i\u00e7in 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 verileri Avro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerini kapsamaktad\u0131r dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 1750 Avrupa tan\u0131m\u0131ndan daha dar bir kapsama alan\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermektedir. (v.h.) veri hesaplanmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0Paul Kennedy The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers sayfa 149 ve World Development Indicators 2012 The World Bank Table 4.2 sayfa 218-220.<\/p>\n

Sanayi Devrimi ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce imalat sanayi olarak tan\u0131mlanabilecek \u00fcretimler, \u00e7ok geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde insan ve hayvan adale g\u00fcc\u00fcne dayanan ve enerji olarak da odun ve odun k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn sadece maden indirgeme i\u00e7in kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir imalat sanayi \u00fcretim yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7ermektedir. Bu nedenle de \u00c7in ile Hindistan-Pakistan\u2019\u0131 i\u00e7eren Hint Yar\u0131madas\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus yo\u011funlu\u011fu nedeni ile d\u00fcnya imalat sanayiinin s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 32.8 ve 24.5 ve toplamda y\u00fczde 57.3 \u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcretebilmekteydi. T\u00fcm Avrupa k\u0131tas\u0131nda yerle\u015fik \u00fclkeler ise toplam olarak ancak y\u00fczde 23.2 ye eri\u015febilmekteydi. Sanayi Devrimi ile birlikte ba\u015fta k\u00f6m\u00fcr, daha sonra petrol \u0131s\u0131s\u0131 ile elde edilen buhar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn geli\u015ftirilen mekanik aksama uygulanmas\u0131 sonucu Avrupa 1900 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya imalat sanayiinin y\u00fczde 62.0 ini, ABD ise y\u00fczde 23.6 s\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretir noktaya ula\u015fm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Sanayi Devrimi\u2019ni yapamayan \u00c7in ve Hindistan Yar\u0131madas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n paylar\u0131 ise s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 6.2 ve y\u00fczde 1.7 ye d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde, 20 inci y\u00fczy\u0131l boyunca, sanayile\u015fmenin ve teknolojinin di\u011fer \u00fclkelere yay\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucunda, d\u00fcnya imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminde Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 19.21 e ve ABD\u2019nin pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 18.74 e gerilerken, \u00c7in\u2019in pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 17.57 e t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Di\u011fer bir deyi\u015fle \u00c7in imalat sanayii \u00fcretiminde Avro B\u00f6lgesi ve ABD ile ba\u015fa ba\u015f duruma gelmi\u015ftir. Bu noktada hemen bir hususun alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek isterim, Avro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkeler ve ABD\u2019de refah\u0131n artmas\u0131na paralel olarak emek pahal\u0131 bir girdi haline geldi\u011fi ve \u00e7evre duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in bu \u00fclkeler imalat sanayiinin bir\u00e7ok dal\u0131nda \u00fcretimlerini ba\u015fta \u00c7in ve Hindistan olmak \u00fczere n\u00fcfusu yo\u011fun \u00fclkelere kayd\u0131rm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile \u00c7in, Hindistan ve di\u011fer n\u00fcfusu yo\u011fun \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnya imalat sanayiindeki paylar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bu \u00fcretim kayd\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131n da az\u0131msanmayacak etkisi vard\u0131r. 20 inci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6zellikle ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren, geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerin hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnya GSY\u0130H toplam\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3 \u00fc tar\u0131m, y\u00fczde 16 s\u0131 imalat sanayii ve yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 72 si de hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan \u00fcretilmi\u015ftir. O nedenle Tablo 1 i daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 okuyabilmek i\u00e7in son s\u00fctununa \u00fclkelerin d\u00fcnya GSY\u0130H daki paylar\u0131n\u0131 dahil etme gere\u011fini duydum. Tablo 1 in son s\u00fctunundan da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, Avro B\u00f6lgesi d\u00fcnya GSY\u0130H\u2019dan y\u00fczde 19.21 pay al\u0131rken, ABD nin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay y\u00fczde 23.06 ve \u00c7in\u2019in pay\u0131 ise 9.37 dir. Bu da \u00c7in\u2019de hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri boyutunun \u00e7ok gerisinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.\u00a0<\/span>ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik GSY\u0130H rakamlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin IMF\u2019nin tahminlerine g\u00f6z at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olmaya y\u00f6nelik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7eki\u015fme i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu konudaki veriler Tablo 2 de yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 2<\/strong>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n izleyece\u011fi yol<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00dclkeler<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n2020<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cari Fiyatlarla milyar $<\/td>\nPPPUluslararas\u0131 milyar $<\/td>\nCari Fiyatlarla milyar $<\/td>\nPPPUluslararas\u0131 Milyar $<\/td>\nCari Fiyatlarla milyar $<\/td>\nPPPUluslararas\u0131 milyar $<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7in<\/td>\n9,469.1<\/td>\n16,173.3<\/td>\n11,211.9<\/td>\n18,975.9<\/td>\n16,157.1<\/td>\n28,229.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hindistan<\/td>\n1,875.2<\/td>\n6,783.7<\/td>\n2,308.0<\/td>\n7,996.6<\/td>\n3,639.8<\/td>\n12,708.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avrupa Birl.<\/td>\n17,954.7<\/td>\n18,011.1<\/td>\n16,449.2<\/td>\n19,035.1<\/td>\n20,442.7<\/td>\n23,002.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Almanya<\/td>\n3,731.4<\/td>\n3,610.1<\/td>\n3,413.5<\/td>\n3,815.5<\/td>\n4,105.1<\/td>\n4,500.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABD<\/td>\n16,768.1<\/td>\n16,768.1<\/td>\n18,124.7<\/td>\n18,124.7<\/td>\n22,488.6<\/td>\n22,488.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japonya<\/td>\n4,919.6<\/td>\n4,685.3<\/td>\n4,210.4<\/td>\n4,843.1<\/td>\n4,933.5<\/td>\n5,521.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Kaynak<\/strong>: IMF veri taban\u0131<\/p>\n

Tablo 2 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, \u00c7in, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re hesaplanm\u0131\u015f GSY\u0130H de\u011ferleri ile 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019i yakalam\u0131\u015f, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminlerinde \u00f6ne ge\u00e7mi\u015f ve 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda da a\u00e7\u0131k ara \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ece\u011fi IMF\u2019nin uzmanlar\u0131nca hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re hesaplanan GSY\u0130H ile Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ni de a\u00e7\u0131k ara ge\u00e7ece\u011fi ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde tahmin edilmektedir. ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve de\u011ferlendirme \u015firketlerinden IHS\u2019n\u0131n 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re, \u00c7in\u2019in cari dolarla ifade edilen GSY\u0130H\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019yi ge\u00e7ece\u011fi tarih olarak 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmektedir[1]. Rapora g\u00f6re, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile beslenecek \u00c7in ekonomisi 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda 28,250 milyar dolara ula\u015facak ve ayn\u0131 y\u0131l 27,310 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131 beklenen ABD GSY\u0130H\u2019n\u0131 da ge\u00e7mi\u015f olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00f6yle bir ekonomik geli\u015fme g\u00f6stermesi daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde enerji ve bu ba\u011flamda da petrol ve do\u011fal gaz yan\u0131nda maden ve mineral t\u00fcketmesi ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilecektir. Ayr\u0131ca bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00c7in\u2019de hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de kayda de\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck geli\u015fmelerin yer almas\u0131 beklenmektedir. D\u00fcnya\u2019n\u0131n petrol, do\u011fal gaz, maden ve stratejik mineral rezervlerinin artmas\u0131n\u0131n ancak \u015fimdiye kadar ke\u015ffedilmemi\u015f teknolojiler kullan\u0131larak daha verimli i\u015fletilmesi veya hen\u00fcz ke\u015ffedilmemi\u015f rezervler kald\u0131 ise bunlar\u0131n bulunabilmesi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olma yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilmesi ancak mevcut rezervlerin kullan\u0131m\u0131ndan daha fazla pay alabilmekle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilecektir. Bu ise bu kaynaklar\u0131n bulundu\u011fu \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde ekonomik ve politik g\u00fc\u00e7 sahibi olabilmekle ba\u015far\u0131labilecektir. Esasen i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz s\u00fcrece ister yar\u0131\u015f, isterseniz \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc veya a\u00e7\u0131k sava\u015f deyin d\u00fcnya onu ya\u015famaktad\u0131r. Bu noktada incelemekte oldu\u011fumuz \u00fclkelerin mevcut ve gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik birincil enerji taleplerinin ve bu ba\u011flamda da petrol ve do\u011fal gaz taleplerinin ne boyutta b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin olarak uzman kurulu\u015flar\u0131n tahminlere g\u00f6z atmak gerekir. Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin birincil enerji taleplerinde 2010-2035 d\u00f6neminde yer alacak de\u011fi\u015fmeler Tablo 3 de g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 3<\/strong>Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin 2010-2035 d\u00f6neminde birincil enerji taleplerinde yer almas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimler (milyon ton petrol e\u015fde\u011feri olarak)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00dclkeler<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n2035<\/td>\nY\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABD<\/td>\n2,214<\/strong><\/td>\n2,187<\/strong><\/td>\n~0.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AB<\/td>\n1,713<\/td>\n1,670<\/strong><\/td>\n-0.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japonya<\/td>\n497<\/td>\n447<\/td>\n-0.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya<\/td>\n710<\/td>\n875<\/td>\n0.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7in<\/td>\n2,416<\/strong><\/td>\n3,872<\/strong><\/td>\n1.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hindistan<\/td>\n691<\/td>\n1,516<\/strong><\/td>\n3.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D\u00fcnya<\/td>\n12,730<\/td>\n17,197<\/td>\n1.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Table 2.3 sayfa 58 den al\u0131nt\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Tablo 3 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, \u00c7in birincil enerji t\u00fcketiminde 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019ni ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumdad\u0131r ve 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cYeni Politikalar Senaryosu\u201dna g\u00f6re, ABD\u2019den y\u00fczde 77 daha fazla birincil enerji kullanaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilmektedir. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ise 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda birincil enerji t\u00fcketiminde Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne \u00e7ok yakla\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Tablo 3 ABD, AB ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji kullan\u0131m verimlili\u011fi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile 25 y\u0131lda birincil enerji t\u00fcketimlerinde kayda de\u011fer azalma beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00c7in ve Hindistan dahil di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde de enerji kullan\u0131m verimlili\u011finde art\u0131\u015flar olacak olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na birincil enerji t\u00fcketimlerini daha y\u00fcksek boyuta \u00e7\u0131karabilmek i\u00e7in toplam kullan\u0131mlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015f yapmalar\u0131 beklenmektedir. Bu Tablo petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m kavgas\u0131na yeterli \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmamaktad\u0131r. Zira birincil enerji tan\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7ine petrol ve do\u011fal gaz\u0131n yan\u0131nda k\u00f6m\u00fcr, su, n\u00fckleer, ve \u00e7evre dostu enerji t\u00fcrleri de girmektedir. O nedenle petrol ve do\u011fal gaz konusundaki geli\u015fmeleri Tablo 4 de sunuyorum. Tablo 4 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck ham petrol talebinde \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin yar\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde iken 2035 e gelindi\u011finde ABD\u2019den y\u00fczde 20 daha fazla ham petrol kullan\u0131r noktaya gelecektir. Ancak, 2035 te ABD g\u00fcnl\u00fck talebinin sadece 3.7 milyon varilini ithal ederken \u00c7in 12.1 milyon varilini veya y\u00fczde 80 ini yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan getirmek durumunda kalacakt\u0131r. Avrupa Birli\u011fi ile Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da 2035 de y\u00fczde 92 e \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Bu boyutlar ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k yan\u0131nda bu miktar petrol\u00fcn gelece\u011fi suyollar\u0131 yan\u0131nda boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi riskinin de y\u00fckselmesi anlam\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkeler b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketici konumunda olan \u00c7in, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, Hindistan ve ABD \u00fczerinde etkin bir pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcne de sahip konuma gelebilecektir, e\u011fer bu b\u00fcy\u00fck devletlerden bir veya ikisine politik ve ekonomik ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 olmaz ise! 2010-2035 d\u00f6neminde \u00c7in\u2019in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n do\u011fal gaz talebinde de s\u00fcratli bir art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Do\u011fal gazda da petrol gibi d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k her iki \u00fclke i\u00e7in de ciddi boyutta artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 4<\/strong>Se\u00e7ilmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin 2010 ve 2035 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ve do\u011fal gaz taleplerinde beklenen geli\u015fmeler<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0petrol<\/strong>\u00a0talebi(milyon varil g\u00fcn)<\/td>\nG\u00fcnl\u00fck\u00a0do\u011fal gaz<\/strong>\u00a0talebi(milyar metre k\u00fcp)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00dclkeler<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n2035<\/td>\n2035 \u0130thal<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n2035<\/td>\nDe\u011fi\u015fim<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABD<\/td>\n17.6<\/td>\n12.6<\/strong><\/td>\n3.7<\/td>\n680<\/td>\n766<\/strong><\/td>\n86<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AB<\/td>\n11.6<\/td>\n8.7<\/strong><\/td>\n8.0<\/strong><\/td>\n536<\/td>\n618<\/strong><\/td>\n82<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Japonya<\/td>\n4.3<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\n104<\/td>\n123<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya<\/td>\n3.1<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n466<\/td>\n549<\/td>\n83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7in<\/td>\n9.0<\/td>\n15.1<\/strong><\/td>\n12.1<\/strong><\/td>\n110<\/td>\n544<\/strong><\/td>\n434<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hindistan<\/td>\n3.4<\/td>\n7.5<\/strong><\/td>\n6.9<\/strong><\/td>\n64<\/td>\n178<\/strong><\/td>\n115<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D\u00fcnya<\/td>\n87.4<\/td>\n99.7<\/td>\n\u2026<\/td>\n3,307<\/td>\n4,955<\/td>\n1,648<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Kaynak: IEA, WEO-2012 Table 3.2 ve Table 4.2 den yararlan\u0131larak d\u00fczenlenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Petrol ve do\u011fal gaz talebinde 2010-2035 d\u00f6nemindeki geli\u015fme beklentilerini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra san\u0131r\u0131m \u015fimdi de gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik olarak hangi \u00fclkeler ham petrol ve do\u011fal gaz sunumunda \u00f6n planda olacaklar k\u0131saca ona g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. Petrol rezervleri boyutu ile petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerin \u00f6nde gelenlerinin durumu Tablo 5 de yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 5<\/strong>\u00dclkeler itibariyle 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda petrol rezervlerinin durumu (milyar varil olarak)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S. Arabistan<\/td>\n267.02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Venezuela<\/td>\n211.17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kanada<\/td>\n173.63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130ran<\/td>\n151.17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Irak<\/td>\n143.10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kuveyt<\/td>\n104.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B.A.E.<\/td>\n97.80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya<\/td>\n80.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Libya<\/td>\n47.10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nijerya<\/td>\n37.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kazakistan<\/td>\n30.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ABD<\/td>\n26.54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Katar<\/td>\n25.41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7in<\/td>\n20.35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brezilya<\/td>\n13.99<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Angola<\/td>\n13.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cezayir<\/td>\n12.20<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
80 \u00fclke<\/td>\n<10.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
117 \u00fclke<\/td>\n00.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><\/td>\n0.27<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47.00<\u00fclkeler toplam<\/td>\n1,274.99<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47.00 + \u00fclkeler\/D\u00fcnya %<\/strong><\/td>\n85.57<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ortado\u011fu<\/td>\n788.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D\u00fcnya<\/td>\n1,490.00<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0EIA, OPEC ve Wikipedia<\/p>\n

Tablo 5 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, petrol rezervlerinin d\u00fcnyadaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 son derece dengesiz bir yap\u0131da olup, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle d\u00fcnyada varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 saptanm\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilir petrol varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 1,490 milyar varil d\u00fczeyinde oldu\u011fu tahmin edilmektedir. Tabloda yer alan \u00fclkelerin petrol rezervleri konusunda \u00e7e\u015fitli kurulu\u015flar\u0131n veri tabanlar\u0131nda bazen \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck, bazen de \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck farkl\u0131l\u0131klar yer alabilmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6rnek Venezuela\u2019d\u0131r. OPEC ve Wikipedia Venezuela\u2019n\u0131n ham petrol rezervini 298.4 milyar varil olarak verirken, ABD\u2019nin Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi (EIA) Venezuela\u2019n\u0131n Orinoco b\u00f6lgesindeki rezervin 513 milyar varil oldu\u011funu ve \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck a\u011f\u0131r petrol oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrmektedir. Tablo 5 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere rezerv varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 47 milyar varilin \u00fczerinde olan dokuz \u00fclkenin sahip oldu\u011fu toplam rezerv 1,274.99 veya d\u00fcnya petrol rezervinin y\u00fczde 85.57 sini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile 2035 lere uzanan yolculukta d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ve bu ba\u011flamda da \u00c7in, Avrupa Birli\u011fi, Hindistan, Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin petrol a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamada s\u00f6z konusu dokuz \u00fclke \u00f6ncelikli i\u015flev sahibi olacakt\u0131r. Ancak bu demek de\u011fildir ki, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck petrol veya do\u011fal gaz rezervlerine sahip \u00fclkeler enerji payla\u015f\u0131m kavgas\u0131ndan etkilenmeyecekler. Aksine, onlar da kavgan\u0131n i\u00e7inde rol almaya devam edeceklerdir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 6<\/strong>\u00dclkeler itibariyle 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda do\u011falgaz rezervleri (milyar metre k\u00fcp)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130ran<\/td>\n33,600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rusya<\/td>\n32,900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Katar<\/td>\n25,630<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S. Arabistan<\/td>\n7,167<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
B. A. Emirlikleri<\/td>\n6,071<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A.B.D.<\/td>\n5,997<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nijerya<\/td>\n5,210<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Venezuela<\/td>\n4,708<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cezayir<\/td>\n4,502<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Irak<\/td>\n3,170<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kazakistan<\/td>\n2,832<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00fcrkmenistan<\/td>\n2,832<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Endonezya<\/td>\n2,659<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Avrupa Birli\u011fi<\/td>\n2,476<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Malezya<\/td>\n2,350<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c7in<\/td>\n2,265<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Norve\u00e7<\/td>\n1,841<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Liste toplam\u0131<\/td>\n146,210<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4,500<b\u00fcy\u00fckler<\/strong><\/td>\n125,785<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D\u00fcnya Toplam\u0131<\/td>\n175,400<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Liste\/D\u00fcnya %<\/td>\n83.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130lk 9 \u00fclke\/D\u00fcnya %<\/strong><\/td>\n71.7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><\/td>\n0.218<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0IEA-2012 ce CIA-World Factbooks<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal gaz rezervlerinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, Tablo 6 dan da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi, petrol kadar dengesiz bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm i\u00e7indedir. Tablo 6 dan da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, rezerv varl\u0131klar\u0131 4,500 milyar metrek\u00fcpten fazla olan dokuz \u00fclkenin rezervleri toplam\u0131 d\u00fcnya rezervlerinin y\u00fczde 71.7 sine e\u015fit bulunmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile bu dokuz \u00fclke Tablo 4 de yer alan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketici olan Avrupa Birli\u011fi, \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n do\u011fal gaz susam\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gidermede \u00f6nemli rol \u00fcstleneceklerdir. Petrol\u00fcn veya do\u011fal gaz\u0131n boru hatlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tankerlerle d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 suyollar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u201cdarbo\u011faz-choke points\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlanan bo\u011fazlar daima b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejik \u00f6neme sahip olmu\u015f ve bu nedenle de d\u00fcnyaya egemen olmak isteyen g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan denetim alt\u0131nda tutulmak istenmi\u015ftir. 2035 e giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te bu darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n \u00f6nemi, Harita 1 ve Tablo 7 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere \u00e7ok artacak ve kontrol alt\u0131nda bulundurmak \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Harita 1<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"harita<\/p>\n

\n

Kaynak:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>IEA Oil Supply Security 2007\u00a0<\/em>Global Oil Choke Points Harita 1 de yer alan rakamlar\u0131 ve de\u011fi\u015fim boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 daha iyi g\u00f6rebilmek \u00fczere, onlar\u0131 Tablo 7 de ayr\u0131ca sunuyorum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Tablo 7<\/strong>Darbo\u011fazlardan 2006 ve 2030 da petrol trafi\u011fi Milyon varil\/g\u00fcn<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Darbo\u011fazlar<\/td>\n2006<\/td>\n2030<\/td>\nArt\u0131\u015f %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz<\/td>\n13.3<\/td>\n35.5<\/td>\n164.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Malakka<\/td>\n12.0<\/td>\n21.1<\/td>\n75.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S\u00fcvey\u015f<\/td>\n3.9<\/td>\n6.2<\/td>\n59.0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bab-el-Mendeb<\/td>\n3.5<\/td>\n5.7<\/td>\n62.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131<\/td>\n3.0<\/td>\n2.2<\/td>\n-26.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0Harita 1 deki veriler ve T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131 2006 i\u00e7in Jean-Paul Rodrigue\u2019in dip nottaki makalesi ve 2030 i\u00e7in IHS \u201cNew Realities in Oil Transit through the Turkish Straits\u201d Special Report 2011.<\/p>\n

Tablo 7 de yer alan 2006 verileri konusunda farkl\u0131 kaynaklar de\u011fi\u015fik rakamlar da verebilmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda an\u0131lmaya de\u011fer \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalardan birisi Jean-Paul Rodrigue\u2019in 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan makalesidir[2]. Tablo 7 T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki di\u011fer bo\u011fazlardaki petrol trafi\u011finin \u00e7ok ciddi boyutta artaca\u011f\u0131 tahminlerini i\u00e7ermektedir. T\u00fcrk Bo\u011fazlar\u0131ndaki petrol trafi\u011finin d\u00fc\u015fmesine y\u00f6nelik olarak ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclen savlar ise, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 giderek Balt\u0131k K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ne y\u00f6nlendirmesi ve boru hatlar\u0131 g\u00f6sterilmektedir. Hazar Havzas\u0131 petrollerinin d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131nda da boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6neminin artaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilmektedir. Petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131 ile enerji ula\u015f\u0131m yollar\u0131n\u0131 denetim alt\u0131nda tutmak isteyecek g\u00fc\u00e7ler ile enerji kaynaklar\u0131na sahip \u00fclkelerin genel bir foto\u011fraf\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ektikten sonra \u015fimdi izlenmekte olan politikalara ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalara k\u0131saca g\u00f6z atabiliriz. II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 da I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 gibi temelinde bir kaynak payla\u015f\u0131m sava\u015f\u0131 idi. Ancak, gerek yenenler ve gerek yenilenler ba\u015fta enerji, maden ve mineraller olmak \u00fczere yo\u011fun kaynak t\u00fcketim a\u015famas\u0131na girmi\u015flerdi, o nedenle de kaynaklar\u0131 denetlemenin stratejik \u00f6nemini \u00e7ok iyi bilmekteydiler. O d\u00f6nemin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini kazananlar y\u00f6n\u00fcnden en iyi yans\u0131tan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ise ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Siyaset Planlama uzman\u0131 George Kennan taraf\u0131ndan, Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ile ba\u015flayan \u201cso\u011fuk sava\u015f\u201d\u0131n da etkisi ile, 24 \u015eubat 1948 tarihinde \u015f\u00f6yle dile getirilmi\u015ftir: \u201cD\u00fcnyadaki servetin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 50 sine sahibiz, n\u00fcfusunun ise sadece y\u00fczde 6.3 \u00fcne. \u2026 Bu durumda, k\u0131skan\u00e7l\u0131klar\u0131n ve i\u00e7erlemelerin hedefinde olmamam\u0131z beklenemez. Gelecek d\u00f6nemlerde bizim ger\u00e7ek hedefimiz bu orant\u0131s\u0131z durumu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmemize olanak verecek ili\u015fkiler yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kurmak olmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u2026 Bunu yapabilmek i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00fcn duygusall\u0131klardan ve hayal kurmaktan vaz ge\u00e7meli ve her yerde dikkatimizi \u00f6ncelikli ulusal hedeflerimize yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. \u2026 \u0130nsan haklar\u0131, ya\u015fam standard\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek ve demokratikle\u015fme gibi soyut ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmayan s\u00f6ylemlerden vaz ge\u00e7meliyiz. Do\u011frudan g\u00fc\u00e7 kavram\u0131 ile u\u011fra\u015fmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z g\u00fcn \u00e7ok uzakta de\u011fil. O g\u00fcn geldi\u011finde idealist\u00e7e sloganlar taraf\u0131ndan ne kadar az engellenirsek o kadar iyi olacakt\u0131r. \u201cGelecekte Uzak Do\u011fu b\u00f6lgesindeki etkimizin \u00f6ncelikle askeri ve ekonomik olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131zda tutmal\u0131y\u0131z. Pasifik ve Uzak Do\u011fu\u2019da hangi alanlar\u0131n bizim g\u00fcvenli\u011fimiz i\u00e7in mutlak ya\u015famsal \u00f6nemde oldu\u011funu \u00e7ok dikkatli bir bi\u00e7imde belirlemeli ve bu b\u00f6lgelerin kontrol edebilece\u011fimiz veya g\u00fcvenebilece\u011fimiz ellerde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak politikalar \u00fczerinde yo\u011funla\u015fmal\u0131y\u0131z.[3]\u201d George Kennan, 1948 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnya serveti i\u00e7indeki yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 50 lik dengesiz pay\u0131n\u0131 koruyabilmesi i\u00e7in izlemesi gereken reel politikan\u0131n ana hatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k \u015fekilde dile getirmi\u015ftir. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 D. Eisenhower (1890-1969), 5 Ocak 1957 g\u00fcn\u00fc kendi ad\u0131 ile an\u0131lacak doktrini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmas\u0131nda \u015fu hususlar\u0131 vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; \u201c\u2026 Son zamanlarda bir zamanlar b\u00f6lgede (Ortado\u011fu\u2019da) etkisi olan Bat\u0131 Avrupa Devletleri\u2019nin de kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar oldu. Ekim (1956) ay\u0131nda \u0130srail\u2019e b\u00fcy\u00fck\u00e7e bir sald\u0131r\u0131 olmas\u0131 bu \u00fclke ile Arap \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki temel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klar uluslararas\u0131 kom\u00fcnizm taraf\u0131ndan istismar edildi. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6neticileri uzun s\u00fcre Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya h\u00e2kim olma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olmu\u015flard\u0131r. Bu \u00c7arl\u0131k zaman\u0131 i\u00e7in oldu\u011fu kadar, Bol\u015fevikler d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in de bir ger\u00e7ektir. \u2026 Bu olaylar Rusya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini etkilememektedir, kimse Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu Rusya\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal i\u00e7in \u00fcs olarak kullanmay\u0131 planlamamaktad\u0131r. ABD b\u00f6yle bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceyi asla bir an bile akl\u0131na getirmemi\u015ftir. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019da veya d\u00fcnyan\u0131n herhangi bir yerinde ABD\u2019den korkmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir neden yoktur, yeter ki bu \u00fclkenin y\u00f6neticileri kendileri sald\u0131r\u0131ya ba\u015fvurmas\u0131nlar. \u2026 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki ilgisi tamamen g\u00fc\u00e7 g\u00f6sterme politikas\u0131d\u0131r. \u2026 25 May\u0131s 1950 de (ABD, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa) \u00dc\u00e7l\u00fc Deklerasyon yay\u0131nlad\u0131lar, bunu 31 Ekim 1950 de Ba\u015fkan\u2019\u0131n Suudi Arabistan Kral\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvence vermesi izledi. Bunlara ek olarak, 9 Nisan 1956 tarihinde Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ile ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelecek her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 Anayasa\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n verdi\u011fi yetkiler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Benim 29 Kas\u0131m 1956 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00fczere \u0130ran, Irak, Pakistan veya T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin politik ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik tehditleri ABD taraf\u0131ndan en ciddi \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirecektir.[4]\u201d Eisenhower\u2019in bu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, M\u0131s\u0131r Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Nas\u0131r\u2019\u0131n 26 Temmuz 1956 g\u00fcn\u00fc S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131 millile\u015ftirme karar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u0130ngiltere, Fransa ve \u0130srail\u2019in M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131na ABD ve Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin tepki vermeleri \u00fczerine geri \u00e7ekilmek zorunda kalmalar\u0131 ve Aswan Baraj\u0131 in\u015fas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerine Nas\u0131r\u2019\u0131n baraj yap\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ve \u00c7in\u2019den destek istemesinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu politik ve psikolojik gerginlik ortamda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n temelinde Ortado\u011fu petrol varl\u0131klar\u0131na Sovyetler Birli\u011fini el koymamas\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkelerinden bir veya birka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n Sovyet Rusya yanl\u0131s\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netilmemesi iste\u011fi yatmaktad\u0131r. Eisenhower doktrini, 1970 lerde iki petrol \u015fokunun art arda ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin Afganistan\u2019\u0131 i\u015fgal etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jimmy Carter taraf\u0131ndan 23 Ocak 1980 g\u00fcn\u00fc Kongre\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cBirli\u011fin Durumu\u201d konu\u015fmas\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olarak yenilenmi\u015ftir. Ba\u015fkan Carter\u2019in konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ilgili b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn T\u00fcrk\u00e7e \u00e7evirisi \u015f\u00f6yledir; \u201cAfganistan\u2019daki Sovyet askeri birliklerinin halen tehdit etmekte oldu\u011fu B\u00f6lge (Ortado\u011fu) b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stratejik \u00f6neme sahiptir; d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilir petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7te ikisine sahip bulunmaktad\u0131r. Sovyetlerin Afganistan\u2019a egemen olma \u00e7abalar\u0131 Sovyet askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc Hint Okyanusu\u2019na 500 kilometre (300 mil) ve dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile d\u00fcnyaya en fazla petrol ak\u0131tan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yakla\u015ft\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi stratejik bir konumu sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. O nedenle bu durum, Ortado\u011fu petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn serbest\u00e7e sevkiyat\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehdit olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. \u2026 Bizim tutumumuz a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a bilinmelidir: b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131 herhangi bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc ele ge\u00e7irme giri\u015fimi ABD\u2019nin ya\u015famsal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na sald\u0131r\u0131 olarak kabul edilecek ve bu sald\u0131r\u0131 askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 dahil gerekli her t\u00fcrl\u00fc vas\u0131ta ile def edilecektir.[5]\u201d Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama ile ABD, Ortado\u011fu petrollerine ili\u015fkin \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in gerekirse sava\u015fabilece\u011fini de vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ba\u015fkan Carter\u2019in bu konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Zbigniew Brzezinski\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 da belirtilmektedir[6]. ABD Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019nda 1989-1993 d\u00f6neminde Politika M\u00fcste\u015far Yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revinde ve George W. Bush\u2019un ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u0131llarda, 2001-2005 aras\u0131nda Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131 g\u00f6revinde bulunan Paul Wolfowitz, 18 \u015eubat 1992 tarihinde yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Scooter Libby ile birlikte, daha sonra kendi ad\u0131 ile an\u0131lacak olan ve 1994-1999 mali y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan Savunma Planlama Rehberi\u2019ni haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu rehber bas\u0131na s\u0131zd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in izleyen aylarda yeniden d\u00fczenlenmi\u015ftir. Yeniden d\u00fczenleme, bana g\u00f6re, ilkeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeksizin sadece s\u00f6ylemin daha diplomatik hale getirilmesidir. Bas\u0131na s\u0131zan metinde yer alan ilkelerden inceledi\u011fim konu ile ilgili olan ikisinin \u00e7evirisi \u015f\u00f6yledir; \u201c\u0130lk hedefimiz Sovyetler Birli\u011fi topraklar\u0131nda veya bir ba\u015fka yerde eski Sovyetler Birli\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde yeni bir rakibin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemektir. Bu husus, yeni b\u00f6lgesel savunma stratejinin temel ilkesidir ve kaynaklar\u0131 denetlendi\u011finde k\u00fcresel bir g\u00fc\u00e7 yaratabilecek bir b\u00f6lgenin d\u00fc\u015fman bir g\u00fcc\u00fcn kontrol\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesini \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7abalamay\u0131 gerektirir. \u2026 \u201cOrtado\u011fu ve G\u00fcneybat\u0131 Asya\u2019da temel hedefimiz b\u00f6lge d\u0131\u015f\u0131 tek egemen g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak kalmak ve bu b\u00f6lgenin petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ABD ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerinin eri\u015fimine a\u00e7\u0131k tutmakt\u0131r. B\u00f6lgeye sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 cayd\u0131rmak, b\u00f6lgede istikrar\u0131 desteklemek, ABD uyruklar\u0131n\u0131 ve mal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumak ve uluslararas\u0131 hava ve su yollar\u0131n\u0131 eri\u015fimimiz i\u00e7in g\u00fcven alt\u0131na almakt\u0131r. Irak\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019i i\u015fgal etmesinin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi, b\u00f6lgeye bir egemen g\u00fcc\u00fcn veya g\u00fc\u00e7 ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2kim olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bu \u00f6zellikle Arap Yar\u0131madas\u0131 ile ilgilidir. Bu nedenle cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rmaya ve g\u00fcvenlik i\u015fbirli\u011fini geli\u015ftirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcren bir rol oynamaya devam etmeliyiz.[7]\u201d Wolfowitz doktrini, \u00f6zetle, Ortado\u011fu petrollerinin muslu\u011fu ABD\u2019nin denetiminde kalmal\u0131d\u0131r demektedir. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jimmy Carter\u2019in Ulusal G\u00fcvenlik Dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 (1977-1981) Zbigniew Brzezinski, 1997 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve dilimize \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Satran\u00e7 Tahtas\u0131[8]\u201d olarak \u00e7evrilen kitab\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin k\u00fcresel \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc koruyabilmesi i\u00e7in dikkatle izlemesi ve olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zenle \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gereken geli\u015fmeleri incelemi\u015ftir. Kitapta say\u0131lan \u00e7e\u015fitli olas\u0131l\u0131klardan konumuz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm birka\u00e7\u0131na k\u0131saca de\u011finmek istiyorum. \u201cAmerika i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli jeopolitik \u00f6d\u00fcl Avrasya\u2019d\u0131r. \u2026 Art\u0131k, Avrasyal\u0131 olmayan bir g\u00fc\u00e7 Avrasya\u2019daki \u00fcst\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr ve Amerika\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc do\u011frudan do\u011fruya Avrasya k\u0131tas\u0131ndaki h\u00e2kimiyetinin ne kadar s\u00fcre ve ne kadar etkili s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebildi\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.[9]\u201d \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik iki \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc de s\u0131ras\u0131yla \u015f\u00f6yledir; \u201c\u00c7in hali haz\u0131rda \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr. Tarihinden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7le ve \u00c7in devletini d\u00fcnyan\u0131n merkezi olarak g\u00f6ren bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck iddialarda bulunmas\u0131 muhtemeldir. \u00c7in\u2019in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imler Asya\u2019daki g\u00fcc\u00fcn jeopolitik da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye zaten ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.[10]\u201d Brzezinski, ABD i\u00e7in en tehlikeli senaryo olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise \u015f\u00f6yle a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; \u201cRusya\u2019n\u0131n hem \u00c7in hem de \u0130ran ile bir koalisyon ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 ancak e\u011fer ABD, \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 ayn\u0131 anda kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na alacak kadar k\u0131sa g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fl\u00fc olmas\u0131 halinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Emin olunabilir ki, b\u00f6yle bir olas\u0131l\u0131k d\u0131\u015flanamaz. ABD\u2019nin 1995-1996 daki davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bu anlay\u0131\u015fa uygun d\u00fc\u015fmektedir. O tarihlerde Amerika hem Tahran hem de Pekin\u2019i kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na alacak ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7inde idi. Ancak ne \u0130ran ne de \u00c7in, istikrars\u0131z ve zay\u0131f olan Rusya ile stratejik i\u015fbirli\u011fi yapmaya arzulu de\u011fillerdi. Her iki \u00fclke de b\u00f6yle bir koalisyonun, taktik manevra d\u00fczenlemeleri ile belirli bir \u00e7izgiyi ge\u00e7mesi halinde, gereksinim duyduklar\u0131 ileri teknoloji ve yat\u0131r\u0131m kapasitesine sahip daha geli\u015fmi\u015f bir d\u00fcnya ile i\u015fbirliklerini riske atacaklar\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndayd\u0131. Rusya ger\u00e7ekten hegemonya kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 koalisyon i\u00e7in verebilece\u011fi fazlaca bir \u015feye sahip de\u011fildi. \u2026 Rusya da b\u00f6yle bir koalisyon halinde, kendi jeopolitik uzman\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, Bat\u0131\u2019dan teknoloji ve sermaye geli\u015finden mahrum olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fark\u0131ndayd\u0131.[11]\u201d Brzezinski, Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin vurgusu ise \u015f\u00f6yleydi; \u201cE\u011fer \u00c7in Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ve Singapur\u2019daki jeostratejik t\u0131kanma noktalar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol ederse, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu petrollerine ve Avrupa pazarlar\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da kontrol edecektir.[12]\u201d Brzezinski, kitab\u0131nda etnik yap\u0131lar\u0131 nedeni ile ciddi sorun ya\u015fayabilme olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirterek dokuz \u00fclkeyi Avrasya\u2019n\u0131n Balkanlar\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlar. Bu \u00fclkeler s\u0131ras\u0131yla Kazakistan, K\u0131rg\u0131zistan, Tacikistan, \u00d6zbekistan, T\u00fcrkmenistan, Azerbaycan, Ermenistan, G\u00fcrcistan ve Afganistan\u2019d\u0131r. Kitapta ayr\u0131ca, Avrasya Balkanlar\u0131na eklenebilecek potansiyel adaylar olarak T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130ran da g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir[13]. Siyasi tarihten bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u201cBalkanlar\u201d s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, kavga, sava\u015f, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k co\u011frafyas\u0131 anlam\u0131na kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Brzezinski\u2019den yapaca\u011f\u0131m son al\u0131nt\u0131 Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n stratejik \u00f6nemine y\u00f6neliktir; \u201cUkrayna\u2019n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korumadaki kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da d\u0131\u015f destekle de g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyordu. Her ne kadar Bat\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de Birle\u015fik Devletler ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z Ukrayna devletinin jeopolitik \u00f6nemini kavramay\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rdan ald\u0131ysa da, 1990 lar\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda hem Amerika hem de Almanya Kiev\u2019in ayr\u0131 kimli\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc birer destek oldular. Temmuz 1996 da ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 \u015fu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapt\u0131: \u2018Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve istikrar i\u00e7in Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir devlet olmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsenemez\u2019[14]\u201d 1997 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan Brzezinki\u2019nin \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck Satran\u00e7 Tahtas\u0131\u201d g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyaya sunum yolar\u0131n\u0131 denetlemeye y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen sava\u015flar\u0131 olarak sahneye konulan oyunlar\u0131 anlama ve yorumlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olan de\u011ferli bir incelemedir. 2001-2009 d\u00f6neminde ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 George W. Bush\u2019un Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Dick Chenney, 1999 y\u0131l\u0131nda Halliburton \u015eirketi\u2019nin Ba\u015fkan\u0131 iken Londra\u2019da Institute of Petroleum\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konu\u015fmada Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun gelecek i\u00e7in ne denli \u00f6nemli ta\u015f\u0131yaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu c\u00fcmlelerle ifade etmi\u015ftir: \u201cMevcut petrol rezervlerinden yap\u0131lacak \u00fcretimlerde, muhafazak\u00e2r bir tahminle, do\u011fal olarak y\u00fczde 3 dolay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llarda d\u00fcnya petrol talebinde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2 d\u00fczeyinde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam edece\u011fi tahmin edilmektedir. Bunun anlam\u0131 2010 lu y\u0131llarda g\u00fcnde 50 milyon varil dolay\u0131nda ek bir petrole gereksinim do\u011facakt\u0131r. Bu petrol nereden gelecektir? H\u00fck\u00fcmetler ve ulusal petrol \u015firketleri mevcut petrol varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131na yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 kontrol etmektedirler. Petrol, temelinde bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u015fidir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunsalar da Ortado\u011fu en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle \u00fcretilen d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te iki boyutundaki petrol\u00fcne sahip olarak halen \u00f6d\u00fcl\u00fcn bulundu\u011fu yerdir. \u015eirketler b\u00fcy\u00fck bir heyecanla bu b\u00f6lgeye girme beklentisinde ise de s\u00fcre\u00e7 yava\u015f ilerlemektedir.[15]\u201d ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 George W. Bush (2001-2009) d\u00f6neminde 2001-2005 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda \u00f6nce ulusal g\u00fcvenlik dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 ve daha sonra da 2005-2009 d\u00f6neminde D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapm\u0131\u015f bulunan Condoleezza Rice\u2019\u0131n, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda, L\u00fcbnan ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131ralarda \u0130srail\u2019e yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ziyaretteki bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, \u201c\u015eu anda burada g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u015fey bir bak\u0131ma \u2018Yeni Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun do\u011fum sanc\u0131lar\u0131d\u0131r\u2019, ne yaparsak yapal\u0131m emin olmal\u0131y\u0131z ki Yeni Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz ve eskisine geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmeyecektir[16]\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini ifade etti\u011fi belirtilmektedir. An\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda, \u0130talya\u2019daki NATO Savunma Koleji\u2019nde bir konferans veren ABD\u2019li emekli Yarbay Ralph Peters, Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f ve par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f bir haritas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Bu par\u00e7alanma senaryosu Harita 2 de yer almaktad\u0131r. ABD makamlar\u0131 bu haritan\u0131n kendi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini de\u011fil yarbay\u0131n ki\u015fisel g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015flerdir.<\/p>\n

Harita 2<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"harita<\/p>\n

\n

Kaynak<\/strong>: Emekli Yarbay Ralph Peters\u2019\u0131n The Armed Forces Journal\u2019\u0131n Haziran 2006 say\u0131s\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan makalesindeki haritad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Condoleezza Rice, D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revini s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131rada ABD\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f politika konusunda \u00f6nde gelen dergisi Foreign Affairs\u2019inde 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cUlusal \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131 Yeniden D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnme-Yeni bir D\u00fcnya i\u00e7in Amerikan Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ili\u011fi\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 25 sayfal\u0131k makalesinde Ortado\u011fu konusunu da de\u011ferlendirmi\u015ftir[17]. Bu ba\u011flamda, makalede, 60 y\u0131ld\u0131r gerek Demokratlar\u0131n ve gerek Cumhuriyet\u00e7ilerin y\u00f6netimlerinde ABD\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019da, b\u00f6lgede istikrar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek ad\u0131na otoriter rejimleri destekledi\u011fi, ancak 11 Eyl\u00fcl sonras\u0131nda b\u00f6lgedeki \u00fclkelere verilen deste\u011fin sahte bir istikrara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve B\u00f6lge\u2019de politik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri ortaya koyabilecek yasal kanallar\u0131n bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak bunun B\u00f6lge\u2019de siyasi etkinlikler olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini belirtilerek k\u00f6ktenci medreseler ile camilerde politik etkinlerin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri ifade etmi\u015ftir. Rice makalesinde B\u00fcy\u00fck Ortado\u011fu\u2019da demokratikle\u015fme ve modernle\u015fme amac\u0131na y\u00f6nelik isteksizlik g\u00f6zlemlendi\u011fini, bu hedeflere ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu, bunun bir ku\u015fak veya daha uzun bir s\u00fcre alabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Rice, makalesinde B\u00f6lge i\u00e7in hedefi Amerika belirlemedi\u011fi taktirde, buna kimsenin te\u015febb\u00fcs etmeyece\u011fi anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 da dile getirmi\u015ftir. Bu ifade de Ortado\u011fu i\u00e7in hedefin ABD taraf\u0131ndan belirlenece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirmektedir. Rice, akademik kariyerine d\u00f6nd\u00fckten sonra 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 di\u011fer bir makalede, Suriye\u2019nin Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu bir arada tutmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu belirterek, bu \u00fclkedeki i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n bilinen Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcp par\u00e7alanmas\u0131n\u0131n son \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fc olabilece\u011fini ve B\u00f6lgenin bir arada tutulmas\u0131 ve ho\u015fg\u00f6r\u00fc, \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck ve daha sonra da demokratik bir istikrar\u0131n daha sa\u011flam bir temeli \u00fczerinde yeniden in\u015fas\u0131 f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7makta oldu\u011funu da dile getirmi\u015ftir[18]. \u0130srail Savunma Bakan\u0131 Moshe Ya\u2019alon Ekim 2014 ay\u0131nda NPR\u2019a (National Public Radio) verdi\u011fi s\u00f6yle\u015fisinde, \u201cGelecek y\u0131llarda Ortado\u011fu\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var m\u0131\u201d sorusuna, \u201cEvet, kesinlikle. S\u0131n\u0131rlar halen de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Suriye\u2019yi birle\u015ftirebilir misiniz? Ba\u015far Esad Suriye topraklar\u0131n\u0131n sadece y\u00fczde 25 ini kontrol ediyor. \u2026[19]\u201d Bakan\u2019\u0131n ayn\u0131 s\u00f6yle\u015fide \u015fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de ifade etti\u011fi haber kayna\u011f\u0131nda yer almaktad\u0131r; \u201cLibya yeni kurulmu\u015ftu, I. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sonucunda Bat\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Suriye, Irak ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ve \u015fimdi g\u00f6rmekte oldu\u011fumuz bu Bat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcd\u00fcr.[20]\u201d ABD d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcnyesinde bar\u0131nd\u0131ran ve H\u00fck\u00fcmetlerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir kurulu\u015f olan \u201cD\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konsey\u201di, iki uzman\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cABD\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e Y\u00f6nelik B\u00fcy\u00fck Stratejisi\u2019ni G\u00f6zden Ge\u00e7irme\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 raporu Mart 2015 de yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[21]. Rapor, \u00c7in\u2019in ABD\u2019nin ya\u015famsal ulusal \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na meydan okudu\u011fu sav\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir seri \u00f6nlemleri \u00f6nermektedir. \u0130nceledi\u011fim konu ile ilgili olan birka\u00e7 \u00f6neriye burada yer vermek istiyorum. \u201cOrtado\u011fu\u2019daki karga\u015fa ve Rusya ile mevcut gerginli\u011fe ra\u011fmen, Ba\u015fkan, gelecek on y\u0131llarda ABD\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu en b\u00fcy\u00fck stratejik meydan okumay\u0131 y\u00f6netmeye yo\u011funla\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r.[22]\u201d Bu ifade ile \u00c7in\u2019in hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Di\u011fer bir \u00f6neri, \u201c\u2026 \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik olarak yeni bir teknoloji kontrol mekanizmas\u0131 kurulmal\u0131d\u0131r.\u201d An\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, Sovyetler Birli\u011fi d\u00f6neminde de bu \u00fclkeye teknoloji ihrac\u0131na ambargo uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir ba\u015fka \u00f6neri, \u201cABD enerji devrimi, ABD\u2019nin m\u00fcttefik ve dostlar\u0131na gaz ve petrol sunumu \u00f6n\u00fcndeki engeller kald\u0131r\u0131larak Asya\u2019da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir jeopolitik kazanca d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmelidir.\u201d Asl\u0131nda bu rapor da okunmas\u0131 gereken \u00f6nemli bir belgedir. Buraya kadar sizlere ABD\u2019nin petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme konusunda olu\u015ftura geldi\u011fi politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131m. Benzeri bilgiler zincirini ne yaz\u0131k ki \u00c7in, Rusya ve Hindistan i\u00e7in sunam\u0131yorum. Bunun nedenlerinin ba\u015f\u0131nda an\u0131lan \u00fclkelerin dillerini bilmedi\u011fim i\u00e7in o dillerdeki yay\u0131nlar\u0131nda petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme konusunda yer alan bilgilere ula\u015famam m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, o \u00fclkelerde yay\u0131nlar ve bas\u0131nda ABD \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde bilgi sunulup sunulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da bilmiyorum. San\u0131r\u0131m, o \u00fclkeler de petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme konusunda ABD kadar kararl\u0131 stratejiler olu\u015fturmu\u015f ve uygulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131rlar. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc o \u00fclkeler de \u201culusal \u00e7\u0131kar\u201d kavram\u0131 konusunda en ABD kadar duyarl\u0131d\u0131rlar. Sizlere yer alan baz\u0131 geli\u015fmeler hakk\u0131nda bilgi sunarken, bu \u00fclkelerin yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 tutumlar\u0131 yine Bat\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131ndan yararlanarak aktarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. An\u0131msayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z \u00fczere, Arap Bahar\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 ba\u015flamas\u0131nda bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitli yerlerinde \u201crenkli devrimler\u201d ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bunlardan konumuzla ilgili olan ikisini k\u0131saca an\u0131msatmak istiyorum.<\/p>\n

Ukrayna<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cOrange\u201d veya T\u00fcrk\u00e7e ad\u0131 ile Portakal rengi devrimi Ukrayna\u2019da Kas\u0131m 2004 ile Ocak 2005 aras\u0131nda uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda Ukrayna\u2019da iki turlu Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imleri yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130kinci tur sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 yo\u011fun tart\u0131\u015fmalar konu olmu\u015f, se\u00e7imler iptal edilip muhalefet lideri Viktor Yushcenko ba\u015fkan ilan edilmi\u015fti. 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Ukrayna\u2019da ABD, Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7eki\u015fmesi kesintisiz bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Son y\u0131llarda bu \u00e7eki\u015fme ta\u015feronlar\u0131n devreye girdi\u011fi yar\u0131 i\u00e7 sava\u015f konumuna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130nceledi\u011fimiz konu kapsam\u0131nda bu \u00fclkede sergilenen uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen unsurlar\u0131n, bana g\u00f6re, neler oldu\u011funu k\u0131saca a\u00e7\u0131klamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa Birli\u011fi ve ABD i\u00e7in stratejik \u00f6nemi konusunda Brzezinski\u2019nin saptamalar\u0131na yukar\u0131da de\u011finmi\u015ftim. O g\u00f6zlemi akl\u0131m\u0131zda tutarak, onlara \u015fu bilgileri ekleyebiliriz. Ukrayna, Harita 3 den de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, Rusya\u2019dan Avrupa\u2019ya giden do\u011fal gaz boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n en yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu co\u011frafyad\u0131r. An\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere \u00e7ok so\u011fuk ge\u00e7en 2009 k\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Ukrayna ile Rusya aras\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 konusunda tart\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve sorun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyince de Rusya Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n gaz\u0131n\u0131 kesmi\u015fti. Bu gaz kesintisi sadece do\u011fal gaz gereksinimin y\u00fczde 70 ini Rus gaz\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131layan Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 etkilemekle kalmam\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcm Avrupa etkilenmi\u015fti. Zira Rusya, Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin do\u011fal gaz ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 31, ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 27 sini, k\u00f6m\u00fcr ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 24 \u00fcn\u00fc ve uranyum ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 30 unu sa\u011flamaktayd\u0131[23].<\/p>\n

Harita 3<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"harita<\/p>\n

\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0News.bbc.co.uk<\/p>\n

Bu bilgiler de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymaktad\u0131r ki, Ukrayna Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne Rus do\u011fal gaz\u0131n\u0131n sunumunda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stratejik \u00f6neme sahiptir. Ukrayna, sadece Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019ya pazarlanmas\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131n kritik bir co\u011frafya de\u011fildir, bu \u00fclke ayn\u0131 zamanda Hazar havzas\u0131 petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn Avrupa\u2019ya pazarlanabilmesi i\u00e7in alternatif bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h da olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n 2004 den bu yana politik karga\u015fa i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131 ve ABD ile AB\u2019nin \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 politikas\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131ktan ve dolayl\u0131 kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sonucu Rusya i\u00e7in riski artan bir co\u011frafya haline de gelmi\u015ftir. O nedenle Rusya Karadeniz sava\u015f filosu i\u00e7in \u00f6nemi b\u00fcy\u00fck olan K\u0131r\u0131m\u2019\u0131 i\u015fgal etme yoluna gitmi\u015f ve ayr\u0131ca Avrupa pazarlar\u0131na do\u011fal gaz sunmak i\u00e7in, g\u00fczergah\u0131 Harita 4 de yer alan, alternatif 21.6 milyar dolarl\u0131k ve 1480 mil uzunlu\u011funda in\u015fa edilecek olan \u201cG\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u201d projesini uygulamaya koymu\u015ftur. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu alternatif do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fta \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n devlet kurulu\u015fu olan ENI S.p.A. \u015firketi ve do\u011fal gaza susam\u0131\u015f yedi Avrupa \u00fclkesi daha destek vermi\u015flerdir. Alman Siemens firmas\u0131n\u0131n boru hatt\u0131 ile ilgili baz\u0131 gere\u00e7leri sataca\u011f\u0131 da ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[24].<\/p>\n

Harita 4<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"harita<\/p>\n

\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0Gazprom web sitesi, South Stream pipeline map.<\/p>\n

Bu geli\u015fmelerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin Chevron petrol \u015firketi ile Oklesky\u2019deki tortulu \u015fist (shale) yataklar\u0131ndan gaz \u00fcretim anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve benzeri anla\u015fmalar\u0131n daha \u00f6nce de Shell ve Exxon-Mobil \u015firketleri de yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmektedir[25]. Bu yataklardan gaz \u00fcretiminin 2020 ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 da ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. ABD \u015firketlerinin Ukrayna\u2019da gaz \u00fcretmesi hem bu \u00fclkenin do\u011fal gazda Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rabilecek, hem de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gaz ihracat\u0131na ciddi bir rakip \u00e7\u0131karacakt\u0131r. Bu arada ABD\u2019nin \u00fclkesindeki zengin tortulu \u015fist yataklar\u0131ndan \u00fcretmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011fal gaz\u0131 s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olarak Avrupa pazarlar\u0131na sunma haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 da mevcuttur. Bu ba\u011flamda, ABD, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gaz ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in halen 7 firmaya izin vermi\u015f ve 30 firman\u0131n da ba\u015fvurusunun incelendi\u011fi belirtilmektedir[26]. ABD\u2019nin Ukrayna\u2019da gaz \u00fcretimine ba\u015flama giri\u015fimi ve Avrupa\u2019ya s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gaz ihra\u00e7 projesi, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa pazarlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcne ciddi bir darbe olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Ancak, s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, boru hatlar\u0131 ile sevk edilen gazdan daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 ve rekabette zorlan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 da ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca, ABD\u2019nin Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flatmak amac\u0131yla, Temmuz 2014 den ba\u015flayarak petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 50 dolar dolay\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek amac\u0131yla Suudi Arabistan ile birlikte ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunum fazlal\u0131\u011f\u0131 politikas\u0131, ABD\u2019deki tortulu \u015fist gaz\u0131 \u00fcreten firmalar\u0131n mali durumunu da ciddi \u015fekilde bozmu\u015ftur. Bunun sonucu olarak baz\u0131 ABD\u2019li firmalar\u0131n tortulu \u015fistten gaz \u00fcretimlerini durdurduklar\u0131 da belirtilmektedir. Bu arada uzun s\u00fcredir s\u00fcren i\u00e7 sava\u015f ortam\u0131 Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n ekonomik durumuna da ciddi darbe vurmu\u015f ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyemez duruma getirmi\u015ftir. Bu a\u00e7mazdan kurtulabilmek i\u00e7in Ukrayna, IMF ile \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k yeni bir stand-by Anla\u015fmas\u0131 yaparak 17.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir kredi alm\u0131\u015f ve bunun 5 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131 \u015eubat 2015 de \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. IMF ile anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, Ukrayna, Naftogaz\u2019\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k 4 milyar dolay\u0131ndaki a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatabilmek i\u00e7in gaz sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 300 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckseltmek zorunda ve ayr\u0131ca petrol ve do\u011fal gaz \u00fcretmekte olan kamu \u015firketlerine de devlete y\u00fczde 70 oran\u0131nda royalti \u00f6deme y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc getirilmi\u015ftir[27]. Gaz sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131na yap\u0131lan bu s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 zam ve kamu \u015firketlerine y\u00fcklenen royalti \u00f6demeleri t\u00fcketicileri ve \u015firketleri ciddi \u015fekilde olumsuz etkileyece\u011fi i\u00e7in Ukrayna\u2019da yeni huzursuzluklar\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 olabilir. Son zamanlarda bas\u0131nda yer alan bir haberde, Ukrayna\u2019daki i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara \u0130\u015e\u0130D militanlar\u0131n\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin iddialar da ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[28]. Ukrayna, stratejik madenler ve mineraller a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yan bir \u00fclkedir. Ukrayna, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcretimi ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ham \u00e7elik \u00fcretiminde 10 uncu \u00fclke konumundad\u0131r. Kaliteli \u00e7elik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in gerekli olan manganez rezervleri 2,200 milyon ton ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda yer alan Ukrayna, Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra ciddi bir \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 sonu verilerine g\u00f6re y\u0131ll\u0131k 580,000 ton \u00fcretim ile d\u00fcnyada 7 nci s\u0131radad\u0131r. Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n Velikotokmakskoye manganez yataklar\u0131n\u0131n 1.5 Gt rezerve sahip oldu\u011fu belirtilmekte ve \u00c7in\u2019in, bu rezervlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fletmek \u00fczere 500 milyon dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[29]. Ayr\u0131ca, Ukrayna al\u00fbminyum, titanyum, uranyum gibi stratejik minerallere de sahip bir \u00fclkedir[30]. Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta da belirtti\u011fim \u00fczere stratejik maden ve minerallerin denetlenmesi sava\u015f\u0131 da hidrokarbon kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 denetlemek i\u00e7in verilen sava\u015flar kadar yo\u011fun ve \u015fiddetli bir m\u00fccadeledir. O nedenle, Ukrayna\u2019da ya\u015fanmakta olan i\u00e7 karga\u015faya sadece enerji kaynaklar\u0131 ve ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnden bakmak konuyu tek g\u00f6zle bakarak anlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak olur. Brzezinski\u2019den yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m al\u0131nt\u0131lardan birisinde ABD i\u00e7in en endi\u015fe verecek senaryolardan birisi olarak Rusya, \u00c7in ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir koalisyon olu\u015fturmas\u0131 oldu\u011fu ifade edilmi\u015fti. Rusya, May\u0131s 2014 ay\u0131nda \u00c7in \u2018e y\u0131lda 38 milyar metrek\u00fcp do\u011fal gaz ta\u015f\u0131yacak ve 400 milyar dolar maliyetli POS boru hatt\u0131 yan\u0131nda d\u00f6\u015feme anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[31]. Yine Rusya, Kas\u0131m 2014 de \u00c7in ile imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir anla\u015fma ile Bat\u0131 Sibirya\u2019dan Kuzey Bat\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e d\u00f6\u015fenecek 300 milyar dolar maliyetli ve y\u0131lda 30 milyar metrek\u00fcp gaz ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in ile y\u0131ll\u0131k 68 milyar metrek\u00fcpl\u00fck do\u011fal gaz anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalamas\u0131, gerek Ukrayna ve gerek Avrupa \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in ciddi bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. O nedenle, G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m projesi i\u00e7in Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ABD bask\u0131s\u0131na diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermektedirler. Bunlara ek olarak Rusya ile \u00c7in May\u0131s 2015 ay\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda Akdeniz\u2019de ortak bir donanma tatbikat\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Bunlara ek olarak Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019a uygulanan ambargolar da iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkileri olumlu etkileyecek bir ortam yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in de, \u0130ran\u2019da petrol ve do\u011fal gaz i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 nedeni ile bu \u00fclkeye uygulanan ambargodan mutlu olmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. BRICS \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki giderek geli\u015fen i\u015fbirli\u011fi de \u00c7in ve Rus yak\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen bir unsurdur.\u00a0<\/strong>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile Brzezinski\u2019nin endi\u015fe etti\u011fi senaryo geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde, yine Brzezinski\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u015fekilde ABD\u2019nin izledi\u011fi politikalar sonucu geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ya\u015fama ge\u00e7mi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n

Myanmar<\/strong><\/p>\n

1948 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130ngiliz s\u00f6m\u00fcrgesi olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z devlet konumuna gelen Myanmar veya eski ad\u0131yla Burma 1960 l\u0131 y\u0131llardan beri askeri diktat\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netile gelmi\u015ftir. Zaman zaman se\u00e7imler yap\u0131ld\u0131 ise de askeri rejim se\u00e7imi kazananlara iktidar\u0131 devretmemi\u015ftir. Myanmar\u2019da petrol \u00fcretimi 1871 y\u0131l\u0131nda, \u0130ngilizler taraf\u0131ndan daha sonra ismi Burmah Petrol \u015eirketine de\u011fi\u015ftirilecek olan, Rangoon Petrol \u015eirketini kurulmas\u0131 ile ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dclke 1970 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri de do\u011fal gaz \u00fcretmektedir[32]. Myanmar y\u00f6netimi 1990 l\u0131 y\u0131llarda Maltaban K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki do\u011fal gaz yataklar\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fletme ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 Fransa\u2019n\u0131n Elf-Total \u015eirketi ile \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Premier Oil \u015eirketine vermi\u015ftir. Bu d\u00fczenlemeden k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra da rezerv kapasitesi 5 trilyon k\u00fcbik feet olan Yadana ve Yetagun gaz rezervlerini i\u015fletme ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 da ABD\u2019nin Texaco ve Unocal (bu \u015firket 2000 li y\u0131llarda Chevron taraf\u0131nda sat\u0131n al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r) \u015firketlerine verilmi\u015ftir. Amerikan \u015firketleri 2002 y\u0131l\u0131nda Yetagun projesinden \u00e7ekilme karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015flar ve Malezya\u2019n\u0131n Petronas \u015firketi de \u0130ngiliz \u015firketi Premier Oil\u2019\u0131n y\u00fczde 27 lik hisselerini sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[33]. 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in, Tayland ve G\u00fcney Kore Myanmar\u2019\u0131n petrol ve do\u011fal gaz sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne yo\u011fun yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Yadana sahas\u0131 Elf-Total \u015firketi taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fletilmeye devam etmektedir. Yetagun ise Petronas ve Myanmar\u2019\u0131n devlet \u015firketi olan MOGE (Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise) ve Japon \u015firketi Nippon Oil ve PTT-EP \u015firketleri taraf\u0131nda i\u015fletilmektedir. 15 A\u011fustos ve 26 Eyl\u00fcl 2007 tarihleri aras\u0131nda, Myanmar\u2019da \u201cSafran Devrim\u201d giri\u015fimi ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu olaylar\u0131n safran rengi ile tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni Budist rahiplerin giysilerinin bu renkte olmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in ithal etmekte oldu\u011fu petrol\u00fcn y\u00fczde 80 i Malakka Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7mektedir. Bu bo\u011faza ili\u015fkin bilgiler Harita 1 den an\u0131msanabilir. Bu bo\u011faz\u0131n en dar yeri olan Phillips Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fli\u011fi sadece 1.7 mil (3 km.den biraz fazla) olup y\u0131lda 60,000 gemi (g\u00fcnde ortalama 164 gemi) ge\u00e7mesi nedeniyle, \u00e7arp\u0131\u015fma, karaya oturma, korsanl\u0131k, sabotaj, ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131lma ve petrol s\u0131z\u0131nt\u0131 riskleri ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu bo\u011faz\u0131 kapatacak bir olay, bir yandan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131, di\u011fer yandan tanker ta\u015f\u0131ma \u00fccretlerini ciddi bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseltebilecektir[34]. 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fini y\u00fckselten \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olsa bile riskler t\u00fcm\u00fcyle ortadan kalkmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu bo\u011faz\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi \u00c7in, Hindistan, Japonya, Endonezya gibi b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerini oldu\u011fu kadar ABD\u2019ni de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendirmektedir. \u00c7in, Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden ve Afrika\u2019dan gelen petrolleri i\u00e7in daha g\u00fcvenli bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olarak da Myanmar\u2019dan ba\u015flayan ve \u00fclkesindeki sanayi b\u00f6lgelerine ula\u015fan bir petrol boru hatt\u0131 projesini uygulamaya ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in petrol ve do\u011falda g\u00fcvenli\u011fini y\u00fckseltebilmek i\u00e7in 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri Myanmar ile i\u015fbirli\u011fini geli\u015ftirmeye \u00f6zen g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu ba\u011flamda 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda PetroChina ile Myanmar H\u00fck\u00fcmeti aras\u0131nda 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k do\u011fal gaz sat\u0131n alma anla\u015fmas\u0131 imzalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 devam ederken, Myanmar, Bengal K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki Shwe do\u011fal gaz rezervlerinden iki blokta do\u011fal gaz arama ve \u00fcretme hakk\u0131n\u0131 Hindistan\u2019a vermi\u015fti. Ancak, Hindistan \u00fcretilecek do\u011fal gaz\u0131 boru hatlar\u0131 ile Banglade\u015f \u00fczerinden ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in an\u0131lan \u00fclke ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde istenilen sonuca ula\u015f\u0131lamay\u0131nca s\u00f6z konusu do\u011fal gaz s\u00f6zle\u015fmesini uygulamaya koyamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda imzalanan anla\u015fmaya dayanarak PetroChina ve CNPC (\u00c7in Ulusal Petrol \u015eirketi) ile Shwe do\u011fal gaz yataklar\u0131n\u0131 bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fletmekte olan Daewoo Uluslararas\u0131 Konsorsiyumu ile 2008 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda bir s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzalanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fmeler \u00fczerine Myanmar\u2019dan \u00c7in\u2019e do\u011fal gaz ile \u00c7in\u2019in Afrika ve Basra K\u00f6rfezinden ithal etmekte oldu\u011fu petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yacak iki boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131ras\u0131yla 1.5 ve 1.04 milyar dolara yap\u0131m\u0131 hususunda da \u00c7in ve Myanmar H\u00fck\u00fcmetleri anla\u015fmaya varm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Bu anla\u015fmalara g\u00f6re, do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131 Haziran 2013 te ve petrol boru hatt\u0131 da A\u011fustos 2014 de i\u015fletmeye al\u0131nacakt\u0131. Bu boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ve bitim noktalar\u0131 ile ge\u00e7ece\u011fi yerler Harita 5 de yer almaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in ve Myanmar aras\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz sat\u0131n alma anla\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile Safran Devrim giri\u015fimin ayn\u0131 zaman diliminde olmas\u0131 herhalde sadece bir rastlant\u0131 olmal\u0131. Yine ilgin\u00e7 bir rastlant\u0131 olarak Safran Devrimini ba\u015flatan rahipler sokaklarda iken ABD, Hindistan, Avustralya, Japon ve Singapur donanmalar\u0131 ABD u\u00e7ak gemilerinin de kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 Malabar 7 deniz tatbikat\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki Okinawa adas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiler[35]. 2002 Y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri her y\u0131l yap\u0131la gelmekte olan bu tatbikat ilk kez Hint Okyanusu d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Harita 5<\/strong><\/p>\n

Haritaya kaynaktaki yaz\u0131dan ula\u015f\u0131labilir<\/p>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0Global Times \u201cNew China-Myanmar pipeline opens\u201d Source: CFP Graphics: 21 October 2013.<\/p>\n

An\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s sonu Haziran ay\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda Myanmar\u2019\u0131n Arakan Eyaleti\u2019nde, az\u0131nl\u0131k konumunda olan ve vatanda\u015fl\u0131k stat\u00fcs\u00fc verilmeyen Rohingya M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131 ile Rakhine Budistleri aras\u0131nda Sittwe b\u00f6lgesinde birbirlerinin evleri yakacak noktaya gelen ciddi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f ve M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar Banglade\u015f\u2019e s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f ise de bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, Reuters\u2019in haberine g\u00f6re, o \u00fclke taraf\u0131ndan geri g\u00f6nderilmi\u015fti[36]. Resmen a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlara g\u00f6re Banglade\u015f\u2019te 7,000 dolay\u0131nda Rohingya M\u00fcsl\u00fcman\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler kaynaklar\u0131 bu say\u0131n\u0131n 300,000 dolay\u0131nda oldu\u011funu tahmin etmektedir[37]. Yine Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerin tahminlerine g\u00f6re 100,000 den fazla Rohingya M\u00fcsl\u00fcman\u0131n deniz yolu ile \u00fclkeden ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki bu olaylar s\u0131ras\u0131nda y\u00fczlerce Rohingya M\u00fcsl\u00fcman\u0131n \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve 140,000 dolay\u0131n\u0131n da evsiz barks\u0131z kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmektedir[38]. May\u0131s 2015 ay\u0131nda Andaman Denizinde binlerce Rohingya M\u00fcsl\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131n bal\u0131k\u00e7\u0131 teknelerinde t\u0131kl\u0131m t\u0131kl\u0131m dolu olarak a\u00e7 sefil dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu teknelerdekilere Endonezya, Tayland ve Malezya s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma hakk\u0131 vermeyi kabul etmemektedir. \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin diplomatlar\u0131n\u0131n konuyu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmekte olduklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanmaktad\u0131r. Myanmar\u2019daki Budist rahiplerin Rohingya M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkeye \u015feriat getirecekleri s\u00f6ylemleri ile tansiyonu y\u00fckselttikleri ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[39]. Arakan\u2019da yerle\u015fik bu etnik k\u00f6kenleri ve inan\u00e7lar\u0131 farkl\u0131 gruplar, bu b\u00f6lgede as\u0131rlard\u0131r, iyi ge\u00e7inmeseler ve dostane ya\u015famasalar ve zaman zaman \u00e7at\u0131\u015fsalar da bir arada ya\u015fayagelmi\u015flerdir. Askeri diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn h\u00fck\u00fcmran oldu\u011fu son 60 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n d\u00f6nemde de 2007 den beri ya\u015fanmakta olan d\u00fczeyde ciddi sorunlar ya\u015fanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak Arakan Eyaleti ve olaylar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Sittwe b\u00f6lgesinde 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Arakan Eyaleti\u2019nin k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu Bengal K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7ok zengin do\u011fal gaz rezervlerine sahiptir ve bu rezervler \u00c7in ulusal petrol \u015firketleri ile Myanmar\u2019\u0131n ulusal kamu \u015firketi MOGE taraf\u0131ndan ortakla\u015fa i\u015fletilmeye ba\u015flanacakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca biraz \u00f6nce de de\u011findi\u011fim \u00fczere Arakan Eyaleti\u2019nin ba\u015fkenti olan Sittwe liman\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan ve \u00c7inin Yunnan Eyaletine uzanan petrol ve do\u011fal gaz boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n in\u015faatlar\u0131 bitme noktas\u0131na yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in ayr\u0131ca Sittwe liman kentinde \u00f6nemli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da mevcuttu[40]. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, Myanmar\u2019da 2007 Safran Devrimi ve 2012 Arakan Eyaleti\u2019ndeki etnik ve inan\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131, \u00c7in ile Myanmar\u2019\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ortak projeler uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 yerlerde ve d\u00f6nemlerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda gerek Ukrayna ve gerek Myanmar\u2019daki renkli devrim giri\u015fimleri birer kitap boyutunda ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken konulard\u0131r. Renkli devrim giri\u015fimleri kadar, 18 Aral\u0131k 2010 tarihinde Tunus\u2019ta ba\u015flayan\/ba\u015flat\u0131lan \u201cArap Bahar\u0131\u201d projesi de yo\u011fun olarak petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n ve bu kaynaklar\u0131n d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na sunum yollar\u0131n\u0131 denetleme kavgas\u0131 ile ilgilidir. Bir\u00e7ok petrol uzman\u0131 Arap Bahar\u0131 projesinin bir ABD projesi oldu\u011funu ileri s\u00fcrmektedir[41]. Bug\u00fcn sizlere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla, Ortado\u011fu ve Kuzey Afrika\u2019da \u00e7ok kanl\u0131 olaylar\u0131n ya\u015fanmas\u0131na, milyonlarca ailenin ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131n alt \u00fcst olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an ve halen dahi baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmekte olan Arap Bahar\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde de\u011fil, se\u00e7mi\u015f oldu\u011fum baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler temelinde k\u0131saca de\u011ferlendirece\u011fim. \u0130nceleme kapsam\u0131na dahil etmedi\u011fim baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde ya\u015fananlar, inceleyece\u011fim \u00fclkelerden \u00e7ok daha vahim geli\u015fmelere konu olmu\u015f ve \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r insani kay\u0131plara ve ekonomik y\u0131k\u0131mlara konu olmu\u015ftur. Ancak konu\u015fman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda zorunlu olarak se\u00e7im yapmak durumundayd\u0131m.<\/p>\n

Irak<\/strong><\/p>\n

Irak, Birinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda \u0130ngiliz himayesinde iken 1921 y\u0131l\u0131nda kurulan krall\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u015eubat 1958 de darbe ile y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bu yana s\u00fcrekli olarak diktat\u00f6rler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netile gelmi\u015ftir. 1979 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2003 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019in y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda uzun y\u0131llardan beri devam eden s\u0131n\u0131r sorunlar\u0131 nedeni yan\u0131nda Irak Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019in devrilmesi amac\u0131yla 1980 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 9 y\u0131l s\u00fcre ile taraflardan birisinin \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck sa\u011flayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kaynak, zaman ve insan israf\u0131na yol a\u00e7an s\u00fcre\u00e7 olmu\u015ftur. Bu sava\u015f\u0131n tek kazanan\u0131 her iki \u00fclkeye de a\u00e7\u0131ktan ve gizlice silah satan \u00fclkeler ve t\u00fcccarlar olmu\u015ftur. Kaybeden taraf ise iki \u00fclkenin insanlar\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Zira sava\u015fa harcanan kaynaklar \u00fclke kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 ve bireylerin refah\u0131ndan k\u0131s\u0131larak sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Irak, 1990 y\u0131l\u0131nda Kuveyt\u2019e sald\u0131rm\u0131\u015f ve i\u015fgal etmi\u015ftir. Bu sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n temelinde de Kuveyt\u2019in Irak s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda bulunan ve Irak\u2019\u0131n topraklar\u0131na da ge\u00e7mi\u015f bulunan petrol kuyular\u0131ndan petrol \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddias\u0131 yatmaktayd\u0131. Bunun \u00fczerine ABD liderli\u011finde 34 \u00fclkenin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile olu\u015fturulan bir askeri g\u00fc\u00e7 ile Irak\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019i i\u015fgaline son verilmi\u015ftir. Bu harek\u00e2t sonras\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131n herhangi bir \u00fclkeye yeni bir askeri sald\u0131r\u0131da bulunmas\u0131na engel olacak bir seri \u00f6nlem al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda u\u00e7u\u015fa yasak b\u00f6lgeler, ambargo ve Irak\u2019\u0131n petrol gelirlerine el koyma gibi tedbirler uygulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130zleyen d\u00f6nemde, Irak\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt\u2019i i\u015fgalinin nedenleri tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu tart\u0131\u015fmalar devam ederken Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri ba\u015fta ABD ve \u0130ngiltere olmak \u00fczere, Irak\u2019\u0131n kitle imha silahlar\u0131 stokuna sahip oldu\u011fu iddialar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya atm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r. Irak i\u015fgal edildikten sonra, Bat\u0131 bas\u0131n\u0131nda Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019e ABD B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede, Kuveyt ile yap\u0131lacak diplomatik m\u00fczakerelerde tatmink\u00e2r bir sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde Irak\u2019\u0131n an\u0131lan \u00fclkeye askeri harek\u00e2t yapmas\u0131na g\u00f6z yumulaca\u011f\u0131 izlenimi verildi\u011fini ileri s\u00fcren haberler yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[42]. Iran-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6neminde 1997 y\u0131l\u0131nda Rusya, \u00c7in ve Fransa BM k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ortadan kalk\u0131nca yararlanmak \u00fczere petrol ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131 elde ettiler. Buna g\u00f6re, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Lukoil \u015firketi Bat\u0131 Kurna, \u00c7in\u2019in CNPC \u015firketi Kuzey Rumalia ve Fransa\u2019n\u0131n TotalFinaElf \u015firketleri de Mecnun b\u00f6lgelerinde mevcut i\u015fletmeleri iyile\u015ftirmek veya rezervleri geli\u015ftirme s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri imzalad\u0131lar[43]. Irak\u2019\u0131n Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u00fcvenlik Konseyi \u00fcyesi \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkeye \u00fclkesinde petrol arama ve pazarlama ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesinin \u00f6nde gelen nedeni bu \u00fclkeler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletlerin Irak\u2019a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 kald\u0131rtabilmekti, ancak bu beklentiler ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmalar\u0131 nedeniyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Bu arada, uygulanan B.M. yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ayr\u0131cal\u0131k alan firmalar\u0131n arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yapmalar\u0131na ciddi engeller olu\u015fturdu\u011fu i\u00e7in Irak Aral\u0131k 2002 de \u00fc\u00e7 Rus firmas\u0131 ile olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerini iptal etti[44]. Buna ra\u011fmen Rusya, firmalar\u0131n\u0131n hakk\u0131n\u0131 ABD ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde daima g\u00fcndemde tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc[45]. Asl\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok Rus devlet \u015firketleri Irak ile petrol arama ve \u00e7\u0131karma konusunda ilke anla\u015fmas\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ancak bunlardan bir k\u0131sm\u0131 ile s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzalama a\u015famas\u0131na gelinmi\u015fti. 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD ve \u0130ngiltere, Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Denetleme Heyetinin aksini rapor etmesine ra\u011fmen, Irak\u2019ta kitle imha silahlar\u0131 oldu\u011fu sav\u0131n\u0131 ileri s\u00fcrerek \u201cIrak\u2019a \u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u201d harek\u00e2t\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fczenleme giri\u015fimleri ba\u015flatt\u0131lar. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Irak\u2019ta Saddam H\u00fcseyin y\u00f6netiminden elde etti\u011fi ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131n ge\u00e7erli kal\u0131p kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 da g\u00fcndeme geldi, ancak ABD bunun m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesine tepki olarak \u00c7in ve Rusya di\u011fer nedenlerin yan\u0131nda bu sebeplerle de operasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar. Sonu\u00e7ta 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u201cIrak\u2019a \u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u201d harek\u00e2t\u0131 uyguland\u0131 ve Irak i\u015fgal edildi ve 2011 y\u0131l\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak kademeli asker \u00e7ekme yoluna gidildi ise de bir miktar asker b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131 ve bunlara ek olarak \u00f6zel \u015firketlerin koruma birlikleri de Irak\u2019ta kalmaya devam etti. Bu i\u015fgal s\u00fcresinde Saddam H\u00fcseyin ve yak\u0131n arkada\u015flar\u0131 yarg\u0131land\u0131 ve idam edildi. Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019in ABD\u2019nin nefretini kazanmas\u0131 sadece Kuveyt\u2019i i\u015fgal etmesi ve \u00c7in, Rus \u015firketlerine \u00fclkesinde petrol ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131 vermesinden kaynaklanm\u0131yordu, Saddam H\u00fcseyin y\u00f6netimi Eyl\u00fcl 2000 ay\u0131nda, B.M. k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 ile sat\u0131lan petrollerin ABD dolar\u0131 ile de\u011fil avro ile \u00f6denmesini talep etti[46]. Bu ABD ye sava\u015f ilan etmekle e\u015f de\u011fer bir a\u00e7\u0131klama idi, zira ba\u015fta petrol olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya ticareti a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla dolar \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lmakta idi, bir \u00fclkenin dolar\u0131 reddetmesi di\u011fer \u00fclkelere yay\u0131labilir ve bu ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen rezerv para olma stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ciddi bi\u00e7imde sarsarak ABD\u2019nin hegemonyas\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck bir darbe olu\u015ftururdu. Irak\u2019\u0131n i\u015fgalinin ve Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019in devrilmesinin \u00f6nde gelen nedenlerinin, \u201ckitle imha silahlar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Irak halk\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe kavu\u015fturmak de\u011fil, eski ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alan Greenspan\u2019\u0131n[47]kitab\u0131nda belirtti\u011fi gibi, Irak petrollerinin ele ge\u00e7irilmesi, Irak petrol \u00fcretiminin Rusya ve \u00c7in gibi \u00fclkelerce kontrol edilmesini \u00f6nlemek ve Irak\u2019\u0131n petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 avro \u00fczerinde yapmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek oldu\u011fu son y\u0131llarda yo\u011fun olarak yay\u0131nlanan yaz\u0131lar\u0131n konusu olmu\u015ftur. Irak\u2019\u0131n 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u015fgal edilmesinden bu yana Irak istikrar y\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rmedi ve son zamanlarda da ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin cirit att\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u00fclke konumuna geldi. Irak halk\u0131 Kuveyt i\u015fgalinden bu yana \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r bedeller \u00f6deyegelmektedir. Irak\u2019ta petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 denetlemek i\u00e7in ya\u015fananlar veya ya\u015fat\u0131lanlar milyonlarca Irakl\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek sefalet i\u00e7inde ya\u015famas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, Irak\u2019tan g\u00f6\u00e7lere de neden olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Libya<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu \u00fclke de darbe ile y\u00f6netimi ele ge\u00e7iren Muammer Kaddafi taraf\u0131nda 1969-2011 d\u00f6neminde y\u00f6netilmi\u015ftir. Libya, Tablo 5 den de an\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, 47.1 milyar varil petrol rezervi ile d\u00fcnya petrol varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda dokuzuncu konumdad\u0131r. Libya ayr\u0131ca, ciddi boyutta petrol potansiyeline sahip oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenen \u00c7ad ve Sudan ile de s\u0131n\u0131r kom\u015fusu olup bu \u00fclkeleri politik olarak etkileyebilme olana\u011f\u0131na da sahiptir. Kaddafi, 1970 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fclkesinde petrol \u00fcretimi yapan yabanc\u0131 \u015firketlerden mevcut anla\u015fmalarda k\u00f6kl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131 talep etti ve \u00fcretim payla\u015f\u0131m anla\u015fmalar\u0131 ile bu \u015firketlere b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde isteklerini kabul ettirdi. Libya \u00f6rne\u011fi di\u011fer petrol \u00fcreten \u00fclkeleri de etkiledi\u011finden ve politik ili\u015fkilerinde Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ne y\u00f6nelmesi de eklenince, ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin de tepkilerini \u00fczerine \u00e7ekti. 1982 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD, \u00fclkesine Libya petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn ithalini yasaklad\u0131. 1988 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Lockerbie kenti yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda PanAm \u015firketine ait bir u\u00e7a\u011f\u0131n bomba ile patlat\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fczerine, bu eylemi iki Libyal\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddialar\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc ve bu \u015f\u00fcphelilerin teslimi talep edildi. Libya bunu reddedince B.M. \u00fclkeyi teslime zorlamak i\u00e7in 1992 y\u0131l\u0131nda yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulama karar\u0131 ald\u0131. 31 Mart 1992 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc konulan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Libya\u2019ya petrol rafinelerinde ve ta\u015f\u0131mada kullan\u0131lan ara\u00e7 ve gere\u00e7lerin ihra\u00e7 edilmesi yasakland\u0131 ve 1993 y\u0131l\u0131nda yapt\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n kapsam\u0131 geni\u015fletilerek Libya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki varl\u0131klar\u0131 (petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinden elde edilen hari\u00e7) donduruldu.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00c7in\u2019in Libya\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcney kom\u015fular\u0131 Sudan ve \u00c7ad\u2019da petrol aramak i\u015fletmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in, Libya, Sudan ve \u00c7ad enerji i\u015fbirli\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirmesi, Bat\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmesi gereken bir risk g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ortaya \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Kaddafi, 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in Afrika\u2019da artan ekonomik etkinli\u011fini denetlemek i\u00e7in kurulan ABD Afrika Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na da Afrika\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve wikileaks belgelerinde yer alan bilgilere g\u00f6re, 21 May\u0131s g\u00fcn\u00fc kendisini ziyaret eden ABD\u2019li Komutanla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde, Afrika \u00fclkelerinde \u00e7\u0131kan kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar i\u00e7in ABD\u2019yi su\u00e7lam\u0131\u015f ve Afrika\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnyadaki \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n kurulacak bir Afrika Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan daha iyi korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede, Kaddafi, Afrika \u00fclkelerine \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfuz etmesini, \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015fmamas\u0131 nedeniyle olumlu kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, ancak ABD\u2019nin enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu yerlere, Afrika Guinea \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi askeri \u00fcsler kurma e\u011filiminde olmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun bulmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015ftir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede Kaddafi ayr\u0131ca, \u0130srail\u2019in Filistin politikalar\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019nin Cibuti\u2019deki askeri \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc ve Somali\u2019nin karasular\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7ler taraf\u0131ndan ihlal edilmesini de ele\u015ftirmi\u015ftir[48]. Belgeden somut olarak tarihini saptayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m bu konu\u015fman\u0131n 2010 veya 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 san\u0131yorum. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda Kaddafi, Afrika Birli\u011fi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 s\u0131fat\u0131 ile Afrika \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin \u201cAlt\u0131n Dinar\u201d \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerisini getirmi\u015ftir[49]. Libya Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir devlet kurulu\u015fu oldu\u011fu ve ayr\u0131ca Libya, Bank of International Settlement (BIS) \u00fcyesi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kendisi ile i\u015f yapan \u00fclkeler \u00f6deme ve alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 tahsil etme i\u015flemlerini Libya Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinden yapmak zorunda idiler. Bu durum esasen Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerini rahats\u0131z eden bir zorunluluktu, Libya\u2019n\u0131n \u201cAlt\u0131n Dinar\u201d \u00f6nerisinin ya\u015fama ge\u00e7mesi mevcut sorunu t\u00fcm Afrika K\u0131tas\u0131 ile ya\u015fan\u0131r konuma getirecekti. Libya, 150 ton alt\u0131n stoku ile bu projeyi ya\u015fama ge\u00e7irebilece\u011fi gibi, di\u011fer Afrika \u00fclkeleri yan\u0131nda Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkelerini de kat\u0131lmaya davet ediyordu[50]. Kaddafi\u2019nin bu hamlesinden birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce de, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u0130ran Petrol Borsa\u201ds\u0131n\u0131 kurma haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin haberler Haziran 2004 ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak yay\u0131nlanmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O g\u00fcne kadar, petrol borsas\u0131 olarak i\u015fleyen be\u015f merkez vard\u0131, Londra Uluslararas\u0131 Petrol Borsas\u0131, New York Ticaret Borsas\u0131, Bat\u0131 Teksas Ham Petrol Arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (West Texas Intermediate crude), Norve\u00e7 Brent Ham Petrol ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirliklerinde kurulu Dubai Ham Petrol. B\u00fct\u00fcn bu borsalarda ham petrol i\u015flemleri dolar \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmekteydi. \u0130lk iki borsan\u0131n sahipleri ABD \u015firketleri idi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kuraca\u011f\u0131 ve avro \u00fczerinden kotasyonlar\u0131n yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 Borsa, bu be\u015f borsaya ciddi bir rakip olabilecek ve petrol ticaretini dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir uluslararas\u0131 rezerv paraya k\u0131smen de olsa kayd\u0131rabilecekti. Kald\u0131 ki, \u0130ran bu borsa projesi \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce 2003 ilkbahar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak Avrupa ve Asya pazarlar\u0131na avro kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flara da ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131[51]. Di\u011fer taraftan, \u0130ran birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce Rusya ve Katar\u2019a do\u011fal gaz OPEC\u2019i kurmay\u0131 da \u00f6nermi\u015fti. Ancak bu \u00f6neri o tarihlerde s\u0131cak bir yank\u0131 bulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu bilgiler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Libya\u2019ya NATO \u015femsiyesi alt\u0131nda yap\u0131lan harek\u00e2t ile Kaddafi\u2019nin iktidardan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve i\u00e7 karga\u015faya s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi ve halen dahi istikrar\u0131n sa\u011flanamamas\u0131nda Libya petrollerini denetleme, petrol\u00fcn dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir para ile ticaretine olanak tan\u0131mamak endi\u015felerinin \u00f6n planda oldu\u011fu sonucuna var\u0131labilir. Libya, yap\u0131s\u0131 itibariyle silahl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eki\u015fmesi i\u00e7inde olan bir\u00e7ok kabilelerden olu\u015fan \u00fclke idi, bu yap\u0131y\u0131 bir lider etraf\u0131nda birle\u015fmeyi Kaddafi ancak 15 y\u0131lda ba\u015farabilmi\u015fti. Onun y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan kaotik yap\u0131y\u0131 yeniden bir birlik haline getirebilmek \u00e7ok uzun y\u0131llar alabilecektir[52].<\/p>\n

Yemen<\/strong><\/p>\n

Son aylar\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen olaylar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 di\u011fer bir \u00fclke Yemen\u2019dir. 2014 Mart ay\u0131na Yemen\u2019in ba\u015fkentine sald\u0131r\u0131p ele ge\u00e7iren isyanc\u0131 Huti\u2019lerin \u015eii inanc\u0131na sahip olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan desteklendikleri ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. \u0130ran bu iddialar\u0131 reddetmektedir. Yaz\u0131l\u0131 ve g\u00f6rsel bas\u0131nda, uzun s\u00fcredir insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ile s\u00fcrekli Yemen\u2019in bombaland\u0131\u011f\u0131, Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130srail sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n Yemen\u2019e bomba ya\u011fd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu bombalardan bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn par\u00e7a tesirli bombalardan olu\u015ftu\u011fu, Suudi Arabistan ordusunun Yemen\u2019e girmek \u00fczere oldu\u011fu, Yemen a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131na ABD u\u00e7ak gemileri e\u015fli\u011finde bir filonun konu\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131la gelmektedir. Yemen neden b\u00f6yle sald\u0131r\u0131lara hedef konumuna gelmi\u015ftir? Yine konuya a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131 ile bu maddelerin d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na sunum yollar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakal\u0131m. Harita 1 ve Tablo 7 den de an\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere bir k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Yemen\u2019in di\u011ferini ise Cibuti\u2019nin denetledi\u011fi Bab-el-Mendeb bo\u011faz\u0131ndan 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00fcnde 3.5 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7erken, 2030 y\u0131l\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131nan boyut 5.7 milyon varile \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Bu veriler, bo\u011faz\u0131n ve bo\u011faz\u0131 denetleyen co\u011frafyan\u0131n stratejik \u00f6neminin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bu noktada, hem Bab-el-Mendeb hem de Malakka bo\u011fazlar\u0131 i\u00e7in, ABD Amirali Alfred Thayus Mahan\u2019\u0131n (1840-1914) \u015fu s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc an\u0131msamak gerekir; \u201cHint Okyanusu\u2019nda kim h\u00e2kimiyeti sa\u011flarsa, uluslararas\u0131 arenada \u00f6nde gelen oyuncu olur.[53]\u201d Bu bo\u011faz, iki bak\u0131mdan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. \u0130lki, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7\u0131kan petrol\u00fcn bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerine ge\u00e7i\u015f yoludur. \u0130kincisi ise, \u00c7in\u2019e Libya\u2019dan, Cezayir\u2019den, Somali\u2019den giden petrol tankerlerinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi yerdir. Bu bak\u0131mdan kimin denetiminde olmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. ABD, 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda Cibuti\u2019de bir donanma \u00fcss\u00fc kurmu\u015ftur. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde, Yemen Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ali Abdullah Saleh ile ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Komutan\u0131 aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda Yemen\u2019in Aden K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki Socotra adas\u0131nda korsanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemek ve el-Kaide \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc ile m\u00fccadele etmek \u00fczere ABD\u2019nin askeri \u00fcs kurmas\u0131na izin verdi\u011fi yaz\u0131lmaktad\u0131r[54]. \u0130\u015fin ilginci, Yemen Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile ABD Merkez Komutan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Socotra adas\u0131na askeri \u00fcs kurulmas\u0131 \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya varmalar\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce Rusya Yemen H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ile konu\u015farak an\u0131lan adada askeri \u00fcs kurma g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Zira, so\u011fuk sava\u015f d\u00f6neminde Yemen iki ayr\u0131 devlete b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fken, G\u00fcney Yemen h\u00fck\u00fcmranl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olan Socotra adas\u0131nda Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019ne ait bir askeri \u00fcs mevcuttu[55]. Bu da Harita 6 dan da g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, Aden K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki adan\u0131n Bab-el-Mendeb bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n denetlenmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ne denli stratejik \u00f6neme sahip oldu\u011funu ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Bab-el-Mendeb\u2019in Cibuti k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131nda ise, ABD Camp Lemonnier deniz \u00fcss\u00fc bulunmaktad\u0131r. 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD ve Cibuti aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonucunda, bu deniz \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc ABD donanmas\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131n tarama, insani ama\u00e7lar ve ter\u00f6rizme kar\u015f\u0131 operasyonlarda kullanmas\u0131 kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ABD u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n hava meydan\u0131n\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131 da kabul edilmi\u015ftir[56]. Yemen\u2019i bombalayan insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n Cibuti\u2019deki hava meydanlar\u0131ndan kalkd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. Yemen\u2019de ya\u015fanmakta olan sava\u015f\u0131n temelinde Bab-el Mendeb\u2019in ve Socotra adas\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc elde tutma stratejik sava\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar Yemen\u2019in Suudi Arabistan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerinde bulunan zengin petrol yataklar\u0131n\u0131n ele ge\u00e7irilmesi veya denetlemesinin de oldu\u011fu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. Buna g\u00f6re, Yemen\u2019in Masila ve Shabwa b\u00f6lgelerinde d\u00fcnyan\u0131n gelecekteki 50 y\u0131ll\u0131k gereksinimini kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek hen\u00fcz el s\u00fcr\u00fclmemi\u015f s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte petrol rezervi bulundu\u011fu uluslararas\u0131 petrol \u015firketlerince ileri s\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yaz\u0131lmaktad\u0131r[57].<\/p>\n

Harita 6<\/strong><\/p>\n

Haritaya kaynaktaki yaz\u0131dan ula\u015f\u0131labilir<\/p>\n

Kaynak:<\/strong>\u00a0Michael Choussudovski\u2019nin Global Research.Ca sitesinde yay\u0131nlanan \u201cYemen and the militarization of srategic waterways. Securing US control over Socotra island and Gulf of Aden\u201d Feb.7, 2010.<\/p>\n

Benzeri bir tez ise \u00c7inli bir akademisyen ile Rusya\u2019da petrol m\u00fchendisli\u011fi ve jeoloji \u00f6\u011frenimi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f bir Arap m\u00fchendisin birlikte yapt\u0131klar\u0131 bilimsel bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, Suudi Arabistan topraklar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 25 ini kapsayan ve bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de Yemen\u2019de bulunan 582,750 kilometre karelik Rub Al-Khali \u00e7\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcn Yemen topraklar\u0131nda kalan k\u0131sm\u0131nda, petrol ve do\u011fal gaz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin bulgular\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r[58]. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7\u00f6l\u00fcn Yemen topraklar\u0131nda kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn, 1994 ve 1997 y\u0131llar\u0131nda \u00e7ekilen hava ve uzay g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri ile \u00c7in\u2019de ayn\u0131 jeolojik yap\u0131ya sahip alanlar\u0131n uzay g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerini y\u00fczlerce foto\u011fraf temelinde incelemi\u015flerdir. Bu incelemelerinde \u00c7\u00f6l\u00fcn Yemen\u2019de kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde do\u011fal asfalt benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerine rastlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve bu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerin \u00c7in\u2019in Kuzeybat\u0131s\u0131ndaki Kelamayi petrol sahas\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclere \u00e7ok benzedi\u011fini saptad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtmi\u015flerdir. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol rezervinin bulundu\u011fu Ghawar havzas\u0131n\u0131n da Rub Al-Khali \u00e7\u00f6l\u00fc \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu da ifade etmi\u015flerdir. Bu iki farkl\u0131 kaynaklardaki bilgiler e\u011fer do\u011fru ise, Yemen\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sava\u015f\u0131n ve bu ba\u011flamda Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00e7ok aktif konumunun anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 kolayla\u015facakt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fin ilginci, Yarbay Ralph Peters\u2019\u0131n Harita 2 de yer alan Ortado\u011fu yap\u0131lanmas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Yemen\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fledi\u011fi de g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n

Suriye<\/strong><\/p>\n

Suriye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Arap-\u0130srail sava\u015flar\u0131nda aktif rol alm\u0131\u015f, \u0130srail\u2019le sava\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve Golan tepeleri ve civar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130srail\u2019in i\u015fgaline engel olamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Golan tepeleri halen dahi \u0130srail i\u015fgali alt\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bu toprak kayb\u0131, \u0130srail Suriye ili\u015fkilerinin daima bir gerginlik ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fcvensizlik i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrmesine neden oldu. Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de son y\u0131llarda ke\u015ffedilen petrol ve do\u011fal gaz rezervlerinin bulundu\u011fu alanlarda s\u00f6z hakk\u0131 da olma konusu da \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Arap Bahar\u0131 protestolar\u0131 Suriye\u2019de 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u0130lkbahar\u2019\u0131nda ba\u015flad\u0131. Suriye\u2019deki S\u00fcnni M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlardan baz\u0131 gruplar Alevi k\u00f6kenli Ba\u015far Esad\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6netimine kar\u015f\u0131 protesto g\u00f6sterilerine ba\u015flad\u0131. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra \u00d6zg\u00fcr Suriye Ordusu ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda Esad kar\u015f\u0131tlar\u0131 yap\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda, Suriye\u2019ye El-Kaide militanlar\u0131 geldi\/getirildi, bunlardan bir k\u0131sm\u0131 Libya\u2019daki ayaklanmalarda aktif rol alm\u0131\u015f \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma deneyimli militanlard\u0131. Libya\u2019dan g\u00f6nderilen bu militanlarla birlikte ayr\u0131ca Bengazi Liman\u0131ndan Suriye\u2019nin Banyas ve Borj limanlar\u0131na Libya askeri depolar\u0131ndan keskin ni\u015fanc\u0131 silahlar\u0131, RPG ve 125-155 milimetrelik howitzer misillerinin de g\u00f6nderildi\u011fi ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[59]. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonra El-Kaide \u00e7izgisinde olan El-Nusra Cephesi kuruldu. Daha sonra da Irak\u2019ta kurulan Irak-Suriye \u0130slam Devleti \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc bir yandan Irak\u2019taki eylemlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Suriye topraklar\u0131nda da eylemlerine ba\u015flad\u0131 ve giderek do\u011fu ve kuzey Suriye topraklar\u0131na egemen olma m\u00fccadelesine girdi. Irak-Suriye \u0130slam Devleti \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 topraklar geni\u015fledik\u00e7e, bas\u0131nda yer alan haberlere g\u00f6re bu \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fc hedef alan havadan bombalamalar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclse de \u00f6rg\u00fct kontrol\u00fc alt\u0131ndaki topraklar\u0131 geni\u015fletmeye devam etti\u011fi de belirtilmektedir[60]. Suriye\u2019ye gelen veya g\u00f6nderilen Arap Bahar\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde, bana g\u00f6re, yine petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n ve d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na sunum yollar\u0131n\u0131n denetlenme kavgas\u0131 ve stratejik co\u011frafyaya egemen olma arzular\u0131 yatmaktayd\u0131. Suriye\u2019deki Ba\u015far Esad y\u00f6netiminin ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerini rahats\u0131z eden tutumlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131saca an\u0131msamakta fayda g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. Suriye, \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcredir \u00f6nce Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ve daha sonra da ard\u0131l\u0131 Rusya ile yak\u0131n ili\u015fki i\u00e7inde bulundu. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi d\u00f6neminde Tartus liman\u0131nda donanma \u00fcss\u00fc kurmas\u0131na izin verilmi\u015fti. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sonra \u00fcss\u00fc Rusya kullanmaya devam etti. Akdeniz\u2019de Rus askeri \u00fcss\u00fc varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130srail, ABD ve NATO \u00fclkelerini rahats\u0131z etmekteydi. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n ve \u0130srail\u2019in Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de ke\u015ffettikleri do\u011fal gaz\u0131n Suriye ve T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa pazarlar\u0131na sunulmas\u0131 da g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015fti. Ancak \u0130srail ile ili\u015fkileri ciddi sorun i\u00e7eren Suriye\u2019deki Esad rejimi bu projenin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmekteydi ve o nedenle de devrilmesi gerekiyordu. Di\u011fer taraftan, Basra K\u00f6rfezinde, \u0130ran ve Katar\u2019\u0131n aras\u0131ndaki Pars do\u011fal gaz sahas\u0131 d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck gaz sahalar\u0131ndan birisidir. \u0130ran bu gaz sahas\u0131ndan \u00fcretece\u011fi gaz\u0131 Ba\u011fdat ve Suriye \u00fczerinden Akdeniz\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131racak bir boru hatt\u0131 ile ba\u015fta Avrupa olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na sunmak arzusunda idi. Bu konuda boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ece\u011fi \u00fclkelerle ilke anla\u015fmas\u0131na var\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve \u0130ran s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7inde boru hatlar\u0131 d\u00f6\u015fenmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu proje \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u00f6z sahibi k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 gibi Ba\u011fdat rejimine ve Suriye\u2019ye de \u00f6nemli bir gelir kayna\u011f\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131. Bu projenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, aynen Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Karadeniz\u2019den ge\u00e7erek Bulgaristan \u00fczerinde Avrupa\u2019ya uzanacak G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m boru hatt\u0131 kadar ABD\u2019nin Avrupa pazarlar\u0131na do\u011fal gaz ihra\u00e7 projesine de darbe vurmu\u015f olacakt\u0131. Di\u011fer taraftan, ayn\u0131 Pars sahas\u0131ndan do\u011fal gaz \u00fcreterek Suudi Arabistan, \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Suriye ve T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa pazar\u0131na gaz pazarlamay\u0131 planlayan Katar\u2019a da \u00e7ok ciddi bir rakip olacakt\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, Suriye \u00fc\u00e7 do\u011fal gaz projesinin d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. O nedenle de \u00fclkenin y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran ve Rusya ile yak\u0131n politik ili\u015fki i\u00e7inde bulunan Ba\u015far Esad\u2019\u0131n elinden al\u0131narak Bat\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir y\u00f6netime devredilmesi gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fclmekteydi. Suriye\u2019de \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan i\u00e7 sava\u015f, yeni bir boru hatt\u0131 projesi i\u00e7in Kuzey Irak Yerel Y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne de \u00fcmit ortam\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu y\u00f6nde at\u0131lan ilk ad\u0131mlardan birisi Kuzey Suriye\u2019de PYD\u2019nin y\u00f6netimi ele almas\u0131, Kuzey Irak petrollerinin bir boru hatt\u0131 ile Akdeniz k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na ula\u015farak d\u00fcnya pazarlar\u0131na sunulmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu projenin ya\u015fama ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in de Ba\u015far Esad rejimi engel olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmekteydi. Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n nedenleri konusunda daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgi edinmek isteyenler www.hikmetulugbay.com\/?p=471 ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u201cYeni Ortado\u011fu Projesinin Enerji Denkleminde Suriye\u2019nin Yeri ve \u00d6nemi\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 incelememe g\u00f6z atabilirler. Bu konu\u015fmam\u0131 sonland\u0131rma a\u015famas\u0131na geldi\u011fimde internet ortam\u0131nda ABD\u2019de \u201cHukuki G\u00f6zetim\u201d isimli bir grup bilgi edinme hakk\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde a\u00e7t\u0131klar\u0131 dava sonucunda \u201cSavunma \u0130stihbarat Kurumu\u201dna ait bir belgenin gizlili\u011fini kald\u0131rtm\u0131\u015f ve yay\u0131nlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. A\u011fustos 2012 tarihli bu belgede, Selefilerin, M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015flerin, Irak\u2019taki El-Kaide\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen unsurlar\u0131 olduklar\u0131na i\u015faret edilmektedir. Suriye muhalefetini destekleyen Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri, Basra K\u00f6rfezi \u00fclkeleri ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, Esad rejimini izole edebilmek i\u00e7in, Suriye\u2019nin do\u011fusunda Hasaka ve Der Zor b\u00f6lgesinde bir \u201cSelefi\u201d y\u00f6netiminin kurulmas\u0131na olumlu bakt\u0131klar\u0131 belirtilmektedir[61]. Belgenin devam\u0131nda, b\u00f6yle bir hipotezin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son olaylar ve veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edilmekte ve b\u00f6yle bir b\u00f6lgenin aynen Libya\u2019da ge\u00e7ici H\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in Bingazi\u2019nin se\u00e7ilmesi gibi, uluslararas\u0131 koruma alt\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli bir korunma alan\u0131 olabilece\u011fi ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir. Orijinal belgenin pdf metnine internet ortam\u0131nda eri\u015filebilmektedir. Gizlili\u011fi kald\u0131r\u0131lan bu belge Suriye\u2019deki i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131n ne \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmekte oldu\u011funa \u00f6nemli bir \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutmaktad\u0131r. Arap Bahar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda bulunan \u0130ran, M\u0131s\u0131r ve bu kapsamda olmasa bile Nijerya ve Venezuela gibi \u00fclkelerdeki petrol ve do\u011fal gaz sava\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin olarak da bilgi sunmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fc, ancak bu hem konu\u015fma boyutunu \u00e7ok uzatacak hem de benzeri bilgilerin tekrar\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131. O nedenle \u00fclke baz\u0131nda incelemeye son verip, bu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda ABD ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerince en b\u00fcy\u00fck rakip olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00c7in\u2019in petrol, do\u011fal gaz ve stratejik mineral kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ele ge\u00e7irme giri\u015fimleri \u00fczerinde k\u0131saca durmak istiyorum.<\/p>\n

\u00c7in<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tablo 4 den an\u0131msanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in beklentilere g\u00f6re, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ham petrol t\u00fcketiminde ve ithalat\u0131nda d\u00fcnyada 1 inci s\u0131ray\u0131 al\u0131rken, do\u011fal gaz g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u00fcketiminde yine 4 \u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada olacak, ancak 2006-2035 d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6sterece\u011fi do\u011fal gaz talep art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131k ara birinci konumda olacakt\u0131r. Bu boyutta petrol ve do\u011fal gaz talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in \u00c7in ne \u00f6nlemler almakta ve ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere Bat\u0131 \u00fclkelerini huzursuz eden hangi ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmaktad\u0131r, \u015fimdi k\u0131saca ona g\u00f6z atal\u0131m. \u00c7in, 1990 y\u0131l\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak Afrika \u00fclkeleri ile yo\u011fun ticaret, yat\u0131r\u0131m, teknoloji transferi, kalk\u0131nma yard\u0131mlar\u0131 ve e\u011fitim alanlar\u0131nda ili\u015fkilere girmi\u015f ve alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in, 1996 y\u0131l\u0131nda deniza\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u00fclkelere 410 milyon dolarl\u0131k kalk\u0131nma yard\u0131m\u0131 yaparken, bu rakam 2007 de 3 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00c7in\u2019in Afrika \u00fclkelerine verdi\u011fi ekonomik yard\u0131mlar da 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki 800 milyon dolar d\u00fczeyinden 2009-2012 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in 10 milyar dolar taahh\u00fct d\u00fczeyine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[62]. Bu yard\u0131mlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda ilerleyen y\u0131llarda \u00c7in kamu \u015firketlerinin \u00fclkelere do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda da \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015flar yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Nitekim, Washington\u2019da kurulu K\u00fcresel Kalk\u0131nma Merkezi\u2019nin veri taban\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in 2000-2015 d\u00f6neminde Afrika\u2019daki 50 \u00fclkeye 75 milyar dolar yard\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr[63]. Bu s\u00fcrecin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda 1993 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in net petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumuna girmi\u015f ve ithalat\u0131n her ge\u00e7en y\u0131l h\u0131zla artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile petrol \u00fcretebilece\u011fi yabanc\u0131 \u00fclkeler aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na da girmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Ba\u015fbakanlar\u0131 ve bir\u00e7ok bakan\u0131 2000 li y\u0131llarda Afrika \u00fclkelerine say\u0131s\u0131z ziyarette bulunmu\u015f, ziyaret ettikleri \u00fclkelere ekonomik yard\u0131m ve yat\u0131r\u0131m s\u00f6zleri vermi\u015f ve ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in devlet adamlar\u0131n\u0131n sadece 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda ziyaret etti\u011fi Afrika \u00fclkelerinin say\u0131s\u0131 48 dir[64]. Bu ba\u011flamda Kas\u0131m 2006 ay\u0131nda, Pekin\u2019de 40 Afrika \u00fclkesinin Devlet Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131n\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile zirve toplant\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu toplant\u0131da iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc ticaret hacminin geli\u015ftirilmesi yan\u0131nda, \u00c7in\u2019in Afrika \u00fclkelerindeki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve ekonomik yard\u0131mlar\u0131 konusunda da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in Nijerya\u2019ya 8 milyar dolarl\u0131k yard\u0131m karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in CNOC petrol \u015firketi 2.270 milyon dolara Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n denizdeki petrol sahalar\u0131nda petrol \u00fcretiminden y\u00fczde 45 lik bir pay sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[65]. \u00c7in ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde G\u00fcney Afrika Petrol \u015firketi ile de bir anla\u015fma imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in Afrika\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik bu yayg\u0131n petrol haklar\u0131 elde etme ve ekonomi yard\u0131m program\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, ABD 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda Afrika Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kurmu\u015ftur. \u00c7in\u2019in, Sudan\u2019a insan haklar\u0131 ihlalleri su\u00e7lamalar\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Bat\u0131l\u0131 petrol \u015firketlerinin bu \u00fclkeden uzak durdu\u011fu d\u00f6nemden ba\u015flayarak, G\u00fcney Sudan\u2019\u0131n 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmesine de\u011fin an\u0131lan \u00fclkeye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n toplam\u0131 20 milyar dolar dolay\u0131ndad\u0131r. G\u00fcney Sudan\u2019\u0131n ayr\u0131lmas\u0131ndan bu yana bu yeni \u00fclkeye yap\u0131lan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ise 8 milyar dolar boyutuna eri\u015fmi\u015ftir[66]. Sudan\u2019a yap\u0131lan bu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar di\u011fer Afrika \u00fclkelerine oldu\u011fu gibi sadece petrole y\u00f6nelik olmay\u0131p alt yap\u0131dan rafineri \u015firketine ve petrol \u00fcretim anla\u015fmalar\u0131na de\u011fin geni\u015f bir yelpazeyi kapsam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. G\u00fcney Sudan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etti\u011finde \u00c7in derhal tan\u0131m\u0131\u015f, t\u00f6renlerine kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve Hartum H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ile G\u00fcney Sudan b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in ge\u00e7mi\u015fte imzalanan anla\u015fmalar\u0131 da yeniden m\u00fczakere etmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu arada G\u00fcney Sudan\u2019a g\u00f6nderilen Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler Bar\u0131\u015f G\u00fcc\u00fcne \u00c7in 700 ki\u015fiden olu\u015fan bir askeri birlik vermeyi kabul etmi\u015f ve ayr\u0131ca, \u00c7in D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 G\u00fcney Sudan\u2019da sava\u015fan taraflarla arabuluculuk yapmak \u00fczere 2015 in ba\u015flar\u0131nda bu \u00fclkeye g\u00f6nderilmi\u015ftir [67]. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131\u2019n\u0131n verilerine g\u00f6re, 2013 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck ham petrol gereksiniminin 2.9 milyon varilini veya y\u00fczde 52 sini Ortado\u011fu\u2019dan sa\u011flarken, 1.3 milyon varil veya y\u00fczde 23 \u00fcn\u00fc de Angola, Ekvator Gine\u2019si, Kongo Cumhuriyeti, Sudan ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere Cezayir, \u00c7ad, Gabon, Kenya, Liberya ve Libya\u2019dan sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[68]. Petrol d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda stratejik mineral ve maden de ithal etmekte oldu\u011fu Afrika\u2019ya \u00c7in H\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve kamu bankalar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile 2025 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 1 trilyon dolarl\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fta uluslararas\u0131 otoyollar, demiryollar\u0131 ve hava ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 olmak \u00fczere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla alt yap\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in aktarmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmektedir[69]. \u00c7in halen Afrika\u2019da 1,046 projenin tamamlanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f, 2,233 kilometre demiryolu ve 3,530 kilometre karayolu in\u015faat\u0131n\u0131 tamamlayarak[70] bir yandan Afrika \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131ndaki ticarete katk\u0131da bulunurken di\u011fer yandan da Afrika \u00fclkeleri ile kendi ticaretini kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak ve verimli k\u0131lacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, \u00c7in Afrika \u00fclkelerine kendi i\u015f\u00e7ilerini de g\u00f6ndermi\u015ftir. \u00c7in\u2019in, Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar da ABD\u2019ni tedirgin etmektedir. Zira ABD, 2 Aral\u0131k 1823 tarihinde Ba\u015fkan James Monroe\u2019nun, Kongre\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma ile \u201cAmerikan K\u0131talar\u0131 bundan b\u00f6yle herhangi bir Avrupal\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00f6m\u00fcrgele\u015ftirilemez[71]\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan beri K\u0131talarda kurulu devletleri bir anlamda arka bah\u00e7esi olarak g\u00f6re gelmi\u015ftir. \u00c7in \u015fimdi bu k\u0131talardaki \u00fclkelerde oldu\u011fu kadar ABD\u2019de dahi yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in CNOOC petrol \u015firketi 2005 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen petrol \u015firketlerinden UNOCAL\u2019\u0131 18.5 milyar dolara sat\u0131n almak istemi\u015f ise de, konu ulusal \u00e7\u0131karlar anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile Temsilciler Meclisi g\u00fcndemine bile al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ve sat\u0131lmas\u0131na izin verilmemi\u015f ve \u015firket i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck teklif veren yine ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen petrol \u015firketi Chevron\u2019a sat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[72]. Ancak, \u00c7in\u2019in Amerikan Hazinesi\u2019nin bor\u00e7 ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ve hatta memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Mart 2015 tarihi itibariyle \u00c7in\u2019in sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Hazine ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri 1,261 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[73]. Yabanc\u0131 \u00fclkelerin \u00c7in\u2019e yapt\u0131klar\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n hacmi 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Buna g\u00f6re 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019ne 86 milyar dolar boyutunda do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015fken, \u00c7in\u2019e 128 ve Hong-Kong\u2019a 111 milyar dolarl\u0131k do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmu\u015ftur[74]. \u00c7in\u2019e do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n artmas\u0131 bu \u00fclkenin y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine katk\u0131da bulunurken, ileri teknolojilerin gelmesine de yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7me s\u00fcrecine de ivme katmaktad\u0131r. Bu geli\u015fmenin ABD\u2019yi mutlu etmesi beklenemez. \u00c7in petrol \u015firketleri Kanada\u2019da 24 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bedel \u00f6deyerek OPTI (CNOOC) 2.1, Dayligth Energy Ltd. (Sinopec) 2.2, Syncrude Canada Ltd (Sinopec) 4.65 ve NEXES Inc. (CNOOC) 15.1 milyar dolara sat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[75]. \u00c7in askeri heyetleri 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda Latin Amerika ve Karayibler b\u00f6lgesindeki meslekta\u015flar\u0131na 20 ziyaret yapm\u0131\u015flad\u0131r[76]. Yine 2004 y\u0131l\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak \u00c7in ba\u015fta Venezuela olmak \u00fczere Latin Amerika \u00fclkelerine silah sat\u0131mlar\u0131na da ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r, bu ba\u011flamda Venezuela\u2019ya sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131 satma \u00f6nerisinde de bulunmu\u015ftur. Venezuela \u00c7in\u2019den uzun mesafeli savunma radar sistemi sat\u0131n almak \u00fczere, anla\u015fma imzalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[77]. Venezuela ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki bu askeri ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015fmesinde ABD\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce Venezuela\u2019ya satm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu sava\u015f u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n yedek par\u00e7alar\u0131n\u0131 vermemesi ve \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n satmas\u0131n\u0131 da engellemesinin etkisi olmu\u015f, hatta Chavez bu Amerikan u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131 K\u00fcba veya \u00c7in\u2019e verme tehdidinde bile bulunmu\u015ftu[78]. \u00c7in, 2007 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana Venezuela\u2019ya 50 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan kredi vermi\u015ftir. Bu kredileri halen 20 milyar dolar\u0131 kullan\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f durumdad\u0131r. \u00c7in, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda, Venezuela ile 20 milyar dolarl\u0131k yat\u0131r\u0131m paketi \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya varm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[79]. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 itibariyle \u00c7in\u2019in Latin Amerika ve Karayibler b\u00f6lgesine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar 65 milyar\u0131 a\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130zleyen y\u0131llarda \u00c7in\u2019in bu \u00fclkelere y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 artmaya devam etmi\u015ftir. Di\u011fer taraftan \u00c7in\u2019in bu \u00fclkelere 2005-2011 d\u00f6neminde a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 krediler ise 75 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindedir[80]. \u00c7in\u2019in Sinopec \u015firketi, Ekim 2005 ay\u0131nda \u0130ran ile s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz sat\u0131n almak \u00fczere, 70-100 milyar dolarl\u0131k anla\u015fma yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131[81]. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 sonlar\u0131nda, \u0130ran\u2019a yapaca\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlarla ilgili kaynak tutar\u0131n\u0131 25 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinden 50 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130ran yetkilileri taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[82]. \u0130ran ile ABD\u2019nin n\u00fckleer silah \u00fcretiminin durdurulmas\u0131 ve ambargonun kalkmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinden ba\u015flayarak, \u00c7in \u0130ran\u2019da yeniden enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yapma konusunda giri\u015fimlerine ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ba\u011flamda \u00c7in\u2019in CNPC ve Sinopec \u015firketleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla Kuzistan ve Kuzey Azadegan petrol sahalar\u0131 ile ilgili olarak her biri i\u00e7in 2 \u015fer milyar dolar olmak \u00fczere s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzalam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r[83]. \u00c7in 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la oranla \u0130ran\u2019dan yapmakta oldu\u011fu ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 48 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Di\u011fer taraftan, \u00c7in\u2019in \u0130ran ile aras\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nemlerden kalan sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da belirtilmektedir. Ayr\u0131ca Suudi Arabistan Kral\u0131 Abdullah\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019i 2006 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015flar\u0131nda ziyaret etmesinden \u00fc\u00e7 ay sonra \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hu Jintao Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ziyarette bulunmu\u015ftur. Bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ziyaretlerde askeri alanlarda i\u015fbirli\u011fi yan\u0131nda petrol konusunda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n da ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr[84]. Yukar\u0131da da de\u011findi\u011fim \u00fczere Rusya ile \u00c7in, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e y\u0131lda 68 milyar metre k\u00fcp do\u011fal gaz ihra\u00e7 etmek \u00fczere iki ayr\u0131 boru hatt\u0131 in\u015fas\u0131 \u00fczerine anla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 ve 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda s\u00f6zle\u015fme imzalam\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Son aylarda, bu projenin ertelenebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 yaz\u0131lar yay\u0131nlansa da ortaya somut bir kan\u0131t sunulmamaktad\u0131r[85]. Bu arada \u00c7in\u2019in G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019nde yapay bir ada in\u015fa etmesi ve buraya top\u00e7u bataryalar\u0131 yerle\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 ABD\u2019nin Savunma Bakan\u0131 d\u00fczeyinde tepki vermesine de yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r[86]. Bu nokta akl\u0131n\u0131za, iyi de \u00c7in bu milyarlarca dolar\u0131 nereden buluyor sorusu gelmi\u015f olabilir. Bunun yan\u0131t\u0131 da \u00c7in\u2019in izledi\u011fi ekonomik politikalar sonucu, y\u0131llardan beri s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi fazlas\u0131 vermesi sonucu sahip oldu\u011fu uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerinin boyutu 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda 3, 750 milyar dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in elindeki bu rezervlerle bir yandan yukar\u0131da \u00e7ok k\u0131sa olarak de\u011findi\u011fimiz d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011findeki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yapar ve ABD Hazinesi\u2019ne bolca bor\u00e7 verirken, alt\u0131n rezervlerini de son y\u0131llarda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rma yoluna gitmi\u015ftir. Baz\u0131 tahminlere g\u00f6re, \u00c7in\u2019in halen elindeki alt\u0131n stokunun 30,000 ton oldu\u011fu ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[87]. May\u0131s 2015 ay\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde, \u00c7in Ulusal Alt\u0131n Grubu \u015eirketi, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n madenlerini i\u015fleten \u015firketlerden ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 10 uncu b\u00fcy\u00fck alt\u0131n madencisi olan Polyus Alt\u0131n \u015firketi ile alt\u0131n madencili\u011finde teknoloji de\u011fi\u015fimi, maden yataklar\u0131 i\u015fletmecili\u011finde ve malzeme sa\u011flamada i\u015fbirli\u011fini geli\u015ftirmek \u00fczere bir anla\u015fma imzalad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu anla\u015fma, \u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 X\u0130 Jinping\u2019in 8-10 May\u0131s 2015 tarihinde Rusya\u2019ya ziyaret s\u0131ras\u0131nda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131nda enerji, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, uzay, finansman alanlar\u0131nda imzalanan di\u011fer ekonomik i\u015fbirli\u011fi anla\u015fmalar\u0131ndan sadece birisidir.[88] Bu geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in, Kuzey Bat\u0131\u2019daki Xi\u2019an kentinde antik ipek yolunun ge\u00e7ti\u011fi \u00fclkelerin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile Alt\u0131n Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Fon\u2019u olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ve bu fonun Shanghai Alt\u0131n Borsa\u2019s\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6netilece\u011fi ve \u00fc\u00e7 a\u015famada 16.1 milyar dolar boyutunda kaynak toplamas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmektedir[89]. \u00c7in\u2019in alt\u0131n stoklar\u0131 ve artmaya devam eden d\u00f6viz rezervleri yan\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ile bir de Alt\u0131n Fonu kurmas\u0131 \u00fclkenin b\u00f6lge ticareti ile d\u00fcnya ticaretinde yeni at\u0131l\u0131mlar ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n habercisi olabilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llarda, \u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zla artan d\u00f6viz rezervleri ve ABD ile iki ticaretinde h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ticaret fazlas\u0131 vermesi ABD\u2019ni rahats\u0131z etti\u011fi i\u00e7in zaman zaman \u00c7in\u2019in paras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini dolara kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fckseltmesini talep etmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00c7in bu isteklere seyrek olarak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yan\u0131t vermi\u015ftir. \u00c7in\u2019in biraz \u00f6nce de\u011finilen son anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019nin tedirginli\u011fini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenebilir. \u00c7in\u2019in \u00f6zellikle Asya \u00fclkeleri ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticarette yuan\u2019\u0131n giderek daha yayg\u0131n olarak kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 da dolar\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 rezerv para olmas\u0131na olumsuz etkiler yapmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in\u2019in yuan\u0131 alt\u0131nla destekleyerek rezerv para olma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc etkileyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ileri s\u00fcr\u00fclmesi de giderek yayg\u0131nla\u015fmaktad\u0131r. ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki huzursuzluklardan birisi de yuan\u2019\u0131n rezerv para konumuna gelmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Son aylarda bas\u0131nda ABD-\u00c7in ve ABD-Rusya aras\u0131nda artan gerginli\u011fin s\u0131cak bir sava\u015fa yol a\u00e7ar m\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir. Asl\u0131nda, petrol ve do\u011fal gaz kaynak sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kapsama alan\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6rnekleri artt\u0131rmak olas\u0131 ancak b\u00f6yle bir yakla\u015f\u0131ma gerek yok, se\u00e7ilen \u00f6rnekler di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde ve alanlarda olabilecekler konusunda yeterli tahminde bulunabilmeye yeterlidir.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6zlerimi Cree K\u0131z\u0131lderililerinin bir atas\u00f6z\u00fc ile bitirmek istiyorum. \u201cAncak, son a\u011fa\u00e7 \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, son nehir zehirlendi\u011finde ve son bal\u0131k tutulduktan sonra paran\u0131n yenilebilecek bir madde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlayabilece\u011fiz.\u201d Te\u015fekk\u00fcr ediyor ve sayg\u0131 sunuyorum.<\/p>\n

Hikmet Ulu\u011fbay<\/p>\n

\n

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Sorry, this entry is only available in Turkish. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.(Bu metin, s\u00fcre s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 nedeniyle Kongre\u2019de \u00f6zet olarak sunulabilmi\u015ftir. Konu\u015fma sonras\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan baz\u0131 bilgiler de eklenmi\u015ftir.) T\u00fcrkiye 20. Uluslararas\u0131 Petrol ve Do\u011fal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[53,49,44],"tags":[92,7523,226,63,67,1009,2698,165,23693,59,11201,79,23694,23695,2671],"views":2491,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40674"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40674"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40674\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40676,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40674\/revisions\/40676"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40674"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40674"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.enerjigazetesi.ist\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40674"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}